As 1999 draws to a close, food supply difficulties have emerged in several
countries of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in eastern Africa, due to adverse
weather, intensified civil strife and pest outbreaks. A severe drought at the
beginning of the year substantially reduced secondary season food production
in Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, while delayed and erratic
rainfall later in the year has severely affected main season crops. In Somalia,
the upsurge in civil conflict has compounded the food supply difficulties, leading
to the displacement of large numbers of farm families and the disruption of
food production activities and assistance to war and drought victims. In the
Great Lakes Region, in addition to the dry weather in parts of Rwanda and Burundi
that affected food production, the escalation of violence in rural areas of
Burundi has resulted in large-scale population displacement and the suspension
of all humanitarian assistance, leading to a grim food outlook. In the Democratic
Republic of Congo, the food supply situation remains precarious in most parts
of the country due to the constant displacement of rural people and hence disruption
of farming activities. Floods in Kinshasa in early December have aggravated
the food supply situation. In southern Africa, the bleak food outlook in Angola
persists, with the intensification of the civil conflict. In western Africa,
despite favourable harvest prospects overall, food supply difficulties persist
in Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone due to the lingering effects of civil
strife.
The 1999 aggregate cereal production in the sub-region is forecast to decline significantly compared to last year, due to the recent severe drought. Rains in the sub-region have been characterised by prolonged dry spells and erratic behaviour for most of 1999. A serious drought in the first half of the year sharply reduced the main "Gu" season crops in Somalia and the secondary season "Belg" cereal production in Ethiopia, while late and erratic rainfall later in the year has adversely affected the main season crops in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. The only exceptions were Eritrea and Sudan, which had normal to above-normal rains in most cereal producing areas.
In Somalia, the effect of the drought was compounded by the upsurge in civil strife that led to the displacement of large numbers of farm families and the disruption of farming activities and humanitarian assistance to the affected populations. Nearly 1.6 million people in Mogadishu, Lower and Middle Juba, parts of Gedo and Lower Shabelle are not accessible to humanitarian agencies. The escalation of violence has reduced the distribution of humanitarian relief assistance and a number of starvation-related deaths have been reported.
The 1999 main "Gu" season cereal production is well below the post-war (1993-1998) average due to drought, pests and population displacement. The outlook for the 1999/2000 secondary "Deyr" crops, for harvest in January/February, is also unfavourable due to drought conditions that delayed planting. Assuming an average Deyr harvest, cereal import requirements in 1999/2000 marketing year (August/July) are estimated at 310 000 tonnes, including food aid estimated at 70 000 tonnes. However, with the recent escalation of the civil conflict and the uncertain Deyr season, food aid needs are expected to increase.
In Tanzania, following localized drought in several regions, the food
situation is very difficult for nearly 1.2 million people, mainly in Dodoma,
Mara, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora, Tanga and southern Mwanza, all of which have
now suffered their third consecutive poor harvest. Early prospects for the 1999/2000
secondary "Vuli" crops in the bi-modal rainfall northern areas and
the 2000 main season cereal crops in the unimodal rainfall central and southern
areas, now being planted, are also unfavourable due to late and erratic rainfall.
The decline in production has led to a cereal import requirement of 600 000
tonnes for marketing year 1999/2000 (June/May). However, much of the deficit
is expected to be covered by substitution with non-cereal foodcrops and commercial
imports. WFP has extended its current Emergency Operation in selected regions
until the end of 1999. The outcome of the "Vuli" season will be crucial
for food supply in the northern parts of the country affected by severe food
shortages.
In Kenya, significant cereal output reductions are reported in the Eastern, Central, Western and Nyanza Provinces due to drought, inadequate agricultural input supply and armyworm infestation in some areas. Preliminary official estimates indicate a maize output of about 2.1 million tonnes compared to 2.44 million tonnes last year and 2.5 million tonnes average for the last five years.
The food supply situation is critical in the northern and north-eastern pastoral districts, particularly in Turkana District, where close to 250 000 people are reported to be in need of urgent food assistance. Rainfall during the "long rains" season has been too erratic and insufficient for adequate pasture regeneration and replenishment of water supplies. Severe food shortages are also reported in parts of Central and Eastern provinces. The Government has recently set up emergency co-ordinating committees and provided more than 4 000 tonnes of relief food to vulnerable households in Eastern Province and the pastoral districts. More food assistance is needed for the affected population.
