Table A.2. Comparison between probit and spatial probit in the headcount index and in the percentage of poor people at county level, rural sample | ||||||
County |
Total poor |
Total pop. |
% poor |
Difference [((b-a)/b)*100] |
||
Bigman (a) |
Spatial p. (b) |
Bigman (a) |
Spatial p. (b) |
|||
Cuenca |
74 407 |
71 075 |
136 047 |
54.7 |
52.2 |
-4.687 |
Giron |
10 141 |
10 088 |
13 191 |
76.9 |
76.5 |
-0.525 |
Gualaceo |
22 554 |
22 576 |
27 014 |
83.5 |
83.6 |
0.101 |
Nabon |
11 716 |
11 768 |
14 606 |
80.2 |
80.6 |
0.436 |
Paute |
16 207 |
16 327 |
21 887 |
74.0 |
74.6 |
0.736 |
Pucara |
14 586 |
14 626 |
16 626 |
87.7 |
88.0 |
0.272 |
San Fernando |
3 324 |
3 342 |
4 298 |
77.3 |
77.8 |
0.526 |
Santa Isabel |
14 242 |
14 181 |
17 160 |
83.0 |
82.6 |
-0.434 |
Sigsig |
20 566 |
20 619 |
25 103 |
81.9 |
82.1 |
0.258 |
Oña |
2 461 |
2 473 |
3 244 |
75.9 |
76.2 |
0.503 |
Chordeleg |
7 475 |
7 467 |
9 683 |
77.2 |
77.1 |
-0.111 |
El Pan |
2 672 |
2 653 |
3 690 |
72.4 |
71.9 |
-0.750 |
Sevilla De Oro |
4 928 |
4 902 |
6 553 |
75.2 |
74.8 |
-0.529 |
Guachapala |
2 518 |
2 543 |
3 435 |
73.3 |
74.0 |
1.001 |
Guaranda |
43 786 |
44 055 |
50 511 |
86.7 |
87.2 |
0.611 |
Chillanes |
15 785 |
15 954 |
20 477 |
77.1 |
77.9 |
1.060 |
Chimbo |
9 699 |
9 700 |
15 602 |
62.2 |
62.2 |
0.005 |
Echeandia |
6 092 |
6 105 |
9 821 |
62.0 |
62.2 |
0.216 |
San Miguel |
18 048 |
18 004 |
28 044 |
64.4 |
64.2 |
-0.242 |
Caluma |
6 095 |
5 998 |
9 828 |
62.0 |
61.0 |
-1.603 |
Las Naves |
3 777 |
3 814 |
5 075 |
74.4 |
75.2 |
0.974 |
Azogues |
34 017 |
34 051 |
40 510 |
84.0 |
84.1 |
0.098 |
Biblian |
16 665 |
16 719 |
22 286 |
74.8 |
75.0 |
0.323 |
Cañar |
40 194 |
40 200 |
44 080 |
91.2 |
91.2 |
0.015 |
La Troncal |
7 628 |
7 468 |
9 810 |
77.8 |
76.1 |
-2.141 |
El Tambo |
6 116 |
6 152 |
6 974 |
87.7 |
88.2 |
0.582 |
Deleg |
5 431 |
5 485 |
7 298 |
74.4 |
75.2 |
0.991 |
Tulcan |
21 574 |
21 352 |
26 089 |
82.7 |
81.8 |
-1.038 |
Bolivar (De Carchi) |
12 471 |
12 442 |
15 157 |
82.3 |
82.1 |
-0.235 |
Espejo |
9 541 |
9 469 |
13 188 |
72.3 |
71.8 |
-0.767 |
Mira |
11 484 |
11 446 |
14 040 |
81.8 |
81.5 |
-0.331 |
Montufar |
15 445 |
15 409 |
17 481 |
88.4 |
88.1 |
-0.230 |
