The directives of the twentieth congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union for the development of the national economy of the U.S.S.R. during the quinquennium 1956-1960 throw a good deal of light on the evolution of the forest economy and forest industries planned for the coming years.1
1A report on plywood, in the normal series of Commodity Reports included in Unasylva, will appear in Vol. 10, No. 3; This provisional analysis of the U.S.S.R. sixth Five Year Plan has been written by an FAO staff member.
Two features of the plan are of particular interest: the shift away from timber to other commodities as a structural material; and the extent to which increased productivity, more effective use of capacity and more rational use of raw materials are relied upon in achieving the considerable increases in output called for by the plan.
By 1960 it is planned to raise industrial production by 65 percent as compared with 1955. Output of production goods is to rise by 70 percent, that of consumption goods by 60 percent: thus the primacy of production goods is maintained, though the increase in the flow of consumption goods is greater than that envisaged in any of the preceding plans. It is also planned to build at state expense about 205 million square meters of housing during the quinquennium, i.e., nearly twice the amount provided for in the fifth Five Year Plan.
Against these ambitious targets for industrial production, and an equally ambitious target for construction, the increase provided for in the flow of primary forest products seems relatively modest. Removals of industrial wood are to rise from 197 to 264 million cubic meters (or by 34 percent) between 1955 and 1960, and sawnwood output from 58 to 80 million cubic meters (or by 38 percent). This discrepancy between the course of sawnwood consumption and the development of industrial production and building activity parallels the similar movements which have taken place and are continuing in Western Europe and North America.
How are the housing and other constructional targets to be achieved) In the first place, by a very rapid increase in the output of cement and its products. Cement production, which amounted to 22.5 million tons in 1955, is to rise to 55 million tons (or by 145 percent) by 1960.
A principal objective in the building materials industry, states the plan, is the large-scale production of materials and manufacturing goods permitting extensive use of prefabricated elements, e.g., prefabricated articles in reinforced concrete, wall panels, partitioning elements, sanitary equipment, and cladding materials. Thus, for example, the production of framing and other prefabricated elements in concrete is to increase sixfold, while output of lime and bitumen board is to double. The general plan for the building material industry is set out in more detail in the paragraphs dealing with the targets for the several Soviet Republics; elsewhere in the plan, an increased output of wagons for transporting cement is provided for. By 1960, the consumption in building and civil engineering of prefabricated elements in reinforced concrete will rise to 28 million cubic meters, including 7 million cubic meters of prestressed concrete. This calls for a rapid mechanization of building methods, a greatly expanded machinery park for the building industry, the establishment of repair shops, and a concentration of enterprises. There is great emphasis on achieving the maximum economies in the use of wood and metal, and special attention is paid to the development of the building industry in the eastern regions of the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (R.S.F.S.R.).
The mechanization of building operations will be accompanied by rationalization and automation of the building materials industry. In the special chapter devoted to the mechanization and automation of industrial operations, it is laid down that the extraction of non-metalliferous materials will be completely mechanized, that extensive automation will be introduced in the cement industry, and chain production methods instituted on a large scale in the asbestos cement and similar industries. The output of asbestos cement, incidentally, is planned to more than double, reaching 3,050 million standard sheets in 1960.
The replacement of wood by other materials is not restricted to building. The plan for the coal industry provides for reduced wood consumption in mines and a considerable increase in the share of metals and reinforced concrete as mine supports. Similarly, the chapter dealing with transport calls for all necessary measures to prolong the life of wooden sleepers and to make more extensive use of concrete sleepers.
However, in spite of replacement and wood economies. a considerable expansion in the forest industries will be required to achieve the targets set out. To this end, fellings are to be increased and sawmills constructed in the heavily wooded regions. Between 1956 and 1960 additional sawmill capacity amounting to 16.5 million cubic meters is to be brought into service. Further efforts are to be made to reduce seasonality in forest exploitation operations, thus building up a settled all the year round labor force. There is plainly great concern about the amount of labor absorbed by all operations in the forestry and forest products sectors - in felling, hauling and conversion - and the plan aims to mechanize completely the principal felling operations and many of the auxiliary operations. Thus further efforts are to be made to transfer some of the conversion operations from the scene of felling to loading stations on the haulage routes. This will require an increased supply of tractors and high capacity lorries, while permanent sources of energy for the forest industry will be created, notably electric plants operating on wood waste.
In the new plan, special attention is paid to the development of specialization and inter-industry cooperation. Thus no less than 15 sawmills and specialized wood processing enterprises, with a total annual capacity of 4.5 million cubic meters, are to be built for the fabrication of semi-finished goods for the automobile, agricultural machinery, wagon and furniture industries.
The plan, of course, makes no mention of the development of the Soviet Union's timber export potential. Plainly the overwhelming proportion of forest output will, as today, be directed towards satisfying domestic needs. Currently, Soviet sawnwood exports represent only 3 to 4 percent of total production, even though she has now become one of Western Europe's four main suppliers. Yet there are certain aspects of the plan which suggest that more sawnwood could be exported, assuming favorable conditions of trade exist. These indications lie in the details concerning the development of transport and communications.
The volume of goods traffic by rail (in kilometric tons) is planned to rise by 42 percent. To this end, 225,000 new goods wagons will be brought into service, a further 8,100 kilometers of track will be electrified, 6,600 kilometers of existing track will be doubled, and 6,500 kilometers of new track will be built. There is special emphasis on raising the traffic capacity of the Ural region and Siberia, and of the lines connecting the Ural with the Volga, central and eastern regions. Certain of the new lines planned are specifically aimed at facilitating the development of new or existing forest industries, as, for example, those connecting Atehinsk and Abalakovo (in the upper Yenisei area, near Krasnoyarsk), and Mikun and Koslan (on the upper Mezen). New rail construction will also continue in the Karelo-Finnish Republic, where industrial wood removals are planned to rise by 50 percent and wood conversion by 80 percent.
