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Book (stand-alone)Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interactions between developed and developing countries
Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 10.
2004Also available in:
No results found.The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 5.4 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions between the possible strategies of two wide country groups – developed and d eveloping countries on the basis of game theory, and to search for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached. -
Book (stand-alone)The effects of global value chain (GVC) participation on the economic growth of the agricultural and food sectors
Background paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2020
2020Also available in:
No results found.Trade liberalization has long been advocated as a means to foster growth and welfare. In developing countries, the expansion of global value chain (GVC) participation of agriculture and food sectors could support transformation from a subsistence-oriented and farm-centered system to a commercialized, productive and off-farm centered one. While empirical evidence examining the linkages between GVC participation and economic performance in the agricultural sector has traditionally relied on case studies at the product level, the availability of new aggregate data on trade in value added, now provides an unprecedented opportunity to carry out a global empirical assessment of the linkages. The present paper examines new measures of GVCs participation and positioning from the EORA panel data for the period 1995–2015 (Nenci, 2020) and tests their effects on changes in agriculture value added per worker. The results show that changes in GVC participation are, on average and ceteris paribus, positively associated with changes in agriculture value added per worker, net to time-invariant confounders, whereas mixed results are found on the effects of countries’ positioning along the value chain. In the conclusive remarks, the authors argue that import tariff and non-tariff barriers – including barriers to service trade – should be seen as the first obstacle to increase GVC participation and improve domestic value-added. The presence of signs of heterogeneity by geographical location confirms that general universal recipes do not exist. -
Book (stand-alone)TRADE REFORMS AND FOOD SECURITY
CONCEPTUALIZING THE LINKAGES
2003Also available in:
No results found.Although given prominence in the context of the current World Trade Organization (WTO) trade negotiations, trade reforms are generally a component of a wider set of economic and institutional reforms. The complexity of reform packages, the wide variation in policy sets, the context within which they are used, and the thoroughness with which they are followed through, makes it extremely difficult to isolate the impact of specific trade reforms on the food security status of developing countries. As yet, there is no clear consensus on answers to general questions, such as “will developing countries benefit from reduced agricultural protection in economies of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)?”, let alone more specific questions which might include “how can developing country governments best promote smallholder agriculture in the new global environment, and what form of special and differential treatment might be required to allow them to do so?” In many c ases, “successful” reforms have been achieved not in isolation, but as a consequence of associated policy implementation. In drawing lessons from reforms that are perceived to have benefited food insecure groups, or at the very least, not to have disadvantaged them, it is therefore important to identify the complementary policies that facilitated the process of adjustment to more productive activities, and any compensatory policies that acted to alleviate the transitional losses that insecure gr oups may otherwise have faced. A clearer understanding of the often-obscured effects of trade reform on food security is therefore vital if the drivers of further reform are to result in changes to the benefit of insecure and vulnerable groups in poor countries.
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