Table 6.31. End of processing.
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or Equation |
||||
Prevalence |
Prev |
|
|
Min |
Max |
|
|
Fixed value |
0 |
1 |
|
|
|||
Concentration |
Conc |
MPN/bird |
Cumulative |
|
|
|
|
Table 6.32. Transport from processing plant to retail [not simulated in current model]
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or Equation |
||||
Transport temperature |
T_pr |
degree C |
|
Min |
Max |
|
|
Uniform |
|
|
|
|
|||
Transport time |
t_pr |
hours |
|
Min |
Max |
CF |
|
Correlated uniform |
|
|
-0.75 |
|
|||
Minimum growth temperature |
Tmin_pr |
degree C |
Constant |
10 |
|
|
|
Salt concentration |
Slt_pr |
% |
Constant |
1.9 |
|
|
|
Log growth per hour |
LGR_pr |
log/hr |
= EXP(-6.2251-(0.0114*Slt_pr) +(0.3234*T_pr) +(0.002*(Slt_pr*T_pr)) -(0.0085*(Slt_pr*Slt_pr)) -(0.0045*T_pr*T_pr))) |
||||
Total log growth at retail |
LG_pr |
log |
= IF(T_pr<Tmin_pr,0,t_pr*LGR_pr) |
Table 6.33. Storage at retail
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or Equation |
||||
Retail temperature |
Rtl_Temp |
degree C |
|
Mean |
SD |
Min |
Max |
Truncated Normal |
4 |
2.8 |
-7.2 |
10 |
|||
Retail time |
Rtl_Time |
days |
|
Mean |
Max |
CF |
|
Correlated Uniform |
2 |
7 |
-0.75 |
|
|||
Minimum growth temperature |
MGT |
degree C |
Constant |
10 |
|
|
|
Salt concentration |
NaCl |
% |
Constant |
1.9 |
|
|
|
Log growth per hour |
LogSGR_Rtl |
log/hr |
=EXP(-6.2251 -(0.0114*NaCl) +(0.3234*Rtl_Temp) +(0.002*(NaCl*Rtl_Temp)) -(0.0085*(NaCl*NaCl)) -(0.0045*(Rtl_Temp*Rtl_Temp))) |
||||
Total Log growth at retail |
Rtl_growth |
log |
=IF(Rtl_Temp<MGT.0.Rtl_Time*24*LogSGR_Rtl) |
Table 6.34. Transport from retail to home
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or Equation |
|||||||
Ambient temperature during transport |
Trans_Temp |
degree C |
Pert |
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|||
|
0 |
13 |
24 |
|
||||||
Maximum change in temperature during transport |
TransMax |
degree C |
= Trans_Temp -Rtl_Temp |
|||||||
Potential change in temperature during transport |
Trans_DTemp1 |
degree C |
Truncated Normal |
Mean |
SD |
Min |
Max |
|||
|
3.72 |
2.82 |
0 |
TransMax |
||||||
Change in temperature during transport |
Trans_Dtemp2 |
degree C |
=IF(Trans_Temp -Rtl_Temp<=0,0,Trans_DTemp1 |
|||||||
Chicken temperature after transport |
Post_Trans_Temp |
degree C |
=Rtl_Temp +Trans_DTemp2 |
|||||||
Average transport temperature |
Avg_Trans_ Temp |
degree C |
=Average(Rtl_Temp, Post_Trans_Temp) |
|||||||
Transport time |
Trans_Time |
Minutes |
Correlated Cumulative |
Min |
Max |
CF |
|
|||
|
5 |
240 |
-0.75 |
|
||||||
Log growth per hour |
LogSGR_Trans |
log/hr |
=EXP(-6.2251 -(0.0114*NaCl) +(0.3234*Avg_Trans_Temp) +(0.002*(NaCL*Avg_Trans_Temp (0.0085*(NaCL*NaCL)) -(0.0045*(Avg_Trans_Temp* Avg_Trans_Temp))) |
|||||||
Total log growth during transport |
Trans_growth |
log |
=IF(Avg_Trans_Temp<MGT,0,Trans_Time/60*LogSGR_Trans) |
Table 6.35. Storage at home
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or Equation |
||||
Home storage temperature |
Home_Temp |
degree C |
|
Mean |
SD |
Min |
Max |
Truncated Normal |
4 |
2.65 |
-6.1 |
21.1 |
|||
Home storage time |
Home_Time |
days |
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
CF |
Correlated PERT |
0 |
2 |
5 |
-0.75 |
|||
Log growth per hour |
LogSGR_Home |
log/hr |
=EXP(-6.2251 -(0.0114*NaCL) +(0.3234*Home_Temp) +(0.002*(NaCl*Home_Temp)) -(0.0085*(NaCl*NaCL)) -(0.0045*(Home_Temp*Home_Temp))) |
||||
Total log growth in home |
Home_growth |
log |
+IF(Home_Temp<MGT,0,Home_Time*24*LogSGR_Home) |
||||
Total log growth in storage, transport and home |
Growth |
log |
