FAO Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin

FAO

FAO Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin

Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions. No. 30, January-March 2019

Year of publication 2019

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 64

Author FAO

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Journal, magazine, bulletin

Edition 1

Full item page

Synopsis (short abstract) During the period January to March 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe, where they may persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (such as droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heatwaves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO or changes in vegetation cover or water temperature), human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters. In relation to food security, and according to the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report (January- March 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 40 countries (31 in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 1 in the Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats might compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts. Twenty-nine plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period January-March 2019. A total of 275 forecasts were conducted in 120 countries. According to the forecasts, the following pests and diseases represent a high to moderate risk to the food chain in some countries for the period January-March 2019: Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Africa, African swine fever (ASF) in Asia and Europe, Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), Avian influenza (AI) in Africa and Asia, and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Africa, Asia and Europe for Animal diseases and zoonoses; Fall armyworm (FAW), Banana fusarium wilt disease (BFWD) and Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) in Africa and Asia, and Cassava brown streak disease (CBSD), Wheat rust and Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) in Africa for Plant pests and diseases; Desert Locust in Africa and Asia for Locusts; and Blue gum chalcid, Red gum lerp psyllid, Bronze bug and Polyphagous shot hole borer (PSHB) in Africa, Dry cone syndrome in Asia, Bark beetles in Europe and the Americas, and Pine processionary moth in Europe for Forest pests and diseases; Tilapia Lake Virus in the in the Americas and Asia, and Acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND) in Asia for Aquatic diseases.

Language English

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During the period April to June 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe, where they may persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – ENSO –,changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters. In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (January to March 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 40 countries (31 in Africa, eight in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts. MAIN FOOD CHAIN THREATS Thirty-two plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period April to June 2019, among them twenty-seven pests and diseases are forecasted to be of moderate to high likelihood of occurrence as shown in table 3. A total of 275 forecasts were conducted in 119 countries.
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During the period January to March 2018, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in the regions of Africa, Americas, Asia, and Europe where they will be either persisting within a country, or possibly spreading to neighbouring countries, or will be latent and re-emerge/amplify at a certain time. Twenty-eight plant and forest pests and diseases and animal and aquatic diseases were forecasted by FAO experts for the period January to March 2018. A total of 215 forecasts were conducted in 111 countries. According to the forecasts, the following pests and diseases will be representing a high or moderate risk to the food chain for the period January to March 2018: African swine fever, Avian influenza, Foot-and-mouth disease, Lumpy skin disease, and Rift Valley fever for Animal diseases including zoonosis; Tilapia Lake Virus disease for Aquatic diseases; Bark beetles, Blue gum chalcid, Bronze bug, Dry cone syndrome, Pine processionary moth, and Red gum lerp psyllid for Forest pests and diseases; Desert Locust and Red Locust for Locusts; Banana bunchy top disease, Banana fusarium wilt disease, Cassava brown streak and mosaic diseases, Fall armyworm, and Wheat rust for Plant pests and diseases.
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During the period July to September 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (e.g. intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (e.g. droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -ENSO, changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (e.g. cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters. In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (July to September 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 41 countries (31 in Africa, nine in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts. Main Food Chain Threats: Thirty three plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period July to September 2019. A total of 284 forecasts were conducted in 122 countries.