Contents - Previous - Next

Coarse grains

Production up 7 percent in 1992

Global output of coarse grains rose 7 percent in 1992. The increase affected all grains except barley, which declined due to a drought in Europe. In the United States, production rose by 27 percent as good weather and lower area reduction requirements resulted in a record maize crop. Similarly, favourable weather boosted yields substantially in countries of the former USSR. However, poor weather in many European countries reduced aggregate output by 18 percent. Elsewhere among developed countries, South Africa experienced one of the worst crops in recent history, which was down 62 percent from an already reduced level in 1991.

Output in the developing countries rose by 6 percent. In Asia, it rose mainly as a result of larger crops in India due to improved weather. In China and Turkey, however, smaller crops were harvested due to drought, while in Thailand, production fell because of reduced plantings. In Latin America, a combination of good weather and larger area boosted production in nearly all major producing countries. Partially offsetting these gains were production shortfalls due to poor weather in Africa. Morocco recorded a two-thirds reduction in output due to drought, and large falls occurred in many countries in the sub-Saharan region, especially Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Contraction of developed country imports dominant

In 1992/93 World trade in coarse grains in 1992/93 (July/June) was 3 percent down on the previous year. In the developed countries, the notable expansion in shipments to South Africa and several countries in Eastern Europe was offset by reduced imports into countries of the former USSR and the EC. By contrast, aggregate imports into the developing countries, particularly in drought-affected Africa, rose by 8 percent. Most of this increase occurred in southern Africa, where even established maize exporters, such as Zambia and Zimbabwe, had to rely on large imports to cover domestic shortfalls. In northern Africa, only Morocco's imports were notably larger, due to a reduced output of barley. In Asia, shipments to the Republic of Korea rose the most, reflecting growing demand by the livestock sector. In contrast imports into Saudi Arabia were reduced, due to lower domestic demand, and into the Islamic Republic of Iran due to larger domestic crops. In Latin America, larger crops in Mexico led to a 17 percent decline in imports while in Venezuela, imports doubled as a result of reduced domestic output.

While the global volume of imports fell in 1992/93, only Canada among the major coarse grain exporters shipped less in 1992/93, largely due to smaller maize and barley harvests. it was among the minor exporting countries that most of the contraction occurred with notably sharp decreases for Hungary, Poland, South Africa, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey and Zimbabwe,

In the calendar year 1992 the global import bill increased by 11 percent to over $16 000 million with a 9 percent increase in volume combined with a small increase in prices. In the developing countries, a much larger increase in their purchases led to a 27 percent leap in their import bill to over $6 000 million.

Utilization expanded in 1992/93

Global coarse grains utilization expanded for the second consecutive year, in 1992/93 it was up 2 percent to 843 million tonnes. Most of the increase was in maize, sorghum and millet. Food consumption grew by 10 million tonnes and feed use by 7 million tonnes. In the developing countries the expansion added 1.5 kg/caput to annual food consumption. However, in the developed countries, coarse grain utilization fell slightly. Significant reductions in feed use occurred in the countries of the former USSR and Eastern Europe as a result of reduced demand in the livestock sector. Additionally, in several countries in Europe, weather-reduced production also contributed to contraction in coarse grain use. By contrast, a bumper crop in the United States lowered prices and induced record levels of feeding.

Stocks rose sharply and prices fell in 1992/93

World coarse grain stocks at the end of the 1992/93 seasons were 21 percent up and at their highest level for four years. The sharpest build-up in inventories occurred in the United States as a result of bumper maize and sorghum crops. In the EC, a major holder of maize and barley stocks, inventories rose slightly in 1992/93. Stocks also expanded in countries of the former USSR following a favourable crop but decreased in Eastern Europe and South Africa as production fell. In the developing countries, aggregate coarse grain carryovers rose slightly with the largest build-up in Latin America following bumper crops. However, in Asia, stocks were drawn down because of higher domestic use and somewhat smaller imports.

International coarse grain prices in 1992/93 remained below 1991/92 levels, on average. The average maize price, as measured by the US export price, fell by 12 percent, to $97 per tonne, the lowest since 1987/88. Average export prices also fell for barley and sorghum.

