3. Conclusions and Recommendations Relative to LGH Environment

3.1 Technology/Mitigating Activity

See Section IV-3.1 and Section II-3.1.

3.2 Education and Extension

See Section V-3.2.

3.4 Conclusions and Recommendations about Financial Stimulation

3.4.1 Range Development: An Engine for Economic Development?

The contribution of ruminant livestock to gross domestic product increases only with rapid and sustained economic development (De Boer 1982). The selection of range resources for development stimulation and extension/education efforts can be based to some extent on direct and indirect impact on output (gross national product) and on income. The impact can be measured by output income and employment multipliers. The higher the multiplier, the more benefit for economic development.

Multipliers are derived from input-output tables for a national economy, and many have been prepared for developing countries. A study carried out in the early 1970s (Simpson and Adams 1975, Adams and Simpson 1977) reported that exports of live cows in South America provided about $3.30 of direct, indirect, and induced output (GNP) change for each $1.00 of change in output. As might be expected, more processing was shown to result in a higher multiplier. For example, each $1.00 of output from canned beef exports was calculated to provide $4.41 in direct and indirect benefit to the economy.

The multipliers for live-animal exports are about the same as for other sectors of the economy. The conclusion is that investment in livestock should not hinge on output multipliers, as a similar case can be made for other sectors of the economy. A more important question is the extent to which lack of investment in the livestock industry is a bottleneck to economic development and the extent to which foreign loans result in greater economic development.

The culture of poverty concept described previously is directly relevant to visions about the future of range-based ruminant livestock production. There are low levels of animal supplies and inefficiency in production because there is low return on resources devoted to animal production. In developing countries those inefficiencies are caused by low levels of purchasing power. Animals are not engines for development although the multipliers are equal to those of other sectors of the economy. As De Boer (1982) points out, "In retrospect, the high expectations that livestock would contribute substantially to agricultural sector goals have not, by and large, been met."

Calculation of the percentage contribution by the livestock industry to gross or net national product is one way to determine the relative importance of a country's livestock industry. However, in general, the number is only a reflection of the magnitude of the industry and is not a development indicator. On the contrary, a larger proportion mainly means that a country is more reliant on agriculture than on manufacturing. Part of the development problem is to actually reduce the proportion of contribution by livestock over time.

One problem is that the more subsistence the production level (as exemplified by range-oriented systems in developing countries), the lower the multiplier effect. As a case in point, there is almost no indirect impact on an economy from artisanal activities, such as a pastoralist herding sheep, shearing the flock to produce wool, which is then woven into a sweater and sold on the side of a road. By definition, subsistence-level, range-oriented producers sell little of their production. This is why they are at a subsistence level. But as a market develops due to urbanization, the remaining producers face an ever-expanding market. In other words, one important criterion to economic development is migration to cities, exactly the opposite approach generally formulated by planners who typically argue that producers should expand production and be more productive for the good of the country. The key is to integrate the remaining producers in the market system.

As producers are increasingly tied to a market system, they expand production because they have the wherewithal to purchase inputs and an incentive to utilize the inputs efficiently. At this point, an extension service and companies selling inputs can begin to make headway in delivery of their message. The concept that productivity can basically be raised only when farmers enter the market system can be called the no-cash-in, no-cash-out principle.

3.4.2 The No-Cash-In, No-Cash-Out Principle

An important principle in livestock analysis work, especially in LDCs, is that producers will not likely make an investment or use purchased inputs unless additional cash can be generated to recover that expense. The no-cash-in, no-cash-out principle is one reason why many smallholders seem to be slow in their adoption patterns. Closer analysis reveals that the difficulty is often not that smallholders, particularly those at or near the subsistence level, do not know about advanced production techniques or are not convinced of them, but rather they have some type of cash-flow problem or simply do not have a way to earn cash. Examples are slow adoption of efficient management practices and little use of purchased animal-health inputs.

The number of management strategies available to range-oriented livestock owners, as contrasted to intensive-system producers, is extremely limited because range-oriented producers, especially near the subsistence level, are less likely to purchase production inputs as well as make (relatively) large investments in fixed facilities, equipment, and breeding stock. The net result is that in terms of efficiency and productivity, most livestock owners at or near the subsistence level are already operating at a fairly high level of productivity, given the constraints under which they operate.

