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Global forest sector outlook 2050: Assessing future demand and sources of timber for a sustainable economy

Background paper for The State of the World’s Forests 2022











FAO. 2022. Global forest sector outlook 2050: Assessing future demand and sources of timber for a sustainable economy – Background paper for The State of the World’s Forests 2022. FAO Forestry Working Paper, No. 31. Rome.




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    The European Forest Sector Outlook Study presents long term trends for supply and demand of forest products (roundwood, sawnwood, panels, pulp, paper, non-wood products) and services and outlook to 2020, in western and eastern Europe and four major CIS countries, including Russia. It reviews trends for the forest resource, trade, markets and recycling. It stresses the future shift in the balance of the sector to the east, and the importance of cross-sectoral issues, notably consequences for the forest sector of energy, environment and trade policies, which are examined in some detail. The study is based on a major collaborative effort by experts in the countries covered by the study, under the auspices of the UNECE Timber Committee and the FAO European Forestry Commission. The study identifies a number of major policy issues and proposes some policy recommendations, as a basis for future debate.
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    Strategy for self-reliance in wood sector of India
    XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
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    The study analyses present demand and supply scenario as well as makes future projections of wood demand in India. Domestic sources constitute forests and trees outside forests. It is deducted that the forests of India supply around 25-30 m cum of wood and another 20-25 m cum is supplied from trees outside forests. Therefore,the total supply from domestic sources is about 45-55 m cum. Overall, it is estimated based on the past data, that by 2022, India’s demand of wood will be around 75-100 million cubic meters (m cum). India’s trade in wood and wood products is also studied in detail to get a holistic picture of the wood sector in the country and to understand international dynamics of the wood trade. The ITTO provides figure of 50 m cum of logs produced by India and another 4 m cum of logs imported into the country. India is a net importer of wood and wood products. The total importof wood products was 6.8 b US $ in 2019 with exports valued at 1.2 b US $. As of 2019, wood pulp constituted 20%, Printing and writing paper 19%, Recovered paper 14%, industrial roundwood and newsprint both 11% of the imports. The challenge for India is to overcome the shortage of about 25-30 m cum of timber so that imports are minimised as well as the domestic illegal supply can be stopped. Subsequently, it can be a net exporter of wood and wood products. For this, strategy to enhance output from its production forests as well agroforestry sector are discussed and necessary policy interventions are suggested. Keywords: India, forest, wood, wood products, self-reliance ID: 3484302
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    XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
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    The forest-based sector plays an important role in a growing bioeconomy. Long-term resource availability and allocation will be a major challenge for the bioeconomy development. Therefore, this study aims to assess how forest product markets could develop in a growing bioeconomy and which interdependencies occur between traditional and emerging forest-based subsectors. Especially, the demand for wood-based textile fibres could dynamically grow over the next decades while there might be conflicting demand for wood resources from traditional subsectors. Thus, we include dissolving pulp, lignocellulose-based textile fibres and chemical derivatives in our modelling assessment. For this purpose, we extend the product structure of a partial equilibrium model, the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM). We use an econometric approach to compute demand and trade elasticities of the emerging products. We parameterize the extended model with these elasticities and analyze three different bioeconomy scenarios. In the first scenario, the demand for woody biomass remains similar to the current pattern. In the second scenario, the use of woody biomass increases primarily to satisfy growing input demand from the energy sector. In the third scenario, biomass is increasingly used as input to produce diverse industrial and everyday products. The simulation results show that, in the third scenario, where the world is changing toward a sustainable bioeconomy, wood consumption pattern shifts away from fuelwood (-30% by 2050) and paper products (-32% by 2050) towards emerging products. In this context, the dissolving pulp subsector could outpace the continuously shrinking paper pulp subsector in 2050. For this development, the dissolving pulp subsector mainly uses released resources from the decreasing paper pulp production. Simultaneously, wood-based panels are increasingly applied (+196% by 2050) while the growth of sawnwood remains limited. Keywords: Economic Development, Value chain, Research, Sustainable forest management, Policies ID: 3484635

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