In Uganda, prospects for the 1999 second season food crops, to be harvested from next January, have improved with adequate rains in October, except in some areas of Mbarara, Rakai and Apac districts. However, a prolonged drought experienced earlier in the year in various parts of the country affected the 1999 main season crops, with a near-total crop failure in some areas. About 700 000 people in at least 28 districts were affected and need urgent assistance.
In Eritrea, a good 1999 cereal crop, which is now being harvested, is anticipated, reflecting normal rains in the main growing areas. However, in areas affected by the war with neighbouring Ethiopia, production is expected to be sharply reduced due to population displacement. International assistance is needed for more than 550 000 people affected by the war. Furthermore, substantially reduced export availabilities from Ethiopia are expected to negatively impact upon the food supply situation in the country.
In Ethiopia, it is officially estimated that some 7 million people are in need of food assistance. This includes people affected by the failure of this year's "Belg" season, people in pastoral areas of the east and south affected by two successive crop failures, and nearly 385 000 internally displaced people due to the ongoing war with Eritrea. There is also growing concern over several areas where the prospects for the current "Meher" crops are unfavourable due to adverse weather conditions. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently in the country to assess the 1999 "Meher" production and estimate food assistance requirements in 2000.
In Sudan, a good 1999 main season cereal crop, mainly sorghum and millet, is in prospect, due to improved security, abundant rains and a relatively pest-free season. However, localised crop failures have been reported in some areas, particularly in northern Bahr el Ghazal and Unity states. In anticipation of the good harvest and reflecting high levels of carryover stocks, prices of sorghum remain at very low levels.
The overall food supply situation is favourable, and is expected to improve with the arrival of the new harvest into the markets. However, sorghum producers are concerned about the low prices that have persisted since last year's record sorghum harvest. The mechanised sector has already made a major shift from sorghum to cash crops, mainly sesame. An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently in the country to appraise the 1999 main season cereal production and estimate exportable cereal surplus and food aid requirements in 2000.
The food situation for large numbers of internally displaced people, refugees and other vulnerable groups in the Great Lakes region has deteriorated.
In Burundi, the outlook for the 1999/2000 first season crops, to be harvested from next January, has been adversely affected by dry weather. In the most productive areas, including Kirungo in the north, Mosso in the east and Imbo in the west, planting was late due to the dry weather. This could negatively affect not only the current season crops but also next season crops from February 2000, as harvesting of late-planted crops this season will overlap with planting in the next one.
The tight supply of cereals and pulses, reflecting reduced production in the last B season, is anticipated to deteriorate with another poor harvest. In particular, the food supply situation of the displaced people, following the recent intensification of the civil conflict, gives cause for serious concern. It is estimated that 821 000 people, or more than 13 percent of the total population, are at present in camps set up by the Government. Living conditions in these sites are extremely poor, with no clean water and sanitary facilities. Disease and malnutrition are increasingly reported. Only a limited number of people have access to land, the rest relying on food assistance for their survival. Food aid distributions to the regrouped populations, which had been suspended for five weeks following the deterioration of the security situation and killing of UN international humanitarian staff, have resumed in late November. WFP has made agreements with various non-governmental organizations to distribute food to the regrouped people in Bujumbura Rural, estimated at over 300 000. UN activities continue to be suspended. While every effort needs to be made by the international community to resolve the deep-seated conflict in Burundi, there is an urgent need for the full resumption of humanitarian assistance to the affected population to ameliorate their extreme hardships.
In Rwanda, prospects for the 2000 A season foodcrops, to be harvested from January, are uncertain. Severe dry weather during October, particularly in eastern and southern parts, negatively affected planting which is normally undertaken from mid-September to mid-October. Precipitation in the first dekad of November has been erratic, with abundant rains in eastern parts and dry weather in others. However, these rains may have arrived too late to avoid reductions in the area planted. The dry weather has also severely stressed crops planted in September. A recent locally organized assessment mission, comprising the Ministry of Agriculture, FAO, WFP, USAID/FEWS and EU, found that crops were in very bad condition in eastern and southern zones, particularly the zones of low altitude (Akagera, Bugesera, Mayaga) where production of beans, the most important crop of the season, is anticipated to be sharply reduced. However, the mission also found a significant increase in plantings in the northwestern prefectures where crops were only marginally affected by the dry spell. The outcome of the season will crucially depend on the rains in the coming weeks.