Rtl_growth + Trans-growth + Home_growth |
Table 6.36. Cross-contamination during preparation
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or equation |
|||
Number of organisms on bird |
Num |
cells |
=IF(Conc=0,0,10^Conc) |
|||
Chickens Þ Hands |
||||||
Transfer from chicken to hands? |
XCH |
- |
=IF(Num=0,0,1) |
|
|
|
Proportion transferred from chicken |
Pop_CH |
proportion |
Pert |
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
|
0 |
0.1 |
0.15 |
|
Number on hands |
Num_H |
cell |
=IF(XCH=0,0,Num*Prop_CH) |
|||
Number left on chicken |
Num_C1 |
cell |
=Num -Num_H |
|||
Hands Þ Other food |
||||||
Probability that hands are not washed |
HW_Prob |
- |
Beta |
alpha |
beta |
|
|
|
|
64 |
46 |
|
|
Hands not washed? |
HW |
- |
=binomial(1,HW_Prob) |
|||
Proportion transferred from hands |
Prop_HF |
- |
Pert |
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
|
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.15 |
|
Number on other foods via hands |
Num_OF1 |
- |
=IF(HW=0,0,Num_H*Prop_HF) |
|||
Chickens Þ Board |
||||||
Transfer from chicken to board |
XCB |
- |
=IF(Num=0,0,1) |
|||
Proportion transferred from chicken to board |
Prop_CB |
proportion |
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
Pert |
0 |
0.1 |
0.15 |
|
Number on board |
Num_B |
cell |
=IF(XCB=0,0,Num*Prop_CB) |
|||
Number left on chicken |
|
cell |
=NUm_C1 -Num_B |
|||
Board Þ Other food |
||||||
Probability that board is used for other foods |
Brd_use_Prob |
- |
Beta |
alpha |
beta |
|
|
|
|
66 |
44 |
|
|
Boards used for other food? |
Brd_use |
- |
=binomial(1,Brd_use_Prob) |
|||
Proportion transferred from board |
Prop_BF |
- |
Pert |
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
|
0.00 |
0.10 |
0.15 |
|
Number on other foods from chicken via board |
Num_OF2 |
- |
=IF(Brd_use=0,0,Num_B*Prop_BF) |
|||
Number ingested via-cross-contamination |
Num_XC |
cell |
=Num_OF1 +Num_OF2 |
|||
Ingestion via cross-contamination? |
- |
- |
+IF(Num_XC=0,0,1) |
Table 6.37. Cooking
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or equation |
|||
Probability of inadequate cooking |
Prob_AC |
- |
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
Pert |
0.05 |
0.10 |
0.15 |
|
Adequately cooked? |
AC |
- |
=binomial(1,1-Prod_AC) |
|
|
|
Proportion o0f cells in areas that permit a chance of survival |
Prop_Prot |
|
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
Pert |
0.10 |
0.16 |
0.20 |
|
Log number of cells with chance of survival |
Num_Prot |
log cells |
=IF(Conc=0,0,LOG10(10^Conc*Prop_Prot)) |
|||
Exposure time at exposure temperature for cells in "protected area" |
Time_Prot |
minutes |
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
Pert |
0.50 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
|
Exposure temperature during cooking in "protected areas" |
Temp_Prot |
degree C |
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
Pert |
60 |
64 |
65 |
|
D-value (at this temperature) |
D_Prot |
minutes |
=10^(-0.139*Temp_Prot +8.58) |
|||
log reduction in "protected area" |
Prto_LR |
log |
=IF(AC=1,"death",Time_Prot/D_Prot) |
Table 6.38. Consumption.
Description |
Variable |
Unit |
Distribution or equation |
|||
Weight of a broiler carcass |
Broiler_WT |
gram |
|
Min |
ML |
Max |
|
|
Pert |
1100 |
1500 |
2500 |
|
Proportion of edible meat |
Prop_edible |
- |
Fixed. 0.3 |
|
|
|
Weight of edible meat |
Edible_WT |
gram |
=Broiler_WT*Prop_Edible |
|||
Serving size |
Serve_size |
gram |
|
Min |
Max |
|
|
|
Cumulative |
19 |
550 |
|
|
Number of servings per broiler |
Num_Serve |
- |
=IF(Edible_WT<Serve_Size,1, ROUND(Edible_WT/Serve_Size,0) |
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