a) Summary on the factors of changes (see annex 2)
During the exercise led by Mr Blanchez, the participants could synthesised the factors of changes. These were classified in strong and weak signals, according to the impact they have already had on forestry. First of all, a list was established for every country, then a summary was made for the sub-region as a whole. This was the opportunity to settle all the details of the present questions which were little relevant ten years ago but which will probably be strong in ten years from now. The participants also had the opportunity to reflect about the interpretation of these signals and their implications.
b) A prospective exercise for a "hypothetical country" (see annex 3)
Under Mr Blanchez's coordination, the exercise was carried out around an "hypothetical country", that has been described beforehand. Priority actions to be undertaken in the forestry sector had to be reflected according to two different scenarios: a pessimistic scenario and a more optimistic one. In the 1st case, the actions to be undertaken aim at preparing for the pessimistic scenario or trying to avoid it, and in the second, the objective is to do everything possible to facilitate the charge and to move more easily towards the optimistic option.
Mrs Hayeth Sidhoum, consultant for the North African sub-region, presented a methodological outline to write the sub-regional report and gave details on the next stages.
In the second part of his presentation, the consultant identified the advantages, the drawbacks and the characteristics of a study based on two levels: the national and sub-regional level.
In the third part of the presentation, the consultant reminded the audience of his role and responsibilities concerning the finalisation of national reports - the focal points' coordinator roles and responsibilities for the execution of the sub-regional study were also pointed out.
The activities to be carried out for the next few months in the sub-region are the following:
_Finalising and handing-over of the national prospective reports;
_Reviewing of the national report by the sub-regional consultant;
_ Carrying out of sub-regional thematic studies under the auspices of the African Development Bank from January to March 2001;
_Developing an information exchange network in the sub-region concerning the prospective analysis in the forestry sector; FAO can support such exchange initiatives through its TCDC Programme or through visits of experts;
_Giving support to the sub-regional consultant and other consultants for data collection;
_ Assuring the FOSA focal points participation in the third meeting expected in the course of July 2001, to discuss the final sub-regional report.
At the end of the working sessions, the participants found it necessary to make some suggestions that would facilitate the execution of the FOSA objectives. These suggestions are summed up in the recommendations (see part III).
