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Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 3 October 2006








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    Book (stand-alone)
    Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 2 July 2006 2006
    The world cereal balance will tighten in 2006/07: the latest forecast for cereal production in 2006 continues to show a slight decrease in global output while utilization is expected to grow significantly. With a recovery in feed use and an expansion of industrial uses, world stocks are expected to be drawn down sharply. International prices of most cereals remained firm or rose further in recent months, supported by strong demand and tighter supply prospects. In the Low-Income F ood-Deficit Countries, as a group, a modest growth in cereal output is forecast in 2006, while their imports are expected to increase after the substantial decline of 2005/06.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 1 April 2006 2006
    World cereal production in 2006 is forecast to decline marginally from last year's good level. Wheat output is expected to decrease reflecting smaller crops in the United States and the CIS in Europe, due to adverse weather. Production of coarse grains is tentatively forecast to decline mostly as a result of reduced plantings anticipated in the United States. Rice output may increase as very early prospects are favourable. In Eastern Africa, recent rains eased somewhat drought conditions i n the pastoral areas of the Horn, where 7.9 million people require emergency food aid. In Southern Africa, the 2006 maize crop, being gathered, has recovered from last year's drought-affected harvest in most countries of the subregion. However in South Africa and Angola, production will decline. In North Africa, bumper wheat and barley crops are in prospect. In Asia, the outlook for the 2006 wheat crop, being harvested, has deteriorated in India, but it is positive in other main producers of the region. Emergency assistance in needed in Mongolia and Timore-Leste following a sharply reduced 2005 cereal production. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the 2006 wheat output is anticipated substantially up in Mexico. In South America, maize output is forecast as sharply down in Argentina but production will recover in Brazil. However, rice crop in Brazil is put well below the record level of 2005. In Paraguay, the soybean crop will be again severely reduced by dry weather. A larger 2006 wheat crop is forecast in the EU but production is expected to decline in the United States. In the Russian Federation and Ukraine this year's wheat production is put sharply down due to abnormally cold winter.
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