Producers on range systems need to become part of a market economy if they are to make livestock-related investments either with their own capital or with borrowed capital. In some cases, such as wool from sheep, the return will be derived directly from the animals themselves. In other cases, the return will be indirect, such as milk from cows. Thus, the need for a more holistic approach to the entire system, as advocated in the farming system research/extension (FSR/E) methodology, needs to be pursued (see later discussion).

The no-cash-in, no-cash-out principle is a serious constraint to livestock industry improvement, especially where a substantial proportion of the producers operate at or near a subsistence level. However, many opportunities do exist to help these producers improve their productivity. Government can encourage commercial projects, such as the organization of villages to specialize in commodities that will be sold rather than consumed locally. Subsidized inputs, facilities, and equipment can be made available. The critical point is to carry out integrated economic and technical analyses with tests being made on farms.

An important aspect is that the no-cash-in, no-cash-out principle holds at the national as well as individual producer level. Failure to recognize the principle has led to many national-level livestock projects that have simply added to a country's external debt problem. For instance, range-management projects can be very expensive in terms of foreign-exchange requirements yet yield little additional offtake for export and generation of foreign earnings. Rather, the benefits are often more welfare related. Thus, ironically, even though any particular project itself may be very successful in terms of its own scope of work, that project may make virtually no contribution, either directly or indirectly, to generating foreign-exchange earnings to repay the international loan.

3.4.3 International Debt and Economic Adjustment Programs

The debt crisis of the 1980s and 1990s in many countries calls for livestock strategies to be evaluated in light of macroeconomic adjustment and stabilization programs. The point is that in countries with international balance of payment problems, and even in developing economies which have relatively little problems at present, balance of payments is not only a top priority item in planning but also a constraint in many instances. A fundamental reason for a country to borrow money is to assist in the national-level economic development process. The money is borrowed because there is expectation that the return in economic output will be greater than the principal plus interest.

One important fact that apparently is not taken into account by borrowing countries, or is forgotten, and often not stressed by potential lenders is that international loans are repaid in foreign currency, usually U.S. dollars. That means the loan must in some way contribute to foreign-exchange generation. A loan can contribute to foreign exchange generation both directly and indirectly. On the plus side, in the case of range systems, an import substitution loan can assist a country in developing an activity that will reduce imports. A further determinant is the level of general economic development and associated level of institutional development. Finally, strategies, and especially those related to extension and education efforts, depend on goals, which in turn are based on visions of what society should be like.

3.4.4 Land Tenure/Institiutional Adjustments

See Section II-3.4

3.6 Development Projects/Programs

See II-3.5.

3.6.1 Other Policies and Regulations

Issues of livestock-wildlife interactions, habitat loss, environmental monitoring, and concepts of equilibrium and ecological capacity can be found in Section II-3.7.1.

3.7. Research Efforts Needed

3.7.1 Information Technology and Infrastructures

Establishing permanent national systems of land monitoring and information infrastructures is a major research priority for livestock systems around the world (Stuth 1996). Information technology linked to biological and social research programs offers new mechanisms to monitor existing systems, analyze weaknesses in the system, explore alternative solutions, and communicate solutions to key decision makers. Simplifing complexity via information systems offers society a new dimension to understanding its resources and the environmental impact of a decision process, thereby offering perspectives on research not currently explored to date. The primary emphasis should be placed on the following areas:

a) Information infrastructures should be developed which organize information to inform policymakers and help identify problem areas to establish priority environmental problem areas (Nelson 1992, Stuth and Smith 1993).

b) These systems must be capable of multiple-scale analysis, matching appropriate data resolution to level of planning. These systems must also deal with temporal issues of long-term policy analysis to near real-time assessment of current events relative to forecasted events impacting decision making. They must also include the integration of biological and social databases (soils, vegetation, elevation, weather, demographics, rural health, trade/markets, agricultural commodities, etc.) with spatial images and spatially referenced data (Doppler radar NEXRAD weather data, historical weather, soils) and major decision support systems and resource planning models.

c) Greater awareness must be created among decision makers and the general public through improved monitoring and public information systems.

