FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report No.1, April 1999

PART II : POSITION BY SUB-REGION

In southern Africa and some countries of eastern Africa, the 1999 cereal crops will be harvested from April, while in other countries of eastern Africa cereal crops are being planted. In central and coastal countries of western Africa, planting has started, but in the Sahelian countries of western Africa it will not begin until June.

Cereal Crop Calendar

In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 1998/99 secondary season crops is complete, except in Ethiopia where planting is underway. Erratic rainfall during the growing season reduced crop production in several countries, particularly cereals and pulses. However, the 1998 main season food production was very good in most of the sub-region. Aggregate 1998/99 cereal production is estimated to have increased by about 25 percent over 1997/98 and is above average. In Somalia, however, food production in the main ("Gu") and the secondary ("Deyr") crop seasons was extremely poor due to drought conditions. The country has had six successive poor harvests. In Kenya, insufficient precipitation during the "short rains" season has resulted in substantially below average cereal and bean output in the central and eastern areas. By contrast, production during the main (long rains) season was above average. In Tanzania, cereal production during the just-ended "Vuli" season in northern areas has been estimated at 60 percent below last year, but production of other foodcrops has been satisfactory. In Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi the recently harvested cereal and bean crops were also reduced by insufficient precipitation, but production of other crops was satisfactory. In Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan, bumper cereal crops were harvested in late 1998.

However, despite the satisfactory food supply situation overall, serious food difficulties are being experienced in Somalia and in pockets elsewhere in the sub-region. The sub-region’s aggregate cereal import requirement for 1999 is estimated at 3.2 million tonnes. Commercial imports are expected to reach 2.5 million tonnes, while aggregate food aid requirement is estimated at 0.7 million tonnes, of which 0.6 million tonnes have been pledged.

In southern Africa, harvest prospects are generally favourable following abundant and widespread rains in recent months. If the favourable conditions continue, a recovery in production is anticipated in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia, while good harvests are in prospect in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Swaziland. Overall, indications are that the sub-region's 1999 cereal crop may exceed the 1998 production, which was estimated at 18.3 million tonnes, about 15 percent below average.

However, reduced production and tight food supplies are expected in Angola due to renewed fighting since late 1998. Emergency assistance is also required in parts of central Mozambique where torrential rains in late February and early March resulted in flooding with loss of human lives, property and crops.

In western Africa, seasonably dry conditions prevail in the Sahel while the growing season is starting in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea. Reflecting generally favourable growing conditions, particularly during August and September 1998, above average to record crops have been gathered in the main producing countries of the Sahel. Rains started generally on time and were adequate, except in Senegal where they were late in the centre and north. No prolonged dry spells were experienced, except in Cape Verde in October.

Final official estimates released on 22 March 1999 indicate that aggregate cereal production for the nine CILSS countries in 1998 as a record 10.4 million tonnes, which is 35.4 percent higher than in 1997 and 20.5 percent above the average of the last five years. However, cereal production in Guinea-Bissau is anticipated to be well below average due to civil strife which hampered agricultural activities.

In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the rainy season has just started and planting of the first maize crop is in progress. Cereal harvests in 1998 were generally good in Benin, Nigeria and Togo but less favourable in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Liberia and Sierra Leone remain heavily dependent on international food assistance.

The aggregate 1998 cereal output for the eight countries along the Gulf of Guinea (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Togo) is estimated at around 26.9 million tonnes compared to 26.2 million tonnes in 1997.

Cereal import requirements of the sub-region in 1999 is estimated at 5.36 million tonnes. Anticipated commercial imports are estimated at 4.92 million tonnes and the food aid requirement at 0.44 million tonnes mainly in wheat and rice. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late March 1999 amount to around 249 000 tonnes, of which 106 000 tonnes have been delivered so far. No imported food aid in coarse grains is necessary for Chad, Guinea, Mali and Niger. Local purchases are strongly recommended to cover ongoing or foreseen food aid programmes or for the replenishment of the national security stocks.

In central Africa, average to above-average harvests were gathered in most countries in 1998. Aggregate cereal output is anticipated to be average or above average in Cameroon and Central African Republic. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, civil strife continues to disrupt agricultural activities, especially in the east. Prospects for the second season starting in April are poor due to insecurity and shortage of seeds. In Kinshasa, the deterioration of the economic and financial situation in the city has severely reduced access to food by the poor and vulnerable groups. In the Republic of Congo, the food supply situation has deteriorated significantly in Brazzaville and the Pool region following a resurgence of civil disturbances and consequent population displacements. Large sections of the population face food access difficulties due to loss of jobs, high food prices and a seriously disrupted food marketing system. However, some improvement in the security situation has been reported.

For the 1998/99 or 1999 marketing year, the cereal import requirement for the seven countries of the sub-region is estimated at 796 000 tonnes. Food aid pledges reported to GIEWS as of late March amount to 10 000 tonnes, of which 5 000 tonnes have been delivered.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Cereal Imports and Food Aid Requirements by Sub-Region (in thousand tonnes)

Note: Totals computed from unrounded data.