Severe food shortages are being reported in several areas. The most affected population includes households which had a poor harvest last season, have little purchasing power and have not received food assistance. People in need also include those in remote areas where marketing infrastructure is poor, as well as the most vulnerable who have a structural food deficit even in good cropping years. The Government estimates that, overall, about 900 000 people in the prefectures of Gitarama, Butare, Gikongoro, Kibungo and Umutara are in urgent need of emergency food aid and has appealed to the international community for food and for seeds for planting next season. The assessment mission recommended the distribution of 7 000 tonnes of cereal-equivalent per month to the affected population, against 4 700 tonnes actually distributed since the start of the second semester of 1999. In order to respond to the immediate needs in the areas most affected by poor harvests, WFP plans to immediately provide 3 000 tons of food to 200 000 people, and to double the supplementary feeding ration in all nutrition centres. FAO has appealed for funds to assist with seeds, tools and livestock be provided to 100 000 vulnerable households. Further evaluations and the evolution of the situation will determine the need for additional food assistance.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the food supply situation remains very tight in most parts. A recent FAO report indicates that over 10 million people are living in conditions of food insecurity. The most seriously affected include 831 000 displaced people, 844 000 vulnerable urban residents and some 300 000 refugees currently in the DRC. Other affected people include 5.1 million living along the front line. The division of the country in two since the start of the conflict has virtually halted all formal internal trade, while population displacements have seriously disrupted agricultural activities. The deterioration of people's purchasing power, a shortage of basic consumer goods and floods in early December have exacerbated the food problem.
Reflecting generally favourable growing conditions, particularly in August and September, a bumper crop is anticipated in the Sahel for the second consecutive year, reaching a new production record. Rains started generally on time, except in Senegal where they were late in the centre and north. Only limited replantings were necessary in localized areas. Rainfall was generally widespread, regular and abundant during the critical months of July, August and September, even though it caused substantial flooding in The Gambia, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad. The pest situation was mostly calm. The abundant rains also permitted satisfactory regeneration of pastures and replenishment of water reserves.
The 1999 aggregate cereal production of the nine CILSS member countries has been estimated by the FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Missions at a record 10.9 million tonnes, which is 2.3 percent higher than in 1998 and 16 percent above the average of the last five years. Record crops are anticipated in Cape Verde, The Gambia, Mali and Mauritania, while above-average output is anticipated in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Senegal. Output is estimated to be below average in Guinea-Bissau due to civil strife and population displacement in 1998. These estimates are provisional as the surveys were carried out before the end of the harvest and include forecasts for flood recession and off-season crops, especially in Mauritania where rainfed crops represent only about one-third of total production. These estimates may, therefore, be revised in the coming months, but it is unlikely that there will be a significant change in the overall position.
In Sierra Leone, following the peace agreement in early July between the Government and rebels, the security situation has improved, allowing a resumption of emergency and rehabilitation activities. Food distribution is underway following the reopening of main roads from Freetown to Bo and Kenema, and from neighbouring Guinea to Kambia. However, the amount of food is insufficient to meet the needs of the large number of refugees and displaced persons, particularly in the north and east. Recent fighting in the northern towns of Makeni and Lunsar interrupted food deliveries. Current estimates put the number of displaced people at 700 000, whose nutritional status is reported to be precarious.
Crop growing conditions have generally been favourable since the beginning of the season, despite reduced rains in late July and in August. Although the security situation has improved in many rural areas, this has occurred late in the season and, therefore, it may not have a significant positive impact on the 1999 production. Insecurity in several parts of the country at the beginning of the season hampered the delivery of agricultural inputs and disrupted agricultural activities. Therefore, output is expected to remain close to last year's level despite the favourable weather conditions. It should be noted, however, that even with rapid and successful implementation of the peace agreement, the country will continue to rely heavily on food assistance for several years. An FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission is currently in the country to review harvest prospects.
In Liberia, the overall food situation has improved significantly, with rice production in 1998 up to 70 percent of pre-war levels, compared to 25 percent in 1995, and cassava production almost at pre-war levels compared to 50 percent in 1995. Thus, further improvements are expected in 1999. Growing conditions have been favourable so far and, with the exception of Lofa County in the north, relative peace prevails in the rest of the country, exerting a positive influence on farming activities. The cultivated area should be substantially higher than in 1998, with crop yields expected to be well above the pre-war levels. Distribution of seeds and tools by aid agencies has significantly contributed to the increase in productivity.