Development of information infrastructures provides a direct link between research and the decision maker (policymaker, landholder, public lands manager, general public). This linkage has been coined as decision-driven research (Stuth et al. 1993a). Information needs of decision makers relative to state of knowledge require analysis of system functions (social and biological) and level of knowledge resolution required to make a decision. Knowledge deficiencies identified then feed a mechanism for research prioritization with conduct of research at the appropriate scale, resolution, and level of resources to result in a successful outcome.

3.7.2 Ecological Processes at the Global and Landscape Level

The Sustainable Biosphere Initiative (1991) outlined a series of research priorities based on the potential to contribute to fundamental ecological knowledge and the potential to respond to major human concerns about sustainability of the biosphere. Their recommendations are listed below.

a. Greater attention should be devoted to examining the ways that ecological complexity controls global processes.

b. New research efforts should address both the importance of biological diversity in controlling ecological processes and the role that ecological processes play in shaping patterns of diversity at different scales of time and scale.

c. A major new integrated program of research on the sustainability of ecological systems should be established. This program would focus on understanding the underlying ecological processes in order to prescribe restoration and management strategies that would enhance the sustainability of the earth's ecological system.

a. What are the patterns of diversity in nature, and what are their critical ecological and evolutionary determinants?

b. How do morphological, physiological, and behavioral traits of organisms interact?

c. How plastic are the morphology, physiology, and behavior of organisms in the face of environmental stresses? What are organisms' proximal limitations?

d. What are the determinants and consequences of dispersal and dormancy?

e. What factors explain the life history adaptations of organisms? What are the population-level consequences of these adaptations?

f. What factors control the sizes of populations? How are changes in populations size related to processes mediated at that level of the individual?

g. How does the internal structure of a population affect its response to various stresses?

h. How does fragmentation of the landscape affect the spread and persistence of populations?

i. What factors govern the assembly of communities and ecosystems and the ways those systems respond to various stresses? What patterns emerge from cross-system comparisons.

j. What are the feedbacks between the biotic and abiotic portions of ecosystems and landscapes? How do climatic, anthropogenic, and biotic processes regulate bio-geochemical processes?

k. How do patterns and processes at one spatial or temporal scale affect those at other scales?

l. What are the consequences of environmental variability, including natural and anthropogenic disturbance, for individuals, populations, or communities.

3.7.3 Watershed Processes

Too many small-scale projects have focused on effects of livestock production systems on hydrologic process and biochemical cycling. Adequate funds must be established to allow instrumented watersheds to be established at sufficient size to reflect landscape-level processes. It is essential that these projects be adequately funded to establish at least three years of baseline information on hydrologic and nutrient cycling processes followed by implementation of desired landscape-level treatments or management practices. Concerted efforts are needed to establish spatially dynamic models to characterize and predict these processes. Methodologies are needed to address the issue of how to sample landscapes to adequately depict processes to determine if effects are real or highly localized--e.g., redistribution of nutrients versus loss of nutrients from a system.

3.7.4 Thresholds and On-Site Monitoring Techniques

The concept of landscape erosion cells and ecosystem leakiness requires identification of on-site monitoring systems which allow the land manager to access the impact of management practices on the long-term stability of the ecosystem being grazed. Research must identify critical threshold conditions and devise methods to measure effects (see Section 3.7.1 on information technology and infrastructures). Critical thresholds must be identified in terms of vegetation change, soil surface conditions, and physical landscape processes at the appropriate scale.

Most land degradation from overgrazing results from limited understanding of current conditions relative to expected future conditions affecting plant growth. Improved self-monitoring systems and analytical tools must be devised to assist livestock managers to recognize the ecological consequences of their decisions. Policymakers and action-agency personnel must devise monitoring systems and information systems to improve public awareness of consequences of emerging environmental conditions and devise appropriate policy to avert long-term damage to the environment. Training programs which focus on total resource management help the manager recognize the strong linkage between ecological processes and the financial stability of the operation should be developed. Of particular concern for monitoring systems is determination of available forage. Research needs to focus on identifying what forage is perceived as available to the grazing animal. This approach involves establishment of thresholds of forage availability given current standing crop, expected weather events, and livestock demand.

3.7.5 Landscape Restoration and Derived Pastures

Past ecological forces over a wide array of landscapes have altered hydrologic and ecological processes to the point where humans must intercede to reverse degradation processes. Researchers need to devise low-cost, socially integratable restoration technologies which alter mesoscale and landscape-level processes that allow grazed ecosystems to stabilize and meet increasing human demands.

