International trade, market prices and stocks

Global trade in millet is estimated to range between 200,000 and 300,000 tons (Table 4a and b), representing roughly 0.1 percent of world trade in cereals or 1.0 percent of world millet production. The major exporters are India, the United States, Argentina and China, which together supply about two-thirds of recorded exports. A sizeable proportion (about 100,000 tons) of the recorded international trade is in proso millet, exported by the United States, Argentina and Australia to other developed countries. Another 60,000 tons are pearl millet exports by India. In recent years, China has started to export some quantities of foxtail millet.

The European Community³, accounts for more than 50 percent of global imports. During the 1992-94 period, the EC purchased an average of 145,000 tons per year (Table 4b). Other major, regular importers are Japan, Switzerland and Canada. In contrast, countries like Kenya, Mauritania, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda no longer import millet, at least officially.

[³. Under the Lomé IV Agreement, ACP countries (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific) can export up to 60,000 tons per year to the EC without import levies.]

Besides this official trade, a substantial unrecorded quantity of millet is traded within subregions in Africa, with grain moving from surplus to deficit areas. In Western Africa, for example, there is movement of millet during good years from surplus producing areas along the southern boundary of the Sahara both southward to higher-rainfall but millet-deficient areas and northward to supply nomadic populations.

The magnitude of officially recorded trade has marginally declined over the past 20-30 years, and there has been a slight change in direction. Imports by developed countries have tended to decrease over the past two decades, while those by the developing countries remained steady through the 1960s, rose during the 1970s, but fell thereafter, having been replaced by rising imports of wheat and rice. Developed countries now account for an estimated 70 percent of recorded world imports, compared with about 50 percent during the early 1960s.

Table 4a. Millet recorded international trade: exports¹.

Exports		1979-81 ('000 tons)	1989-91 ('000 tons)	1992-94 ('000 tons)
Africa		57.9	26.4	20.2
	Mali	0.02	15.0	18.0
	Niger	36.7	0.1	0.0
	Sudan	2.1	1.3	0.0
Asia		12.0	16.8	84.6
	China	8.7	4.6	21.6
	India	0.0	7.0	58.5
North, Central and South America, and the Carribean		145.9	119.1	90.3
	Argentina	112.9	41.0	42.9
	United States	33.0	75.5	45.5
Europe		20.5	33.0	43.7
	EC (12 countries)3	15.6	22.6	28.3
	Hungary	4.4	6.9	13.0
Oceania		14.6	13.6	16.3
	Australia	14.6	13.6	16.3
World		250.9	208.7	255.0
Developing countries		181.9	84.0	147.4
Developed countries		69.0	124.7	107.6

1. Each figure is a 3-year average for the respective period, e.g., 1979-81.
2. Shown as zero for trade less than 50 tons.
3. Including intra-trade among member countries.
Source: FAO

Table 4b. Millet recorded international trade: imports¹.

Imports		1979-81 ('000 tons)	1989-91 ('000 tons)	1992-94 ('000 tons)
Africa		82.0	7.9	40.9
	Angola	0.02	0.0	21.7
	Côte d'Ivoire	0.0	2.6	1.2
	Gabon	0.0	0.0	0.1
	Mauritania	1.0	0.0	0.0
	Mali	40.0	0.0	0.5
	Niger	8.0	2.4	0.5
	Nigeria	26.7	0.5	0.0
	Senegal	0.0	2.1	15.0
	Sudan	0.0	0.0	0.3
	Zimbabwe	0.2	0.0	0.3
Asia		58.9	40.3	44.3
	Japan	53.1	23.7	20.3
	Kuwait	1.1	0.3	0.5
	Malaysia	0.7	2.1	2.4
	Saudi Arabia	1.4	1.5	2.8
	Singapore	0.4	1.1	0.7
	Thailand	0.8	1.7	1.8
North, Central and South America and the Caribbean		4.0	26.2	18.1
	Brazil	3.8	3.7	5.8
	Canada	0.0	5.9	8.2
	Europe	145.7	145.5	155.4
	Austria	2.3	1.2	0.8
	EC (12 countries)3	114.9	131.5	145.2
	Switzerland	26.0	9.2	8.2
Oceania		0.8	0.8	5.7
World		291.4	220.8	264.3
Developing countries		90.5	43.8	75.4
Developed countries		201.0	177.0	188.8

1. Each figure is a 3-year average for the respective period, e.g., 1979-81.
2. Shown as zero for trade less than 50 tons.
3. Including intra-trade among member countries.
Source: FAO

Note: The discrepancies between imports and exports are largely because some exporting countries do not report millet sales at all, or include them under "other cereals".

International trade in millet is controlled by a few specialized trading companies and generally conducted on a sample basis. Only Argentina is reported to have established official export quality standards. International prices are highly volatile, determined largely by supply volumes, and are usually unrelated to those of other major coarse grains such as maize, sorghum or barley. Quotations⁴ are not regularly published or recorded according to official statistics. Table 5 therefore compares export prices for millet in Argentina, Australia and the United States. The high degree of price variability among suppliers, even in the same year, is due to the "thin" market, with small trade volumes and very few buyers and sellers.

[4. International quotations are published in the Public Ledger, London, for UK imports and in STAT (Stat Publishing, Blaine, WA 98230, BC, Canada) for Argentine and US exports.]

Since millet yields in the major exporting countries are substantially lower than for other cereals, and taking into consideration the opportunity cost of growing millet rather than other crops, prices have to be considerably higher to make cultivation remunerative. As a result, prices are generally higher than those of other grains, except in India, where millet and sorghum prices are roughly equal. These prices discourage the use of millet in compound feed. Only on rare occasions when prices are extremely low is millet used as a substitute for sorghum or maize in feed formulations.

Table 5. Average annual export prices for millet.

Year	Argentina (US$/ton)	United States (US$/ton)	Australia (US$/ton)
1979-81 average	129	186	224
1983	147	175	251
1984	166	176	254
1985	107	171	210
1986	139	151	195
1987	108	154	162
1988	123	173	110
1989	190	177	249
1990	143	188	318
1991	107	156	249
1992	114	170	249
1993	156	223	245
1994	228	254	325

Source: FAO

World millet stocks, currently estimated at 3.0 million tons, are relatively unimportant in the global cereal context. They represent only 1.0 percent of world cereal carryover stocks. Most non-commercial stocks are held by farmers (but not officially recorded) in developing countries for household consumption, seed and limited trading on local markets. Such stocks, while critical in terms of food security at household or local level, are not significant in terms of global trade.

Most millets have excellent storage properties and can be kept for up to 4-5 years even in simple storage facilities, such as traditional granaries. This is because the seeds are protected from insect attack by the hard hull covering the endosperm, and because grain is usually harvested and stored in dry weather conditions. Thus, although there may be large year-to-year variations in production, stocks can easily be built up after favourable years.