V. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO MEET THE CHALLENGES: FOOD-SECURITY, POVERTY-ALLEVIATION, AND SUSTAINABILITY

Enhancing yield and productivity, bridging yield gaps, and protecting yield gains
Biotechnology: exploiting the gene revolution
Information revolution: knowledge-based development
Managing natural resources: land, water and biodiversity
Environmental concerns
Managing climate change
Natural disasters: minimizing adverse impacts

Science is an essential contributor to solving the triangle of the global problems of hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation (Figure 6). Without sound scientific input of different kinds, the challenges will not be addressed. Science, including the biological sciences and increasingly the social and physical sciences, must be applied to agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, and to those rural, coastal, and urban ecosystems and human systems within which hunger and poverty persist.

Figure 6: The critical triangle to be served by science

Science and technology must address (for crops, livestock, fish, and forests) various issues in order to attain higher productivity and sustainability and thereby help alleviate hunger and poverty:

• Enhancing yield and productivity, bridging yield gaps, and protecting yield gains;

• Exploiting the gene revolution (biotechnology);

• Benefiting from information and communication technology revolution and promoting knowledge-based development;

• Managing natural resources (land, water, and biodiversity);

• Addressing environmental concerns;

• Managing climate change; and

• Minimizing adverse impacts of natural disasters.

Moreover, more empirical and integrated approaches to research, and transparency of information, decision-making, and governance, will be needed (Fresco, 2000).

Enhancing yield and productivity, bridging yield gaps, and protecting yield gains

The Green Revolution (particularly of rice and wheat) was initiated by the development and large-scale adoption of dwarf and semi-dwarf, lodging-resistant, fertilizer- and water-responsive, photoperiod-insensitive, widely-adaptable and disease- and pest-resistant cultivars (the high-yielding varieties - HYVs), together with appropriate crop and resource management. Irrigated areas in many countries benefited greatly, as yields and returns per hectare doubled or tripled. Non-irrigated lands - constituting two-thirds of Asian agricultural lands - generally did not benefit, and their yields still continue to be low and unstable. These non-irrigated ("rainfed") areas are inhabited predominantly by poor people; they are highly risk-prone - notably to aberrant monsoons. Thus, in the interests both of improving household food security and lessening socio-economic inequity, and also of raising national agricultural production, research and technology development must give greater attention to the rainfed areas, while maintaining and further increasing the gains made in irrigated areas.

In order to achieve the yield levels required for satisfying future food demands, a three-pronged approach is called for: first, elevate the yield ceilings, second, bridge the yield gaps at various levels, and third, maintain and protect the high yields already being obtained throughout some countries and in specific zones in other countries. As seen from Table 20, it is encouraging that wheat and rice yields in Asia have continued to increase during the past 40 years; they are projected to increase towards 2030, albeit at a decelerating rate, but nonetheless implying a continued need for developing the technologies wherewith to achieve increased yields. In terms of the crucial statistic of production per day - which quantifies the efficiency of using natural, human, and purchased resources - rice yields increased by about 15 percent between 1970 and 1990 and are expected to increase by 20 percent between 1990 and 2010 (Table 21). As cropping intensity becomes increasingly important, the features of crop duration and high per day productivity become preferred attributes.

Table 20: Yield increases (kg/ha.ann): wheat (South Asia) and rice (Southeast Asia)

Period	Wheat, South Asia	Rice, Southeast Asia
1960s	45	40
1970s	35	45
1980s	55	65
1990-1997	53	35
1997-2030	39	29

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Epoch	Cultivar	Seed-to-seed duration (days)	Yield potential (kg/ha)	Yield potential per day (kg/ha.day)
1970	IR8	150	10 000	67
1990	Various indica	130	10 000	77
2010	New plant type	130	12 000	92

Source: calculated by the author based on various publications and reports

With newly-improved methodologies for systems analysis, and greater access to relevant data, reliable estimates of potential yields in specific agro-ecological regimes are increasingly available. Such estimates will assist in estimating more reliably the gaps between actual and potential yields, and will assist also in charting strategies to bridge yield gaps. For India, Aggarwal, Talukdar and Mall (2000) have analyzed potential yields of rice, wheat, and rice-wheat systems in various districts/states of the Indo-Gangetic Plain using validated crop growth simulation models, spatial weather data, land- use patterns, agronomic-management details, and GIS. Simulated potential grain yield varied between 12.0 and 19.5 ton/ha (Table 22) - higher in the northern compared to the eastern region. Temperature and solar radiation during crop season had high impact, suggesting the need for matching the genetic potential, phenology, and ecological features.