Integrated brush management strategies (IBMS) need to be devised which allow landholders to create landscapes which meet multiple goals (livestock, wildlife, water, etc). IBMS involves sequencing control strategies which are bioeconomically sound, meeting stated goals of management. Systems of cost effective, environmentally sound woody plant control in derived pastures is a critical need.

Genetic sources of plant materials need to be identified that can be sustained over indefinite planning horizons with special emphasis on low nutrient conditions of the tropical lowlands and the dry tropics. Fodder tree species capable of survival of environmental extremes and integration of important herbage and crops require special attention. Development of integrated agro-silvo-pastoral systems need to be devised which are sustainable within the sociocultural context applied. In derived pastures, several research needs should focus on the:

a. influence of soil physical constraints on pasture conditions, particularly topsoil compaction and surface runoff and erosion;

b. nature of soil phosphorus supply and its relationship to pasture productivity;

c. nutrient supplies in the pasture biomass and their relationship to soil nutrients;

d. changes in pasture status and management over time;

3.7.6 Identifying Functional Groups of Plants

A major limitation to modeling plant growth and successional processes is knowledge of the critical biological information on the large worldwide population of plant species (Stuth 1996). A concerted effort must be made to devise plant classification systems that allow formation of functional groups of plants which can be parameterized by a consortium of scientists relative to suitable responses required for various models depicting plant responses to disturbances at various scales and time steps.

3.7.7 Livestock Nutrition

Diet quality prediction equations for near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) technology for monitoring nutritional state of free-ranging animals need to be developed for worldwide ecoregions. Recent advances in NIRS technology has made it possible to predict diet quality of free-ranging animals via fecal scans (Stuth et al. 1993a). Emphasis should be placed on development of service labs coupled with irradiation facilities to allow rapid analysis of fecal samples across political boundaries. This technology has been successfully implemented in the U.S. and is emerging in Australia, Argentina, Mexico, Niger, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. Once developed, NIRS prediction equations can be used as monitoring systems for livestock production systems. Predictions of nutritional states of livestock allow fine-tuning of production systems and development of specialized nutrient supplements to meet local needs and goals. Computerized decision support systems such as the NUTBAL Nutritional Balance Analyzer (Stuth et al. 1993a) need to be develop in conjunction with NIRS technology to provide the mechanism to transfer monitoring technology.

A greater understanding of nutrient behavior in the gastrointestinal tract of ruminants must be developed. Special focus should be placed on relationships of energy and protein fractions and associated amino acids as they impact dry nutrient intake of grazing animals. Nutrient supplements and forage-based feeding systems need to be developed based on greater understanding of nutrient-fraction dynamics in various ecoregions. Evidence is mounting that degree of degradability of protein of feedstuff is influenced by the characteristics of associated feeds, particularly grazed forages. Apparently, when contrasted to fresh forage, hays of the same forage do not behave the same in the gastrointestinal tract. Improved analytical techniques need to be devised along with improved nutrition models. Metabolic modifiers need to be developed to assist in improved nutrient conversion and help offset excess methane production in ruminants.

3.7.8 Adapted Breeds and Biotechnology

Greater focus needs to be placed on identifying functional characteristics of breeds of stock that allow improved matching of livestock with their environment. Mechanisms of adaptation need to be identified and transgenic technology explored to impart greater adaptation of breeds with desirable carcass characteristics.

3.7.9 Livestock Production Systems

Improved mixed-species livestock production systems need to be devised that allow a more balanced impact on grazed ecosystems and greater diversity of potential cash sources to landholders. Greater emphasis needs to be placed on calf management systems. Continued improvement in animal health management systems needs to maintain disease resistance as adaptation of disease organisms challenges our current health technologies.

3.7.10 Wildlife Management Systems

Improved wildlife management systems need to be devised which allow for development of habitats of sufficient diversity and structure to sustain wildlife populations to maintain biodiversity and which offer alternative enterprises to landholders. Potential wild animal farming systems need to be investigated. Greater attention to landholder vestment in wildlife needs to be pursued where the person impacting the land garners benefits to improved wildlife habitat management.