San Pedro De Huaca |
5 109 |
5 058 |
6 485 |
78.8 |
78.0 |
-1.020 |
Latacunga |
63 180 |
62 597 |
77 721 |
81.3 |
80.5 |
-0.931 |
La Mana |
9 356 |
9 271 |
12 060 |
77.6 |
76.9 |
-0.916 |
Pangua |
13 058 |
13 149 |
16 814 |
77.7 |
78.2 |
0.688 |
Pujili |
34 069 |
34 188 |
39 038 |
87.3 |
87.6 |
0.348 |
Salcedo |
29 579 |
29 414 |
37 740 |
78.4 |
77.9 |
-0.560 |
Saquisili |
9 893 |
9 857 |
12 829 |
77.1 |
76.8 |
-0.375 |
Sigchos |
16 943 |
17 010 |
18 453 |
91.8 |
92.2 |
0.389 |
Riobamba |
53 423 |
53 242 |
69 274 |
77.1 |
76.9 |
-0.340 |
Alausi |
31 583 |
31 734 |
33 910 |
93.1 |
93.6 |
0.474 |
Colta |
41 615 |
42 052 |
47 568 |
87.5 |
88.4 |
1.038 |
Chambo |
7 636 |
7 656 |
9 463 |
80.7 |
80.9 |
0.268 |
Chunchi |
11 660 |
11 646 |
13 490 |
86.4 |
86.3 |
-0.119 |
Guamote |
26 917 |
27 013 |
28 058 |
95.9 |
96.3 |
0.355 |
Guano |
25 241 |
25 173 |
30 522 |
82.7 |
82.5 |
-0.272 |
Pallatanga |
7 864 |
7 919 |
9 482 |
82.9 |
83.5 |
0.699 |
Penipe |
5 788 |
5 730 |
7 078 |
81.8 |
81.0 |
-1.005 |
Cumanda |
5 711 |
5 785 |
7 097 |
80.5 |
81.5 |
1.282 |
Machala |
7 958 |
7 648 |
13 410 |
59.3 |
57.0 |
-4.058 |
Arenillas |
4 866 |
4 754 |
6 728 |
72.3 |
70.7 |
-2.369 |
Atahualpa |
3 728 |
3 626 |
6 142 |
60.7 |
59.0 |
-2.803 |
Balsas |
2 651 |
2 587 |
4 066 |
65.2 |
63.6 |
-2.488 |
Chilla |
2 055 |
2 033 |
2 767 |
74.3 |
73.5 |
-1.083 |
El Guabo |
14 128 |
13 888 |
16 955 |
83.3 |
81.9 |
-1.732 |
Huaquillas |
137 |
138 |
174 |
79.0 |
79.0 |
0.085 |
Marcabeli |
3 281 |
3 254 |
4 889 |
67.1 |
66.6 |
-0.836 |
Pasaje |
12 641 |
12 468 |
16 557 |
76.3 |
75.3 |
-1.391 |
Piñas |
7 954 |
7 765 |
11 681 |
68.1 |
66.5 |
-2.429 |
Portovelo |
3 541 |
3 467 |
4 573 |
77.4 |
75.8 |
-2.131 |
Santa Rosa |
9 665 |
9 376 |
14 465 |
66.8 |
64.8 |
-3.085 |
Zaruma |
12 566 |
12 331 |
16 455 |
76.4 |
74.9 |
-1.900 |
Las Lajas |
3 943 |
3 883 |
4 866 |
81.0 |
79.8 |
-1.529 |
Esmeraldas |
16 344 |
16 308 |
22 314 |
73.2 |
73.1 |
-0.218 |
Eloy Alfaro |
22 267 |
22 237 |
25 389 |
87.7 |
87.6 |
-0.135 |
Muisne |
18 278 |
18 095 |
22 537 |
81.1 |
80.3 |
-1.007 |
Quininde |
45 264 |
44 412 |
53 254 |
85.0 |
83.4 |
-1.917 |
San Lorenzo |
9 993 |
9 977 |
11 322 |
88.3 |
88.1 |
-0.157 |
Atacames |
