[5. Covers the period from 1992-94 to 2005. The supply outlook is based on estimates of future area and yields projected from recent trends, with some adjustments based on judgement of how individual countries are likely to perform, assuming no major policy changes. Demand projections are based on United Nations population projections and World Bank income growth rates.]
World millet production is projected to increase from 28 million tons (1992-94 average) to about 33 million tons in the year 2005 (Tables 6 and 7). Most of the growth will be in the developing countries, where production is projected to grow at 1.4 percent per annum from 27 million tons in 1992-94 to 31 million tons in the year 2005. Africa is expected to show the highest growth rates (2.4 percent per annum) and the largest absolute increase in production.
At the global level, growth will come mainly from yield increases (Table 7). In Africa, both area expansion (1.1 percent per annum) and yield increases (1.4 percent) will contribute. However, growth in output will remain slower than population growth, and per caput consumption in Africa will decline. In Asia, production is projected to increase marginally from 15 million tons in 1992-94 to 16 million tons in 2005. The increase will come mainly from higher productivity - yields are expected to grow from 0.9 t/ha in 1992-94 to about 1.1 t/ha in 2005. Most of the production growth is expected to occur in India. In China, millet yields are already among the highest in the world and will increase still further, especially if millet hybrids, which are still not widely used, are developed and disseminated. However, overall output is likely to fall because land-use patterns are changing in favour of other agricultural products and economic activities.
Table 6. Projected millet production, demand and trade ('000 tons), 1992-94 to 2005.
|
|
Actual (1992-94 average) |
Projected (2005) |
|||||||||
|
Production |
Total use |
Food use |
Feed use |
Trade gap1 |
Production |
Total use |
Food use |
Feed use |
Trade gap1 |
||
|
Developing countries |
26,592 |
26,509 |
21,776 |
966 |
83 |
31,394 |
31,421 |
25,510 |
1,542 |
-27 |
|
|
Africa |
11,358 |
11,188 |
8,673 |
187 |
170 |
15,072 |
15,138 |
11,705 |
438 |
-66 |
|
|
|
Northern Africa |
554 |
467 |
365 |
26 |
87 |
765 |
738 |
499 |
136 |
27 |
|
Western Africa |
8,986 |
8,921 |
6,987 |
129 |
65 |
12,024 |
12,051 |
9,430 |
243 |
-27 |
|
|
Central Africa |
447 |
435 |
356 |
4 |
12 |
505 |
502 |
437 |
10 |
3 |
|
|
Eastern Africa |
1,332 |
1,326 |
929 |
29 |
6 |
1,740 |
1,792 |
1,289 |
49 |
-52 |
|
|
Southern Africa |
39 |
39 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
39 |
55 |
50 |
0 |
-16 |
|
|
Asia |
15,171 |
15,284 |
13,103 |
748 |
-113 |
16,229 |
16,235 |
13,805 |
1,104 |
-6 |
|
|
|
Near East |
117 |
118 |
75 |
30 |
-1 |
148 |
145 |
79 |
49 |
3 |
|
Far East |
15,054 |
15,166 |
13,028 |
718 |
-112 |
16,081 |
16,090 |
13,726 |
1,055 |
-9 |
|
|
South America |
63 |
37 |
0 |
31 |
26 |
92 |
46 |
0 |
39 |
46 |
|
|
Developed countries |
1,786 |
1,806 |
513 |
970 |
-20 |
1,662 |
1,595 |
488 |
1,009 |
67 |
|
|
World |
28,378 |
28,314 |
22,289 |
1,936 |
64 |
33,056 |
33,016 |
25,998 |
2,591 |
40 |
|
1. Production minus utilization.
Source: FAO/ICRISAT
Food demand
Millet will continue to be used primarily for human food, and will remain a major source of calories and a vital component of food security in semi-arid areas in the developing world. With the exception of the CIS, food use will remain confined to the developing countries, which currently account for 98 percent of total food use. Food demand for millet in these countries is expected to grow at 1.3 percent per annum between 1992-94 and 2005, with important differences in growth patterns between Asia and Africa. Asia now accounts for 59 percent of total millet food use and Africa for 39 percent. By the year 2005, however, Asia's share will fall to 53 percent while Africa's will rise to 45 percent (Table 6).
In Asia, food use is projected to grow by only 0.4 percent per annum (Table 7), as consumers shift to other foods. Growth will be stronger in Africa (2.6 percent per annum), but will be constrained by supply rather than demand factors. As per caput consumption falls, calories for African households will have to be provided increasingly by imports or by food grains produced in higher potential areas within each country.
One major concern is the likelihood of growing millet deficits, particularly in Africa. By 2005, the projected millet deficits for Africa will be 66,000 tons per year, as against a current "surplus" of 170,000 tons (Table 6). Some of this deficit could be covered by imports or food aid. However, falling per caput production could have serious consequences for food security and nutrition in a region that already experiences frequent food shortfalls. It should be noted that even this projection is based on a somewhat optimistic production growth rate of 2.4 percent per annum between now and 2005.
Feed demand
Global demand for millet as feed in 1992-94 was 1.9 million tons, projected to grow to about 2.6 million tons in 2005 (Table 6). Again, whether such growth will be achieved depends largely on the developing countries. Their feed use of millet is projected to increase by 60 percent by the year 2005, depending mainly on developments in India, Nigeria and Sudan. Feed use in China is expected to decline. The use of millet for bird seed in developed countries is unlikely to change significantly from the current level. These countries are expected to continue to use millet mainly as bird seed because it is too expensive to be competitive as an ingredient in livestock feed, except as a locally produced feed grain on light soils in parts of the Unites States.
Trade
Future world trade in millet is very difficult to project because of its small size, the unknown volume of unrecorded trade and uncertainties regarding both supply and demand. If larger surpluses of millet become available in some countries (for example, in Western Africa), trading opportunities in those regions would increase. However, in view of the huge distances and the high transport costs, and the large variability of tradeable volumes, any significant trade expansion is unlikely. Most international trade in millet up to the year 2005, therefore, is envisaged to remain largely restricted to border transactions among developing countries and limited but regular purchases by the developed countries as in the past.
Table 7. Millet projected growth rates, 1992-94 to 2005.
|
|
Area (%/yr) |
Yield (%/yr) |
Production (%/yr) |
Per caput production (%/yr) |
Utilization |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
Total (%/yr) |
Food (%/yr) |
Feed (%/yr) |
||
|
Developing countries |
0.2 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
-0.5 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
4.2 |
|
|
Africa |
1.1 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
-0.7 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
7.4 |
|
|
|
Northern Africa |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
0.4 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
14.8 |
|
Western Africa |
1.1 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
-0.9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
|
|
Central Africa |
-0.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
-2.1 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
7.9 |
|
|
Eastern Africa |
1.8 |
0.4 |
2.3 |
-1.0 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
|
|
Southern Africa |
6.6 |
-6.1 |
0.5 |
-3.0 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
Asia |
-0.9 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
-1,1 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
|
|
|
Near East |
0.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
-0.7 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
4.2 |
|
Far East |
-0.9 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
-1.0 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
|
|
South America |
2.5 |
0.8 |
3.3 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
|
|
Developed countries |
-2.2 |
1.6 |
-0.6 |
-1.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
0.3 |
|
|
World |
0.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
-0.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
|
Source: FAO/ICRISAT
