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DocumentFish trade in the Near East region 1979
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No results found.The paper examines recent trends in the production, trade and consumption of fish in the Near East region, and presents perspectives of future demand for and production of fish in the region, so as to highlight possibilities for the further expansion of trade in fish, both within the region and externally. The paper concluded that a two-fold increase in total regional requirements of fish and fish products seems likely by 1985 and that, taking normative assumptions regarding probable fish output in the region, a serious deficit could arise between regional production of fish and projected demand. However, at the individual country level, certain nations are likely to have surpluses of production over domestic demand, which could form the basis for intensified internal trade in the region. The possibilities for the export to international markets of certain high-value species are also reviewed. The paper concludes with an Appendix giving more detailed country-by country consideration o f the present and prospective state of fish production and fish trade. -
DocumentMarkets for fish meal in the Near East Region 1978
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No results found.At its Fifth Session, held in Cochin, 19-26 October 1977, the Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission (IOFC) recognized that, whilst every priority should be given to the use, wherever possible, of fish for direct human food, in some instances the reduction of certain species to fish meal might be the only way at the present time of getting a viable fishery started. Especially where small shoaling pelagic species are concerned it would appear that, until considerably more work is done on fish processi ng technology and market development, the only processing method presently suitable for handling high volume catches is conversion to fish meal and oil. In particular, it seems unlikely that in the foreseeable future the mesopelagic stocks of the Arabian Sea will be useable primarily for direct food purposes. At the same time, many of the countries in the Near East region are placing high emphasis upon the development of domestic poultry produce industries and are likely to have rapidly expandin g requirements for fish meal. With these factors in mind the International Indian Ocean Fishery Survey and Development Programme commissioned the following report in an attempt to identify the nature and potential size of such regional markets for fish meal whose requirements might, at least in part be satisfied by fish meal produced by reduction industries based in the Near East region itself. -
Book (stand-alone)Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps 2017
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No results found.A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential future fish demand and supply gaps at the country (nearly 200 countries or territories), regional (about 40 country groups), and global levels for nine species groups. Salient results at the global, regional and country levels are presented in the main text. Key results for all countries and all the nine species groups (including both standard and conservative projections) are documented in the appendix. The results indic ate that: (i) if fish prices and consumer preferences remain the same, income growth would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection); (ii) the income-driven per capita fish demand hike, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million tonnes under the conservative projection); (iii) the 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated b y the trend growth of world aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand growth (or 62 percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-supply gap of 28 million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative projection) in the early 2020s; (iv) the demand-supply gap for shellfish (i.e. crustaceans and molluscs) would be bigger than that for finfish – they would account for, respectively, 55 percent and 45 percent of the 28-million-tonne fish deman d-supply gap; (v) while world aquaculture production following its recent trend would grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, it would take a 9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent under the conservative projection) to fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s; (vi) the trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth driven by population and income growth; e xcess demand is expected to occur in 170 countries (or 163 countries under the conservative projection); and (vii) should the world aquaculture production fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e. 9.9 percent or 6.9 percent under the standard or conservative projection), and assuming world capture fisheries production would remain at the current level, the world fish price would have to increase to reduce fish demand in order to clear the market (i.e. no demand-supply gap). Results gen erated by the short-term projection model are useful for policymaking, development aids, business or investment planning, and other decision-making by various stakeholders in aquaculture and fisheries. They are a complement to and can potentially enhance the understanding of the results of more sophisticated forecasting models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model.
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