15 801 |
15 980 |
18 014 |
87.7 |
88.7 |
1.122 |
Rio Verde |
16 317 |
16 211 |
19 911 |
81.9 |
81.4 |
-0.649 |
Guayaquil |
4 623 |
4 548 |
34 618 |
13.4 |
13.1 |
-1.636 |
Alfredo Baquerizo Moreno |
8 224 |
8 308 |
10 274 |
80.0 |
80.9 |
1.014 |
Balao |
4 777 |
4 738 |
5 966 |
80.1 |
79.4 |
-0.814 |
Balzar |
16 107 |
16 293 |
21 082 |
76.4 |
77.3 |
1.138 |
Colimes |
15 342 |
15 190 |
19 232 |
79.8 |
79.0 |
-1.001 |
Daule |
31 395 |
31 159 |
39 944 |
78.6 |
78.0 |
-0.756 |
Duran |
2 078 |
2 074 |
2 837 |
73.2 |
73.1 |
-0.211 |
El Empalme |
23 407 |
23 385 |
31 989 |
73.2 |
73.1 |
-0.095 |
El Triunfo |
5 600 |
5 464 |
7 240 |
77.3 |
75.5 |
-2.475 |
Milagro |
15 755 |
15 285 |
22 760 |
69.2 |
67.2 |
-3.074 |
Naranjal |
23 138 |
22 843 |
23 468 |
98.6 |
97.3 |
-1.294 |
Naranjito |
5 769 |
5 651 |
8 487 |
68.0 |
66.6 |
-2.095 |
Palestina |
4 657 |
4 638 |
5 883 |
79.2 |
78.8 |
-0.404 |
Pedro Carbo |
9 090 |
9 088 |
11 648 |
78.0 |
78.0 |
-0.030 |
Salinas |
4 086 |
4 004 |
5 302 |
77.1 |
75.5 |
-2.047 |
Samborondon |
12 897 |
12 920 |
16 494 |
78.2 |
78.3 |
0.175 |
Santa Elena |
21 143 |
21 046 |
24 338 |
86.9 |
86.5 |
-0.459 |
Santa Lucia |
17 820 |
17 612 |
20 812 |
85.6 |
84.6 |
-1.176 |
Urbina Jado |
33 197 |
33 368 |
36 606 |
90.7 |
91.2 |
0.512 |
Yaguachi |
17 083 |
17 031 |
23 078 |
74.0 |
73.8 |
-0.307 |
Playas |
1 302 |
1 266 |
1 946 |
66.9 |
65.1 |
-2.837 |
Simon Bolivar |
13 632 |
13 591 |
17 240 |
79.1 |
78.8 |
-0.303 |
Coronel Marcelino Maridueña |
2 984 |
2 906 |
4 026 |
74.1 |
72.2 |
-2.695 |
Lomas De Sargentillo |
1 016 |
1 010 |
1 205 |
84.3 |
83.8 |
-0.607 |
Nobol (Piedrahita) |
7 928 |
7 793 |
10 524 |
75.3 |
74.1 |
-1.732 |
General Antonio Elizalde (Bucay) |
1 280 |
1 281 |
1 890 |
67.7 |
67.8 |
0.046 |
Isidro Ayora |
4 705 |
4 646 |
5 797 |
81.2 |
80.1 |
-1.265 |
Ibarra |
32 791 |
32 638 |
38 502 |
85.2 |
84.8 |
-0.466 |
Antonio Ante |
11 013 |
11 033 |
13 345 |
82.5 |
82.7 |
0.182 |
Cotacachi |
24 245 |
24 068 |
27 199 |
89.1 |
88.5 |
-0.735 |
Otavalo |
30 603 |
30 547 |
34 738 |
88.1 |
87.9 |
-0.184 |
Pimampiro |
14 035 |
14 020 |
15 359 |
91.4 |
91.3 |
-0.111 |
San Miguel De Urcuqui |
11 263 |
11 061 |
13 736 |
82.0 |
80.5 |
-1.825 |
Loja |
41 273 |
40 825 |
50 188 |
82.2 |
81.3 |
-1.099 |
Calvas |
16 884 |
16 895 |
19 292 |
87.5 |
87.6 |
0.066 |
Catamayo |
7 475 |
7 441 |
8 899 |
84.0 |
83.6 |
-0.466 |
Celica |
11 264 |
11 325 |
14 329 |
78.6 |
79.0 |
0.538 |
Chaguarpamba |
8 111 |
8 179 |
9 850 |
82.3 |
83.0 |
0.838 |
Espindola |
15 830 |
15 815 |
18 191 |
87.0 |
86.9 |
-0.095 |
Gonzanama |
13 908 |
13 822 |
17 276 |
80.5 |
80.0 |
-0.625 |
Macara |
6 044 |
6 085 |
7 249 |
83.4 |
83.9 |
0.674 |
Paltas |
19 594 |
19 567 |
23 050 |
85.0 |
84.9 |
-0.136 |
Puyango |
13 298 |
13 309 |
16 804 |
79.1 |
79.2 |
0.083 |
Saraguro |
22 972 |
23 002 |
26 842 |
85.6 |
85.7 |
0.131 |
Sozoranga |
8 338 |
8 330 |
9 729 |
85.7 |
85.6 |
-0.085 |
Zapotillo |
7 830 |
7 931 |
10 234 |
76.5 |
77.5 |
1.269 |
Pindal |
6 417 |
6 470 |
7 457 |
86.1 |
86.8 |
0.820 |
Quilanga |
4 445 |
4 463 |
5 553 |
80.0 |
80.4 |
0.409 |
Olmedo |
4 380 |
4 409 |
5 146 |
85.1 |
85.7 |
0.658 |
Babahoyo |
36 858 |
36 153 |
48 740 |
75.6 |
74.2 |
-1.949 |
Baba |
22 580 |
22 500 |
29 406 |
76.8 |
76.5 |
-0.357 |
Montalvo |
7 868 |
7 806 |
11 568 |
68.0 |
67.5 |
-0.791 |
Pueblo Viejo |
19 168 |
19 364 |
22 662 |
84.6 |
85.4 |
1.013 |
Quevedo |
10 024 |
9 902 |
15 869 |
63.2 |
62.4 |
-1.225 |
Urdaneta |
11 066 |
10 813 |
16 719 |
66.2 |
64.7 |
-2.332 |
Ventanas |
27 290 |
27 362 |
35 277 |
77.4 |
77.6 |
0.264 |
Vinces |
31 278 |
31 735 |
36 722 |
85.2 |
86.4 |
1.439 |
Palenque |
15 977 |
16 215 |
18 242 |
87.6 |
88.9 |
1.471 |
Buena Fe |
9 574 |
9 442 |
13 892 |
68.9 |
68.0 |
-1.398 |
Valencia |
15 265 |
15 215 |
19 357 |
78.9 |
78.6 |
-0.332 |
Mocache |
20 916 |
21 207 |
26 380 |
79.3 |
80.4 |
1.372 |
Portoviejo |
37 511 |
36 237 |
62 368 |
60.1 |
58.1 |
-3.515 |
Bolivar (De Manabi) |
17 646 |
17 387 |
25 458 |
69.3 |
68.3 |
-1.491 |
Chone |
51 870 |
50 623 |
73 374 |
70.7 |
69.0 |
-2.464 |
El Carmen |
20 765 |
20 518 |
28 779 |
72.2 |
71.3 |
-1.202 |
Flavio Alfaro |
16 385 |
16 244 |
23 613 |
69.4 |
68.8 |
-0.868 |
Jipijapa |
30 536 |
30 272 |
36 062 |
84.7 |
83.9 |
-0.873 |
Junin |
11 177 |
11 102 |
18 243 |
61.3 |
60.9 |
-0.668 |
Manta |
3 617 |
3 609 |
4 701 |
76.9 |
76.8 |
-0.214 |
Montecristi |
5 609 |
5 598 |
7 211 |
77.8 |
77.6 |
-0.203 |
Pajan |
30 839 |
30 808 |
36 957 |
83.4 |
83.4 |
-0.099 |
Pichincha |
21 760 |
21 474 |
28 827 |
75.5 |
74.5 |
-1.334 |
Rocafuerte |
13 013 |
12 891 |
17 177 |
75.8 |
75.0 |
-0.952 |
Santa Ana |
30 758 |
30 230 |
42 796 |
71.9 |
70.6 |
-1.745 |
Sucre |
18 546 |
18 392 |
27 685 |
67.0 |
66.4 |
-0.837 |
Tosagua |
17 886 |
17 648 |
24 366 |
73.4 |
72.4 |
-1.350 |
24 De Mayo |
23 902 |
23 969 |
34 026 |
70.2 |
70.4 |
0.279 |
Pedernales |
19 651 |
19 364 |
25 228 |
77.9 |
76.8 |
-1.484 |
Olmedo |
7 402 |
7 365 |
10 166 |
72.8 |
72.4 |
-0.505 |
Puerto Lopez |
5 052 |
5 037 |
5 587 |
90.4 |
90.2 |
-0.293 |
Jama |
7 404 |
7 376 |
10 039 |
73.8 |
73.5 |
-0.380 |
Jaramijo |
239 |
239 |
298 |
80.2 |
80.1 |
-0.088 |
Morona |
10 197 |
10 059 |
12 316 |
82.8 |
81.7 |
-1.373 |
Gualaquiza |
8 254 |
8 039 |
12 518 |
65.9 |
64.2 |
-2.679 |
Limon |
5 995 |
5 949 |
8 813 |
68.0 |
67.5 |
-0.770 |
Palanda |
3 848 |
3 764 |
5 525 |
69.7 |
68.1 |
-2.232 |
Santiago |
6 006 |
5 906 |
8 319 |
72.2 |
71.0 |
-1.685 |
Sucua |
7 231 |
7 033 |
10 996 |
65.8 |
64.0 |
-2.817 |
Huamboya |
2 976 |
2 949 |
3 922 |
75.9 |
75.2 |
-0.916 |
San Juan Bosco |
2 336 |
2 316 |
3 249 |
71.9 |
71.3 |
-0.859 |
Taisha |
5 664 |
5 673 |
6 666 |
85.0 |
85.1 |
0.146 |
Logroño |
3 150 |
3 114 |
3 646 |
86.4 |
85.4 |
-1.143 |
Tena |
20 345 |
20 140 |
25 464 |
79.9 |
79.1 |
-1.019 |
Archidona |
11 194 |
11 027 |
13 650 |
82.0 |
80.8 |
-1.509 |
El Chaco |
3 077 |
2 992 |
4 445 |
69.2 |
67.3 |
-2.863 |
Quijos |
2 329 |
2 251 |
3 847 |
60.5 |
58.5 |
-3.464 |
Carlos Julio Arosemena Tola |
1 437 |
1 428 |
2 037 |
70.5 |
70.1 |
-0.598 |
Pastaza |
10 469 |
10 488 |
15 342 |
68.2 |
68.4 |
0.186 |
Mera |
3 427 |
3 310 |
5 947 |
57.6 |
55.7 |
-3.557 |
Santa Clara |
1 631 |
1 620 |
2 233 |
73.0 |
72.5 |
-0.712 |
Arajuno |
3 180 |
3 183 |
3 594 |
88.5 |
88.6 |
0.085 |
Quito |
6 315 |
3 760 |
169 507 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
-67.958 |
Cayambe |
20 858 |
20 342 |
29 848 |
69.9 |
68.2 |
-2.537 |
Mejia |
19 876 |
18 841 |
37 308 |
53.3 |
50.5 |
-5.499 |
Pedro Moncayo |
7 377 |
7 047 |
15 718 |
46.9 |
44.8 |
-4.686 |
Rumiñahui |
4 312 |
4 208 |
8 620 |
50.0 |
48.8 |
-2.468 |