World production of the main coarse grains

Sharp decline in production estimated for 1993

World production in 1993 was the smallest in five years and 9 percent smaller than the previous year. Most of this decline was related to dramatic reductions in maize crops in the United States mainly due to unfavourable weather. In Europe, however, production rose above the drought-reduced crop of 1992 because of favourable harvests in non-EC countries. In the EC the recovery in yields was offset by a decrease in area reflecting the introduction of a set aside of arable land, initially of 15 percent. Larger crops were estimated for Canada due to a significant expansion of planting resulting from diversion of land from wheat. In South Africa, improved weather conditions brought a recovery in the size of the 1993 crop harvested earlier in that year.

Output in the developing countries also demonstrated a mixed picture in 1993. Total production in Asia declined, largely as a result of reduced crops in China, India and Indonesia. In sub-Saharan Africa, a strong recovery from the 1992 drought-reduced level more than offset a second below-average crop in northern Africa. In Latin America, aggregate output remained above average, though somewhat smaller than in 1992 when record crops were harvested in several countries.

Volume of trade to decline further in 1993/94

A 10 percent contraction in the volume of international trade in coarse grains to 82 million tonnes was forecast for 1993/94, making it the smallest since 1987/88. Most of the contraction was expected to be in the volume of maize traded.

Total imports by the developed countries were forecast to contract by 15 percent, as a result of an anticipated reduction in shipments to South Africa and to nearly all non-EC countries in Europe, where production recovered in 1993.

Aggregate imports into the developing countries in 1993/94 were forecast to decline by 6 percent. Imports were only likely to increase in a few countries, mainly in North Africa, due to reduced crops. Most of the forecast decline in imports was on account of the recovery of sub-Saharan Africa from the 1992 drought. Imports by the developing countries in Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean were not expected to differ much from the previous year.

Export availabilities seemed sufficient to meet the forecast import demand despite a substantial contraction in supplies. In addition, the abundance of low quality wheat would be a substitute for maize in animal feeding, thus reducing import demand for coarse grains.

Global utilization to change little in 1993/94

World coarse grain utilization was forecast to decline slightly in 1993194 to 832 million tonnes. All of the downward adjustment was expected to be in feed use, especially in the United States. The large fall in production there was likely to result in higher domestic prices of coarse grains. This, together with an expected further fall in prices of low-quality wheat, should trigger greater use of wheat and lower use of coarse grains as feed in the United States as well as in the EC. In the developing countries, utilization was forecast to contract, particularly in India following an estimated drop in production and a further substitution of wheat for coarse grains in the diet. By contrast, in sub-Saharan Africa, total use was expected to return to the average level of the years before the 1992/93 drought-affected season. In the developing countries as a whole a slight decline in per caput food consumption of coarse grains was forecast for 1993/94.

Stocks to be drawn down in 1993/94

Global stocks at the end of 1993/94 were forecast to fall by 24 percent to 123 million tonnes. The contraction was expected to be most dramatic in the United States following the sharp fall in maize production in 1993. Most other major coarse grain exporters were, however, likely to add to carryover stocks due, in part, to enlarged production. South Africa should also be in a position to replenish maize stocks following an increased harvest. Total end of season stocks in developing countries were likely to be smaller, especially in North Africa and in Asia. China, in particular, was expected to reduce coarse grain stocks to cover a production shortfall. The smaller production and inventories forecast for major exporters were expected to exert upward pressure on coarse grain prices in 1993/94.

Production

¹ Clean weight basis.

Utilization

¹ Other uses include: seed, industrial use and waste.

Exports¹

¹ Trade season July/June.
² Excluding trade between member countries,

Imports¹

¹ Trade season July/June.
² Excluding trade between member countries.

Value of exports

¹ Including trade between EC member countries.

Closing stocks¹

¹ At the end of national crop years.
² Government stocks only.

Export unit value

¹ Including trade between EC member countries.

Prices¹

¹ Trade season July/June.
² Canadian feed No.1 Winnipeg Grain Exchange monthly average cash price, basis in store, Thunder Bay, domestic and export price.
³ US No.2 Yellow, Export Price, delivered US Gulf
⁴ US Milo No.2 Yellow, export price, f.o.b. vessel, Houston or Galveston.
⁵ Canadian Feed No.1 Winnipeg Grain Exchange monthly average cash price, basis in store, Thunder Bay, domestic and export price.
⁶ Canadian 2 C.W., Winnipeg Grain Exchange monthly average cash price, basis in store, Thunder Bay, domestic and export price.
⁷ July to December 1993.

Contents - Previous - Next