Total cereal food aid shipments in 1995/96 (July/June) under programme,
project and emergency food aid reached 7.2 million tons, some 2 million tons,
or 23 percent, below shipments in the previous year and as much as 6 million
tons, or 45 percent, below the annual average food aid shipments during the
past five years (Table A.14). At this level, food aid shipments in 1995/96
were only 2 million tons above the reduced minimum commitments of just over
5 million tons agreed under the 1995 Food Aid Convention (FAC). It is important
to note that while the revised food aid commitments are almost 50 percent
below the original target of at least 10 million tons agreed at the World
Food Conference in 1974, in most years in the past, actual food aid shipments
exceeded the minimum commitments by much larger margins than was the case
in 1995/96. The reduced food aid availabilities during 1995/96 also coincided
with a sharp increase in international prices of cereals and a near-absence
of exports on concessional terms. This development affected the Low-Income
Food-Deficit countries (LIFDCs) in particular. Despite lower imports needs,
the combination of higher cereal export prices and reduced food aid shipments
is estimated to have resulted in an increase in the cereal import bill of
the LIFDCs by over U.S.$ 4 billion in 1995/96 or 35 percent from the previous
year.
Aggregate cereal shipments as food aid to the developing countries are estimated
to have fallen to 5.7 million tons in 1995/96, from 7.1 million tons in the
previous year. At this level, food aid shipments were 26 percent below the
previous 5 year's average and also the lowest on record, even slightly below
the volume shipped during the world food crisis in the early 1970's. Nearly
all of the decline occurred among the LIFDCs where shipments in 1995/96 are
estimated at only 5.7 million tons, 2 million tons below 1994/95 levels.
The bulk of the decline among the LIFDCs occurred in countries in the sub
-Saharan Africa, where shipments dropped by almost one-third to 2.3 million
tons. While food aid shipments to nearly all countries in Africa fell in
1995/96, the decline was most pronounced in Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi,
Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal and Sudan. Total shipments into Latin America
and the Caribbean also fell sharply in 1995/96, to 496 000 tons against 1.1
million tons in 1994/95. The bulk of this decline occurred in Bolivia, Guatemala
and Peru though in general most other countries in this region also received
less food aid than in the previous year. By contrast, shipments to Asia rose
slightly to an estimated 2.8 million tons, close to volumes shipped annually
since the early 1990s. This was mainly due to larger shipments to the Democratic
Peoples' Republic of Korea, which more than offset the decline in food aid
to several countries, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Total
food aid shipments to the developed countries in eastern Europe and the CIS
in 1995/96 were estimated at 1.4 million tons, some 800 000 tons, or 35 percent,
smaller than in the previous year and 50 percent, below the average for the
past 5 years.
In addition, global food aid shipments in terms of non-cereals food commodities
fell in 1995 (January-December) for the second consecutive year, by 500 000
tons, or 30 percent, to slightly above 1 million tons. Lower shipments of
pulses and vegetable oils accounted for most of this decline. The bulk of
the decline occurred again mostly to Africa and countries of Eastern Europe
and the CIS.
Estimates of possible food aid shipments for 1996/97 are rendered
difficult as information on food aid budget allocations provided to FAO by
individual donor countries to-date remain incomplete. However, total cereal
food aid shipments may reach 7.5 million tons in 1996/97 (July/June), some
300 000 tons more than the reduced 1995/96 level and over 2 million tons
above the minimum commitments agreed under the 1995 FAC. The anticipated
increase in cereal food aid shipments in 1996/97 is expected to be mainly
on account ofslightly larger shipments from the EC and the United States
mostly to the LIFDCs in Africa and Asia.
Contributions to the World Food Programme (WFP) administrated International
Emergency Food reserve (IEFR) in 1995 reached around 908 000 tons of cereals
and 238 000 tons of non-cereals. Pledges to the 1996 IEFR have reached 626
000 tons for cereals and 159 000 tons for non-cereals as of October 1996
(table A.13). In addition, contributions to the 1995 Protracted Refugee
Operations (PROs), also directed by the WFP amounted to 535 000 cereals and
58 000 tons of other food commodities, while some 396 000 tons for cereals
and 84 000 for non-cereals have been pledged to-date under the 1996 PROs.
