In late 1995 the FAO Forestry Department initiated the Global Fibre Supply Study (GFSS). The general objective of the study is to contribute reliable data, information, forecasts and analysis of industrial fibre sources, and thus help respond to questions raised by the forestry community and the public such as: Where is the raw material going to come from to meet forest products needs and how much productive forest is needed to supply the expected future fibre demand sustainably?
For the purposes of the GFSS, "fibre" is defined as fibrous wood and non-wood raw material used in primary industries producing sawntimber, wood-based panels, pulp and paper products. The majority of this fibre exists in standing form in primary and secondary forest (referred to hereafter as "forest undisturbed by humans" and "forest disturbed by humans") and forest plantations. Other significant sources of fibre are recovered products (primarily paper) and non-wood fibres (e.g. straw, bamboo and bagasse).
The GFSS includes a compilation of the latest available inventory data; an analysis of these data on a national, regional and global basis to determine the current state of industrial fibre supply; and a model enabling the manipulation of critical variables to forecast future scenarios. The potential value of the GFSS is high: it can help to sensitize industry, governments and non-governmental organizations to the critical policy issues that surround industrial raw material sources and sustainable uses of forest resources, thereby contributing to sustainable forest management overall.
The preliminary report of the GFSS (and its forecasting model) was presented to the FAO Advisory Committee on Paper and Wood Products in April 1998. The report will be published and widely distributed in the first half of 1998 both in hard copy and on CD-ROM (the CD version will also contain the database and model, enabling individuals to model futures on a country basis). The report and model will also be available worldwide through the FAO Forestry web site.
This number of Unasylva focuses on the GFSS and on the issues it has raised and attempted to resolve. The majority of the articles are written by direct participants in the GFSS process. Future issues of the journal will include articles recounting external reactions to the GFSS - and input from readers is encouraged.
The issue opens by taking a step back to set the question of future fibre supply in context. The lead article, by P.N. Duinker, S. Nilsson and M.E. Chipeta, asks the question: "What would be the impact of sustainable forest management on future supplies of industrial fibre?". Intuitively, the response seems to be that sustainable practices would lead to reduced fibre supplies at any given moment but to a greater supply over time (in that unsustainable practices would reduce or even eradicate future potential). However, this analysis is somewhat simplistic, since the dominant factor in sustainable forest management is more likely to be financial than technological. Sustainable forest management will require increased overall forest area, intensified timber production in the areas that are dedicated to fibre production and increased demarcation of fully protected areas. If the users of global fibre were willing to pay significantly more for their supplies, whether they be fuelwood, raw materials for industry or finished products, sustainable forest management could be implemented and future fibre supplies could be maintained and even increased. The lead article also considers the factors that would need to be incorporated into the development and implementation of future fibre supply analyses to make them more relevant to sustainable forest management.
The second article, by GFSS manager G. Bull, describes the steps undertaken in the GFSS process including establishment of key definitions and development of a database and modelling structure. It also provides examples of how the model can be used to derive possible future scenarios. The article highlights two important aspects. The first relates to the question of data collection and analysis. The GFSS provides an appropriate and versatile framework for data collection and presentation that will allow additional factors to be incorporated in the future. The GFSS process also highlights the lack of essential data; it offers a mechanism through which countries can identify needs for data and also requirements for training in data collection and analysis. The second key aspect is the GFSS forecasting model. This user-friendly model and the full database are being made available on CD-ROM and on the Internet, thereby allowing users to modify the critical variables to create their own scenarios. Moreover, the Internet-based version allows users to review the modelling approach and the data interactively as well as to make suggestions for improvement. The article also recognizes that the GFSS approach is only a small step towards a full response to fibre supply analysis needs, and it draws conclusions about approaches that need to be followed in the future.
The remainder of the articles in this issue examine in more depth a number of the key sources or consumers of global fibre resources, thus helping to develop this complex issue further and to make the connection with sustainable forest management overall. This connection is of the utmost importance, since the GFSS process will have lasting value only if it leads to appropriate policy decisions and associated action. Without this link, it would remain just another theoretical exercise.