Such models can be used to calculate yield gaps in different regions, and to identify pathways for bridging those gaps. Indeed, in north India and using currently-available cultivars, several farmers already harvest nearly 16 ton/ha from rice-wheat systems - indicating negligible yield gaps. These yields are among the highest in the world, but their large-scale realization will require development of precision agriculture and due concern for economic and environmental costs. Therefore, a systems approach with effective decision support systems is needed.

Table 22: Yield potential: of rice-wheat systems in the Indo-Gangetic plains

State	Average potential yield, t ha-1
	Optimal rice and wheat planting			Late wheat planting
	Rice-wheat	Rice	Wheat	Rice-wheat	Rice	Wheat
Punjab	18.29	10.60	7.69	17.18	10.60	6.58
Haryana	17.87	10.53	7.34	16.87	10.53	6.33
Utar Pradesh	17.48	10.34	7.14	16.46	10.34	6.12
Bihar	16.43	9.73	6.70	15.47	9.73	5.75
West Bengal	13.37	8.07	5.30	13.35	8.07	5.28
Indo-Gangetic plains	16.70	9.88	6.82	15.85	9.88	5.97

Source: Aggarwal, P.K. et al, 2000

Technologies, both input-based and knowledge-based, particularly those impacting efficiency of input use, quality and market price of products (jointly contributing to cost-effectiveness and competitiveness) greatly influence the level and rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP). During the 1990s, the TFP growth rates both in rice and wheat have decelerated in several countries and under certain production regimes. This trend must be reversed, since the required increases in food production (the main pillar of food security in most developing countries) must accrue essentially through increasing yield per ha. Higher TFP growth rate means greater efficiency in the use of various inputs - especially fertilizer and water - to gain comparative advantage in production and in sustainability: a win-win situation.

As TFP increases, the cost of production decreases, and prices also decrease and stabilize. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) forecasts a declining real world food price between 1995 and 2020. While the low grain prices have been extremely helpful in improving poor persons' access to food, the farmers, especially those with marketable surpluses, have suffered and will further suffer. With hindsight, it may be visualized that should economic growth in Asia return to a rapid 8 to 10 percent per annum, there are chances that increased demand for livestock feed, livestock products, and other high-value commodities will precipitate price increases. This will induce system intensification, diversification, and enhanced TFP growth.

FAO analysis of yield gaps in selected Asian countries indicates that 50 to 100 percent transferable yield gaps are not uncommon. In India, for rice (the most important food crop), the gap between the national average and the experimental trials average was more than 3 tons per ha - more than 50 percent of potential yield. State-average yields were on average 52 percent less than national-average experiment yields. Yield gaps differed widely from state to state; lowest (800 to 600 kg/ha) in Tamil Nadu, and highest (4 900 kg/ha) in Rajasthan. Likewise, the state average yields also varied widely. Led by Punjab with an average yield of 5 tons per ha, Tamil Nadu and Haryana, in that order, also recorded yields higher than 4 tons/ha; yields were generally low in Bihar, eastern U.P., Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, and Orissa (Singh, 2001a).

Generally, yield gaps across sub-regions are high for rainfed crops, such as coarse grains and groundnut. These gaps can be bridged by: (i) extending the area under high yielding varieties; (ii) increasing the use of pulses and fertilizers based on soil test results, (iii) timely planting using quality and treated seed, (iv) ensuring desired plant population, (v) strengthening agricultural services, including appropriate processing and timely disposal of surplus production, and (vi) ensuring efficient use of irrigation water.

Inter-country differences in yields are rather high. Rice and wheat yields in 10 percent of the highest-yields developing countries were more than five times higher than those in the lowest-yields countries (Table 23). For wheat this gap is expected to remain until 2030, while for rice the gap between the top and bottom deciles may be somewhat narrowed by 2030; yields in the bottom decile are forecast as 28 percent of yields in the top decile. This suggests that in rice the yield ceilings are being approached faster than in wheat. The average yield levels obtained by the largest producers, accounting for the bulk of global production, are about half of those achieved by top performers. In spite of continuing yield growth in the largest producing countries, their average yield levels will still at 2030 be only 54 percent of yields in the top decile.