Food supplies on the urban markets are relatively stable and, in general, food prices are lower than in 1998. Resettlement and rehabilitation activities have encouraged refugees and the internally displaced people to return to their homes. However, a recent upsurge in insecurity in the north disrupted humanitarian programmes for Liberian returnees and Sierra Leonean refugees, whose nutritional and health situation is reported to have deteriorated. About 90 000 refugees from Sierra Leone remain in Liberia. On the basis of an estimated population of about 2.8 million in 1999 projected to 2000, FAO estimates that Liberia will need to import 155 000 tonnes of cereals to meet consumption requirements in the year 2000. Commercial imports are anticipated at 100 000 tonnes of rice and 5 000 tonnes of wheat. The remaining 50 000 tonnes will need to be covered by food aid.
In Guinea-Bissau, the overall food supply situation has improved following the end of the conflict that broke out in 1998. However, some population groups are still facing food difficulties, notably in urban areas. Displaced persons and returnees are receiving food assistance.
Abundant and well-distributed rains in September and October favoured crop development, and cumulative rainfall is above normal. A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission from 11 to 15 October estimated the 1999 cereal production at 138 666 tonnes, which is 6 percent above last year's but 6 percent below the 1997/98 pre-crisis level. Production of rice has decreased due to flooding and pest attacks in the low-lying areas and swamps. In contrast, there has been an increase in production of coarse grains, mainly due to an increase in sown area and sufficient soil moisture.
In Angola, some improvement in the security situation has been reported
in November. This follows a massive military offensive from late September,
in which the Government regained control of central highland cities of Andulo
and Bailundo, former strongholds of the UNITA rebels. Relief distributions have
resumed to thousands of people in parts of the provinces of Bie, Huila and Huambo,
where cases of severe malnutrition had been reported and food aid had been suspended
for several months. However, the number of landmine accidents is reported on
the increase, mainly in the eastern province of Moxico, and full access to the
previously besieged cities is still not possible.
Planting of the 1999/2000 crops is underway. Seeds are being distributed to
displaced people who have access to land. The overall food production prospects
are uncertain. The Government's military advances in the central parts in October
coincided with the beginning of the sowing period, and shifted the war front
to other areas, mainly Kuito, Lunda, Moxico, Zaire and Uige provinces, causing
renewed population displacements. The number of Angolans fleeing the war to
neighbouring Zambia increased over the past month, with more than 1 500 refugees
crossing the border, against 100 people in the previous month.
While the food and nutritional situation of the displaced rural people is extremely
serious, the resident populations of the isolated cities in the interior are
suffering from sharp increases in food prices. In the capital city, Luanda,
rampant inflation and rapid depreciation of the national currency have seriously
eroded access to food for the majority of the population. Emergency food assistance
is being provided by WFP to 1.1 million people.
Elsewhere in southern Africa, food supply is stable, reflecting good 1999 cereal harvests in some countries (Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar), a recovery to normal levels in others (Lesotho, Swaziland, Zambia) and an adequate commercial import capacity for some (Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe), which enables them to cover their needs.
Sub-Saharan Africa's cereal import requirement, including food aid, in 1999/2000 is expected to increase, reflecting reduced harvests in eastern Africa. For the 24 countries which have already entered the 1999/2000 marketing year, GIEWS preliminary estimates of 1999 production and 1999/2000 import and food aid requirements are summarized in Table 1. The exact amount of the increase in import and food aid requirements will depend on the outcome of the current season in the remaining 24 countries.
Millions of people in several parts of sub-Saharan Africa face persistent food supply difficulties as a result of adverse weather and/or civil strife, recent or current. The serious food crisis in Somalia gives cause for serious concern. Nearly 1.6 million people in southern Somalia are not accessible to humanitarian agencies due to insecurity. Food supply difficulties have also intensified in Burundi due to heightened insecurity, coupled with adverse weather. In Angola, the recent escalation of fighting led to renewed displacement of rural people, who face acute nutritional and health problems. In eastern Africa, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania are experiencing serious food shortages, with large numbers of people in need of urgent food assistance, mainly due to drought-induced crop failures. In southern Sudan, despite the generally favourable crop growing conditions, nearly 2 million people affected by insecurity and frequent displacement, need food assistance. In western Africa, despite the very favourable food outlook overall, food supply difficulties persist in Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone, due to the lingering effects of civil strife.
Against this background, the attention of the international community is drawn to the following areas requiring priority action:
