Food Outlook No.3 - July 2002 p.2

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BASIC FACTS OF THE WORLD CEREAL SITUATION

1998/1999 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 forecast Change 2002/03 over 2001/2002
WORLD PRODUCTION 1/ (. . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ) (percentage)
Wheat 598 592 585 581 578 -0.6
Coarse grains 915 889 876 907 903 -0.3
Rice, milled 389 409 400 397 397 -0.1
         (paddy) (581) (611) (599) (593) (593) -0.1
All cereals (incl. milled rice) 1 903 1 890 1 862 1 885 1 878 -0.4
Developing countries 1 043 1 041 1 007 1 010 1 011 0.1
Developed countries 859 849 855 875 867 -0.9
WORLD IMPORTS 2/            
Wheat 100 110 101 105 105 -0.8
Coarse grains 96 106 109 106 107 0.6
Rice (milled) 25 23 24 25 24 -2.9
All cereals 221 239 233 236 235 -0.4
Developing countries 162 174 170 171 178 3.9
Developed countries 59 65 63 65 57 -11.7
FOOD AID IN CEREALS 3/ 11.3 11.2 9.7 10.0        
WORLD UTILIZATION            
Wheat 591 594 598 609 613 0.8
Coarse grains 900 903 909 921 925 0.5
Rice (milled) 388 400 405 409 413 1.1
All cereals 1 879 1 897 1 911 1 938 1 951 0.7
Developing countries 1 132 1 155 1 162 1 171 1 184 1.1
Developed countries 746 742 749 767 767 0.0
Per Caput Food Use (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . kg/year  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Developing countries 165 166 166 166 166 0.2
Developed countries 133 133 134 134 134 0.0
WORLD STOCKS 4/ (. . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Wheat 253 250 237 210 174 -17.1
Coarse grains 266 255 226 210 189 -10.2
Rice (milled) 157 168 164 150 135 -10.1
All cereals 677 672 627 570 498 -12.7
Developing countries 506 511 465 409 352 -14.0
Developed countries 171 161 162 161 146 -9.4
EXPORT PRICES 5/ (. . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . US$/tonne  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Rice (Thai, 100%, 2nd grade) 1/ 315 253 207 178 200 6/ 11.7 7/
Wheat (U.S. No.2 HRW) 120 112 128 127     -1.2
Maize (U.S. No.2 Yellow) 95 91 86 90   4.8
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES 5/            
From U.S. Gulf to Egypt 9.3 13.7 15.0 15.0   0.0
LOW-INCOME FOOD-DEFICIT COUNTRIES 8/ (. . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . million tonnes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
Roots & tubers production 1/ 423 435 447 436 439 0.7
Cereal production (milled rice) 1/ 811 814 774 772 777 0.7
Per caput production (kg.) 9/ 219 217 204 201 200 -0.5
Cereal imports 2/ 73.8 75.5 73.2 74.1 77.3 4.3
of which: Food aid 8.5 7.6 8.3 8.5    
Proportion of cereal import (. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percentage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . )  
covered by food aid 11.5 10.1 11.3 11.5    
             
Source: FAO Note: Totals and percentages computed from unrounded data. 1/ Data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. 2/ July/June except for rice for which the data refer to the calendar year of the second year shown. 3/ July/June shipments. 4/ Stock data are based on aggregate of national carryover levels at the end of national crop years. 5/ July/June. 6/ Average of quotations for January-June 2002. 7/ Change from corresponding period of previous year for which figures are not shown. 8/ Food deficit countries with per caput income below the level used by the World Bank to determine eligibility for IDA assistance (i.e. US$ 1 445 in 2000). 9/Including milled rice.

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