There are several agro-ecological and socio-economic causes for the gap in bridging the exploitable yield gaps. With increasing emphasis on precision agriculture, there are greater chances for narrowing the yield gaps. For example Australia, from an already- high average rice yield of 6.8 tons/ha in 1985/89 has pushed it to 8.4 tons/ha by 1995/99, with many individual farmers obtaining 10 to 12 tons/ha. The existing exploitable yield gaps should be seen as an opportunity for future growth that is consistent with agro-ecological, socio-economic, political and technological settings in the major producing countries and regimes. An important question is whether such opportunities exist for Asia's resource-poor small-holder farmers, most of whom live in rainfed and other less-favoured areas.

Table 23: Wheat and rice yields: selected country groups

Country groups	1961/63		1995/97		2030
	tons/ha	as % of top decile	tons/ha	as % of top decile	tons/ha	as % of top decile
Wheat
No. of developing countries included	32		30		35
Top decile	2.14	100	4.83	100	7.11	100
Bottom decile	0.40	19	0.85	18	1.22	17
Decile of largest producers (by area)	0.87	41	2.53	52	3.82	54
All countries included	0.97	45	2.13	44	3.02	42
Major developed country exporters	1.75		3.06		4.10
World	1.18		2.42		3.23
Rice (rough)
No. of developing countries included	44		52		56
Top decile	4.51	100	6.43	100	8.05	100
Bottom decile	0.71	16	1.12	17	2.27	28
Decile of largest producers (by area)	1.82	40	3.45	54	4.38	54
All countries included	1.88	42	3.06	48	4.31	54
World	2.09		3.30		4.54

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, FAO

Notes:

1. In all country groups only countries with over 50 000 harvested ha are included;
2. Countries included in the deciles are not necessarily the same for all years;
3. Average yields are simple averages, not weighted by area.

• Development of more location specific technologies for crop management is required. The sharing, testing and utilization of technology and knowledge across the national boundaries has to be facilitated by regional and international bodies through various networks.

• The Integrated Crop Management approach can expedite the bridging of yield gaps and thus increase production. Location specific packages of technologies should be made available and popularized.

• The yield deceleration, stagnation and decline observed in high-yielding environments must be arrested, first by systematic studies to understand the causes and then by the development of new varieties and crop management practices.

• Technical knowledge is an important factor in determining the adoption of improved crop management practices. New paradigms for technology transfer are required for seed and knowledge based technologies.

• Yield variability must be confronted. The diversion of resources towards risk reduction is a trade off in yield performance. The trade off between high yield and yield stability may be considered.

• The efforts to break the rice yield ceiling (new plant type rice, hybrid rice, and agronomic manipulation) need to be geared-up to attain higher yields.

• Technologies to decrease the cost of production and increase profitability must be considered. Issues in poverty alleviation, social justice and diversification in agriculture are inter-linked.

• The trade globalization provided by GATT/WTO, and geographic comparative advantages can provide major incentives for farmers to bridge the yield gap.

Although not a widespread phenomenon, under certain production regimes there are signs of decline in actual yields. The long term (but atypical) decline in yield potential of rice, recorded under a continuous cropping experiment at IRRI was attributed to a degradation of the soil resource base and/or a decline in the genetic potential of breeding materials. Further analysis of the results, after compensating the highest yields with an amount equal to the annual rate of decline in IR-8 yield, indicated that the highest yields were increasing significantly. This suggested that yield decline was due to a faster rate of degradation of the submerged-soil environment, which may be greater than the rate of growth in the yield potential. However, as indicated in Table 21, part of the supposed yield-potential decline may reflect nothing more sinister than a shortening of rice-crop maturity.

The foregoing findings nonetheless suggest that a long term strategy and a site-specific and knowledge-intensive soil-fertility orientation are needed for the fertilizer-use technology, transfer, adoption and monitoring by the extension advisory system and the farmers themselves. Soil-test based fertilizer application, real-time nitrogen management by leaf chlorophyll meter or leaf colour chart (IRRI) and soil nutrient budgeting, will be the elements of precision agriculture to sustain high yields and lessen the fertilizers-related deceleration of partial factor productivity. This approach calls for a paradigm shift in the technology transfer approach, based on intensive knowledge and higher capacity of extension agents of both public and private sectors. Therefore, the need for improving training and information access to extension workers and farmers through continuous interventions for providing science-based support to farmers can hardly be overemphasized.