On inland waterways, the volume of goods traffic is to rise by 80 percent. The river and canal fleets will be greatly expanded and inland port facilities, including those on the great Siberian rivers, enlarged and modernized. Thus, in the course of the quinquennium, the Ministry of River and Canal Transport is scheduled to receive tugs and self-propelled boats aggregating 720,000 horsepower and barges of total tonnage 2,245,000 tons.
The volume of sea traffic is to be more than doubled. The maritime cargo fleet will be augmented by 1,140,000 tons (excluding tankers). Bigger and faster diesel-engined cargo boats (including those for the transport of timber) will ensure that an increased proportion of the U.S.S.R.'s sea trade is carried in Soviet ships. Among the maritime ports singled out for special attention in expanding facilities and mechanization, are Leningrad and Murmansk, Vladivostock Vanino (a recently established port near Soviet Harbor on the Gulf of Tartary), and Petropavlovsk in Kamchatka. The construction of the port of Nakhodka, on the sea of Japan,. is to be completed and work continued on the development of the new port of Ozernovski, on the western shore of Kamchatka. Nhkhodka and Slavianka will become important ship repair centers in the Far East.
These developments in transport and communications accord with those aspects of the plan which call for increasing integration of the Soviet economy; they are also consonant with a considerably expanded external trade. Notable is the development of facilities in the Far Eastern territories of the R.S.F.S.R. In fact, a continuation of the eastward shift of the economic center of gravity of the U.S.S.R. is implicit in the targets set - industrial, agricultural and in transport - for the several regions of the R.S.F.S.R. and the various Republics.
As in the previous Five Year Plan, paper production is planned to rise by 48 percent in the course of the next quinquennium. This figure, however, excludes paperboard, of which output was about 500 thousand tons in 1955, and for which a 180 percent increase is scheduled. Thus, if the targets set are achieved, Soviet paper and board production will increase as follows:
|
year
|
Paper |
Board |
TOTAL |
|
in thousand metric tons |
|||
|
1955 |
1 830 |
500 |
2 330 |
|
1960 |
2 720 |
1 400 |
4 120 |
This expansion is much greater than that envisaged in industrial wood fellings, and the text of the plan confirms that, in addition to making greater use of broadleaved species, the pulp mills will convert ever greater quantities of both sawmill and forest waste, as well as non-wood materials, notably reeds. The' plan provides for increased production of fibreboard and chipboard, both of which are so far manufactured on a relatively small scale; both these wood products are destined to play an increasingly important role in the Soviet building industry. An interesting figure in this chapter of the plan is the expansion envisaged in the production of alcohol - no less than 180 percent.
The pattern of paper expansion differs somewhat from that in Europe and North America. Against an increase in total paper output of 46 percent, production of newsprint and printing paper are to rise by 51 and 60 percent respectively. This concords with the 50 percent rise foreshadowed for the newspaper, periodical and book publishing industry. The fact that currently all new book issues, whether fiction or technical, are invariably oversubscribed testifies to the need for a considerable rise in the output of printing and writing papers. Since the production of sundry industrial papers is also to rise sharply, it is evident that a relatively smaller growth in the production of packing and wrapping papers (though not of board) is envisaged. Clearly, not all the factors which have led to the astonishing growth of kraft wrappings in the west are present in the Soviet Union: this may account for the somewhat different pattern of paper growth.
Associated with the plans for the pulp industry is the remarkable growth envisaged in the production of artificial fibres: this is to increase four-fold during the quinquennium, reaching 330,000 tons in 1960. This is in sharp contrast with the plan for natural fibres (cotton, increased by 23 percent; wool, increased by 45 percent), and bears witness to the faith of the Soviet planners in the future of man-made fibres. The share of non-cellulosic fibres is to rise from 9 to 44 thousand tons, while, by 1960, 5,000 tons of glass fibre will be produced.
Full geographical details of the planned pulp and paper expansion are not included in the plan, but the text makes special reference to the Karelo-Finnish Republic and the Eastern regions of the R.S.F.S.R.
In the former, the existing pulp and paper plants at Kondopoga and Segueja are to be expanded, and a new board mill built (as well as an integrated sawmill, wood-processing plant and furniture factory at Novo-Kemskaia). Five new pulp and paper mills and seven rayon factories are to be built in the Eastern regions.
Throughout the plan there is great emphasis on the need to raise labor productivity, make effective use of available capacity, streamline production processed and eliminate waste. Thus, of the planned increases in output of paper and board, it is aimed to realize, by these means, no less than 56 percent and 12 percent respectively.
The forests are not neglected, but in the new plan the emphasis appears to have shifted slightly away from grandiose plans to transform nature towards a greater concentration on the effective management of existing forests. Improvement work is to be carried out over 190 million hectares, 3 million hectares are to be planted with commercially valuable fast-growing species, work contributing to natural regeneration is to be carried out over 3.8 million hectares. The fight against soil erosion and desert encroachment continues: 370,000 hectares are to be planted in gullies and on sandy soils; 460,000 hectares of shelterbelts are to be planted on collective farm lands.
The U.S.S.R. has a forest area per inhabitant well over twice the world average. Within its borders is to be found one-third of the growing stock in all the world's forests currently being exploited. The extracts from the sixth Five Year Plan quoted in the preceding paragraphs show that these forests, and the industries based upon them, will have an important part to play in the development of the Soviet economy in the coming years.
J. C. W.
