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Future prospects for fish and fishery products









Westlund, L. Future prospects for fish and fishery products. 5. Forecasting fish consumption and demand analysis: a literature review. FAO Fisheries Circular. No. 972/5. Rome, FAO. 2005. 17p.


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    Book (series)
    Future prospects for fish and fishery products. 4. Fish consumption in the European Union in 2015 and 2030. Part 1. European Overview 2006
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    This report presents the major results for fish consumption (consumption per capita and apparent consumption), production (captures and aquaculture and commodities) and fish trade (exports and imports) estimations and projections for 28 countries in Europe from 1989 to 2030. The projections show an increase in the demand for seafood products to 2030. The average per capita consumption by the 28 countries will move form 22 kg/caput/year in 1998 to 24 kg/caput/year in 2030. The two additiona l kilograms per capita signify that the net supply will have to increase by 1.6 million tonnes (MT) (respectively 1.1 Mt for the 2 extra kg per person and 550 000 tonnes due to the 22 million population growth over the period). Aquaculture growth will not be able to meet the increasing demand; therefore, imports are projected to rise to 11 Mt (+15 percent from 1998), increasing the dependency of Europe on the rest of the world for its fish and fish products.
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    Book (series)
    Future prospects for fish and fishery products. 4. Fish consumption in the European Union in 2015 and 2030. Part 2. Country projections [Available on the Web only] 2008
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    This report presents the major results by country for fish consumption (consumption per capita and apparent consumption), production (captures and aquaculture and commodities) and fish trade (exports and imports) estimations and projections for 28 countries in Europe from 1989 to 2030. The increasing demand of ready-to-eat products are projected for everywhere in Europe in 2030 but with a more marked trend in the western countries because of high purchasing power in the region. Changes in consumption are mainly changes in commodities rather than species: the same species will be consumed in 2030 but in a different form. Eastern European countries will progressively catch up and conform to the consumption pattern of the Western countries. The improvement of their economies and changing consumption habits will slowly allow Eastern countries to develop a demand-driven market rather than the current supply-driven one. But, behind the apparent standardisation of consumption, regional differences will still exist: a Spanish consumer will not have the same consumption pattern as a Swedish or a Romanian one. National preferences will be conditioned through the net supply of commodities that respect historical tastes and habits but also integrate modern living conditions.

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