Sto Domingo De Los Colorados |
35 840 |
33 865 |
68 261 |
52.5 |
49.6 |
-5.831 |
San Miguel De Los Bancos |
10 449 |
10 442 |
16 928 |
61.7 |
61.7 |
-0.062 |
Pedro Vicente Maldonado |
4 669 |
4 511 |
7 681 |
60.8 |
58.7 |
-3.494 |
Puerto Quito |
10 086 |
9 351 |
13 775 |
73.2 |
67.9 |
-7.860 |
Ambato |
60 766 |
59 913 |
103 624 |
58.6 |
57.8 |
-1.423 |
Baños |
4 059 |
3 942 |
5 915 |
68.6 |
66.6 |
-2.961 |
Cevallos |
3 452 |
3 317 |
5 964 |
57.9 |
55.6 |
-4.074 |
Mocha |
4 329 |
4 212 |
6 368 |
68.0 |
66.2 |
-2.776 |
Patate |
5 932 |
5 756 |
10 292 |
57.6 |
55.9 |
-3.072 |
Quero |
11 086 |
10 812 |
15 997 |
69.3 |
67.6 |
-2.531 |
Pelileo |
20 153 |
19 495 |
31 665 |
63.6 |
61.6 |
-3.376 |
Pillaro |
18 096 |
17 724 |
28 223 |
64.1 |
62.8 |
-2.099 |
Tisaleo |
6 599 |
6 452 |
9 165 |
72.0 |
70.4 |
-2.270 |
Zamora |
10 147 |
9 967 |
13 695 |
74.1 |
72.8 |
-1.805 |
Chinchipe |
5 243 |
5 218 |
6 989 |
75.0 |
74.7 |
-0.483 |
Nangaritza |
3 137 |
3 111 |
4 316 |
72.7 |
72.1 |
-0.827 |
Yacuambi |
2 751 |
2 766 |
3 448 |
79.8 |
80.2 |
0.542 |
Yantzaza |
7 775 |
7 669 |
11 856 |
65.6 |
64.7 |
-1.385 |
El Pangui |
4 295 |
4 274 |
6 054 |
70.9 |
70.6 |
-0.509 |
Centinela Del Condor |
4 504 |
4 450 |
6 331 |
71.1 |
70.3 |
-1.199 |
Palanda |
4 513 |
4 483 |
5 430 |
83.1 |
82.6 |
-0.669 |
Lago Agrio |
20 257 |
20 015 |
25 588 |
79.2 |
78.2 |
-1.208 |
Gonzalo Pizarro |
3 290 |
3 206 |
4 472 |
73.6 |
71.7 |
-2.615 |
Putumayo |
4 145 |
4 122 |
4 794 |
86.5 |
86.0 |
-0.548 |
Shushufindi |
14 736 |
14 462 |
18 977 |
77.7 |
76.2 |
-1.899 |
Sucumbios |
2 090 |
2 049 |
2 441 |
85.6 |
84.0 |
-2.004 |
Cascales |
3 719 |
3 644 |
5 014 |
74.2 |
72.7 |
-2.067 |
Cuyabeno |
2 121 |
2 098 |
2 501 |
84.8 |
83.9 |
-1.061 |
Orellana |
9 075 |
9 055 |
11 369 |
79.8 |
79.6 |
-0.223 |
Aguarico |
2 733 |
2 738 |
3 150 |
86.8 |
86.9 |
0.196 |
La Joya De Los Sachas |
12 571 |
12 458 |
16 193 |
77.6 |
76.9 |
-0.911 |
Loreto |
6 915 |
6 897 |
7 811 |
88.5 |
88.3 |
-0.251 |
Total |
2 875 141 |
2 847 776 |
3 975 625 |
72.3 |
71.6 |
-0.977 |
Figure A.2. Percentage of poor people per county, rural sample
Figure A.3. Comparison between probit method and spatial probit at county level, rural sample