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Climate change and global market integration: Implications for global economic activities, agricultural commodities and food security

The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2018: Background paper











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    Climate Change and Food Systems: Global assessments and implications for food security and trade 2015
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    This book collects the findings of a group of scientists and economists who have taken stock of climate change impacts on food and agriculture at global and regional levels over the past two decades. The evidence presented describes how global warming will impact where and how food is produced and discusses the significant consequences for food security, health and nutrition, water scarcity and climate adaptation. The book also highlights the implications for global food trade. The evidence pres ented in the book is presented in a way that is widely accessible to policy decision makers and practitioners and makes a distinct contribution towards a greater science-policy interchange. Put together, the different analyses in the book paint a comprehensive perspective linking climate change to food, nutrition, water, and trade along with suggested policy responses.
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    Trade, food security and climate change: conceptual linkages and policy implications 2018
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    Agriculture is not only a contributor to climate change, it will also be severely affected by climate change. Some effects of warming on crop yields, increased weed and pest occurrences and the effects of extreme events (e.g. floods, storms, droughts) on agricultural production are already observed. These are likely to intensify in the future leading to declines in agricultural production in many parts of the world, fluctuations in world market prices and an increased number of people at risk of food insecurity. The paper provides an overview of the complex relationships between climate change and agricultural trade, their connection with food security and possible policy implications. While there is no clear evidence on the net effect of trade on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, trade could play an important role in climate change adaptation for ensuring food security. High-latitude countries can expect productivity gains from climate change and could export a part of their surpluses to adversely affected countries. Low-latitude countries will be most severely affected in terms of production losses and may need to buffer these losses through increased food imports. Open markets could ease the exchange between food surplus and food deficit regions. Potential environmental externalities and financial and distributional impacts on developing countries would need to be further investigated and, if necessary, accounted for through targeted policy measures. The first domestic climate policies proposed by the countries as part of their obligations under the Paris Agreement suggest close interlinkages with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. They would need to be coordinated and reconciled at international level to promote climate change mitigation, while, at the same time, ensure the free tradability of food as a crucial adaptation measure to climate change
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