PREFACE BY THE SECRETARIAT

The first ECE/FAO study of European timber trends and prospects was published in 1953 and had considerable influence on forest sector policy in the 1950s. The fourth study was published in 1986. Planning for the present study, known as ETTS V, started almost immediately after the completion of ETTS IV, when a small team of specialists started to consider data and methodology for outlook studies.

ETTS V, like its predecessors, has been carried out under the joint auspices of the Timber Committee of the UN Economic Commission for Europe and the FAO European Forestry Commission, who defined its objectives and will consider its implications for forest sector policy at their joint session in September 1996. The Joint FAO/ECE Working Party on Forest Economics and Statistics oversaw the work and monitored progress, notably by reviewing draft conclusions at its session in 1995.

Although the study has been written and coordinated by the ECE and FAO staff in Geneva, many others have contributed to it.

The ETTS V core team developed methods and new approaches to complex problems and guided and encouraged the secretariat throughout the work. Many individual members of the team made contributions to specific parts of the study which are acknowledged in the appropriate chapters.

Almost all European countries nominated national correspondents to provide data and advise the ETTS V authors on national circumstances. In particular, they were asked to comment on the base scenarios presented in chapter 11. The secretariat thanks these correspondents for their valuable input of time and national experience, without which the study would have been impossible.

A number of governments contributed resources, in cash or in kind (i.e. by making available the services of national experts), to carry out the study. The secretariat wishes to express its deep appreciation for the valuable contributions of the governments of Austria, Finland, France, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Both the ECE and the FAO Forestry Department contributed staff and financial resources over a long period to prepare the study, which was carried out in close cooperation with staff of the Forestry Department, notably the Forestry Planning and Statistics Branch.

Despite these major contributions, the responsibility for the content of the study lies with the ECE and FAO staff in Geneva.

Unless otherwise specified, all data presented in the study were collected especially for it or taken from the ECE/FAO data base in Geneva, itself based on regular data collection and verification from countries, and published in the regular issues of the Timber Bulletin.

This study is based on a considerable amount of data collection and analysis at the country level, which cannot be meaningfully presented in a single study. Therefore, it is accompanied by a series of ETTS V working papers (issued as Geneva Timber and Forest Discussion Papers), which present methods and detailed data which could not find a place in the study itself. The ETTS V working papers are as follows:

- The outlook for the European forest resources and roundwood supply, by Heikki Pajuoja (ECE/TIM/DP/4);

- Modeling forest products demand, supply and trade, by David Brooks, Anders Baudin and Peter Schwarzbauer (ECE/TIM/DP/5);

- Projections of forest products demand, supply and trade in ETTS V, by Anders Baudin and David Brooks (ECE/TIM/DP/6);

- Forest resources and consumption of forest products in countries in transition, 1990-2020, by Jarmo Eronen (ECE/TIM/DP/8);

- Price trends for forest products, by Björn Vikinge and Myriam Issartel (ECE/TIM/DP/9);

- ETTS V scenarios (base and alternative) at a national and country group level, (ECE/TIM/DP/10);

- The policy context for the development of the forest and forest industries sector in Europe, by Tim Peck and Jacques Descargues (ECE/TIM/DP/11).

These documents are available from the secretariat at the address given on the back cover.

Finally, the secretariat welcomes comments, corrections and suggestions. These should be addressed to the ETTS V coordinator, Mr. C. Prins, Chief, Timber Section, ECE Trade Division, Palais des Nations, CH 1211 Geneva 10 (Fax +41 22 917 0041, E-mail: [email protected]).

Anders Baudin (Sweden), Darcie Booth (Canada), David Brooks (USA), Jorge Casquilho (Portugal), Ioan Ciurea (Romania), Louk Dielen (the Netherlands), Yves Granger (France), Jari Kuuluvainen (Finland), George-André Morin (France), Heiner Ollmann (Germany), Marion Macovescu (Romania), Heikki Pajuoja (Finland), Peter Schwarzbauer (Austria), Markku Simula (Finland), Hans Stinshoff (Germany), Johan Stolp (the Netherlands), Wladislaw Strykowski (Poland), Sven Svensson (Sweden), Adrian Whiteman (United Kingdom).

Austria: Mr. A. Knieling and Mr. P. Schwarzbauer

Belgium: Mr. J. Parmentier

Bulgaria: Mr. V. Karamfilov

Croatia: Mr. V. Bicanic

Czech Republic: Mr. P. Rybnicek

Denmark: Mr. F.R. Bach

Estonia: Mr. A. Leemet and Mr. K. Karoles

Finland: Mr. R. Seppälä

France: Mr. Y. Granger

Germany: Mr. H. Ollmann

Greece: Mr. S. Vogiatsis

Hungary: Mr. P. Csoka and Mr. M. Möcsenyi

Ireland: Mr. J. Lavelle

Italy: Mr. A. Froncillo and Mr. C. de Fabritiis

Lithuania: Mr. A. Vasiliauskas

The Netherlands: Mr. L. Dielen and Mr. J. Stolp

Norway: Mr. B. Akre and Mr. E. Furuseth

Poland: Mr. W. Strykowski and Mr. B. Lonkiewicz

Portugal: Mr. J. Casquilho

Romania: Mr. M. Macovescu and Mr. I. Ciurea

Spain: Mr. J. Rios Boeta and Mr. R. Puig

Sweden: Mr. S.A. Svensson

Switzerland: Mr. A. Semadeni and Mr. M. Zanetti

Turkey: Mr. M.Y. Kamiloglu

United Kingdom: Mr. A. Whiteman and Mr. R. Selmes