Pledges to the regular resources of WFP, which account for 98 percent of
total food aid deliveries through multilateral channels, amounted to U.S.$
1 007 million for the previous 1993-94 biennium, or around 67 percent of
the target of U.S.$ 1.5 billion. Of this total, some U.S.$ 651 million was
in the form of commodities and U.S.$ 350 million in cash. For the 1995-96
biennium, total contributions as of October 1996 had reached U.S.$ 806 million,
representing 53 percent of the U.S.$ 1.5 billion target. Of the total amount
pledged, an estimated U.S.$ 537 million were in the form of commodities and
U.S.$ 269 million in cash.
FOOD AID SHIPMENTS - CEREALS (July/June)
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|
1992/93 | 1993/94 | 1994/95 | 1995/96 |
1996/97 f'cast |
|
|
|
( . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . thousand tons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) | |||||
| WORLD | 15 088 | 12 966 | 9 346 | 7 163 | 7 500 | |
| LIFDC | 10 172 | 8 012 | 7 866 | 5 660 | 5 900 | |
| Africa | 6 625 | 3 709 | 3 541 | 2 500 |
|
|
| Sub-Saharan | 5 794 | 3 283 | 3 296 | 2 276 |
|
|
| Others | 831 | 426 | 245 | 224 |
|
|
| Asia | 2 428 | 2 665 | 2 470 | 2 753 |
|
|
| East Asia and SE Asia | 340 | 297 | 307 | 875 |
|
|
| South Asia | 1 488 | 1 536 | 1 601 | 1 288 |
|
|
| Others | 600 | 832 | 562 | 591 |
|
|
| Europe and the CIS | 4 337 | 5 010 | 2 189 | 1 414 |
|
|
| Latin America and the |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Caribbean | 1 697 | 1 583 | 1 145 | 496 |
|
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Update on the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Crisis
Since the beginning of the BSE crisis last March, when the Government of
the United Kingdom announced that a possible link existed between the human
Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and BSE, conclusions from experimental research
have raised additional concern about the possibility that sheep could also
be infected with BSE. A ten percent maternal transmission of BSE to calves
born within six months from their mother suffering from BSE has also been
evidenced.
In response to the crisis, the United Kingdom, where the vast majority of
BSE cases have been reported, has launched various measures to eradicate
the disease, including the slaughtering, over the next five to seven years,
of 4.5 to 6.3 million cattle aged more than 30 months and at the end of their
productive lives, together with the selective cull of 85,000 to 147,000 animals
most at risk of having been exposed to BSE. The carcass of these animals
is to be destroyed. However, because a recent study concluded that BSE is
likely to die out on its own by 2001, the Government of the United Kingdom
is currently reconsidering its earlier decision to implement the selective
culling scheme and is now aiming at the elimination of a much lower number
of cattle at risk. At the same time, Switzerland, the second most affected
country by BSE, announced a plan, on 16th September, to eradicate the disease
through the slaughtering of some 230,000 cattle either born before 1990 or
offsprings of BSE-infected cows.
Domestic demand for beef in the EC dropped strongly in the aftermath of the
crisis, triggering a sharp reduction in producer prices for cattle and a
concomitant increase in the prices of other meat types, as consumers shifted
to alternative sources of proteins. However, a recovery in domestic demand,
(associated with the introduction of beef quality and origin labelling in
various member states), increased intervention purchases and the resumption
of trade with third countries have contributed to a lifting of EC cattle
prices since mid-August. Prices for pig meat, have begun to stabilize since
July, remaining, nonetheless, much above the pre-crisis levels. Sheep meat
prices came under strong upward pressure when the BSE crisis broke; while
this effect began to subside subsequently, prices rose strongly again in
August as demand for breeding animals intensified, possibly denoting an on-going
shift of farmers from cattle to sheep raising. EC poultry prices have been
rather stable since the beginning of the crisis.
The EC Commission has earmarked some ECU 850 million to give immediate income
support to cattle farmers in member states. In addition, indirect support
to the market has been provided through a reactivation of procurement purchases.
From April to August, about 270,000 tons of beef had already been purchased
by the Commission.
A reduction in EC beef demand of some 850,000 tons, or 11 percent of consumption
in 1995, is anticipated in 1996 as a consequence of the crisis. To balance
the market, the Commission has proposed a set of measures. These include
a cut in the number of cattle eligible for premiums, the lifting of the beef
intervention purchase ceiling volume, a widening of intervention purchases
to calves of up to 20 days of age and to light weight cattle and measures
to promote extensive beef production. On the demand side, it has also made
the proposal for an EC-wide voluntary labelling scheme for beef, providing
basic information to consumers about the origin and rearing methods of the
cattle used for its production.
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