The countries of the region are at various levels of development, especially with respect to transfer and use of technology and policy support. Hence no single formula with respect to technology transfer and policy support can be applied across the board. While the yield ceiling must be raised and stabilized, the declining growth rates of TFP should be reversed and the yield gap narrowed. At the same time, the production systems must remain sustainable and environment-friendly. Increasing attention must be paid to the management of soil, water and other production resources. Problems in bridging the yield gap under the limitations of social, biological, cultural, environmental and abiotic constraints need close scrutiny. But, on a positive note, most Chinese farmers, and groups of farmers in Punjab, Haryana, Andhra Pradesh and other states in India and in other countries have been able to achieve yields close to the yield potential for their respective locations. A clear understanding of factors contributing to this phenomenon could lead to the recovery of a significant part of the current yield potential and boost production and farm income.

Biotechnology: exploiting the gene revolution

Progress in molecular biology, genetic engineering, and biotechnology can greatly and most-effectively supplement conventional breeding approaches (preceding section) in enhancing yield, productivity, income, sustainability, and equity. It is fortunate that as we enter the new millenium and seek technological breakthroughs, modern biotechnology with multiple and far reaching potential has become available. It may spearhead agricultural production in the next 30 years at a pace faster than that of the past 30 years (the Green Revolution). Biotechnology interventions are already being used (and have additional potential) to enhance yield levels, increase input-use efficiency, reduce risk (and lessen effects of biotic and abiotic stresses), and enhance nutritional quality - all leading to increased food security, nutritional adequacy, poverty alleviation, environmental protection, and sustainable agriculture. Often referred to as "Gene Revolution or Biorevolution", biotechnology - if judiciously harnessed, blended with traditional and conventional technologies, and supported by policies - can lead to an ever-green revolution synergizing the sustainable pace of growth and development (Swaminathan, 2000a). The uncommon opportunities provided by fast developments in functional genomics, proteomics, DNA microchips and microarrays must be brought to developing countries - otherwise the technology divide will further widen.

But there are also numerous uncertainties and some perceived or potential risks associated with these technologies. There are biosecurity and access and trade-related concerns; often the following questions are raised: How can developing countries harness the accomplishments of biotechnology to promote their own agriculture - particularly in view of the restrictions to access and to the ability to reap the benefits of the new technologies? How can agricultural biotechnology help in the fight against hunger, malnutrition and poverty? Will the needs of developing countries, and those of "orphan" commodities, be taken into account in the research efforts of developed countries? or shall developing countries be left to fend for themselves? Moreover, there is the risk of the assumption that genetic engineering is a "silver bullet" technology that will solve all the problems of agricultural growth and development. There is need for a balanced assessment (by researchers, policy makers, farmers, and consumers) of the potential of biotechnology to raise output, quality, input efficiency, income, and equity - without damaging the environment or society.

GMOs are increasingly being commercialized. Soybeans, maize, canola, and cotton represent almost 100 percent of area grown with GM crops globally (Table 24). Herbicide tolerant (Ht) soybeans alone account for 59 percent of global GM-crop area. Bt cotton (having received the resistance gene from Bacillus thuringiensis) and Ht soybeans have spread extremely fast in the countries of adoption. Between 1996 and 2000, global area of GM crops increased 25-fold, from 1.7 million ha to 44.2 million ha (Table 25). Although seven developed and eight developing countries are reported to grow GM crops, three countries (Table 26) account for 98 percent of the global area: the USA (68 percent), Argentina (23 percent) and Canada (7 percent).

Table 24: GM crop area as a percentage of global area, 2000

Crop		Global area (million ha)	GM area as a share of total area (%)	GM area (million ha)	Crop GM area as share (%) of total GM area
Soybeans		72	36	25.8	59
	Ht Soybeans			25.8	59
Maize		140	7	10.3	23
	Bt maize			6.8	15
	Ht maize			2.1	5
	Bt/Ht maize			1.4	3
Canola		25	11	2.8	6
	Ht canola			2.8	6
Cotton		34	16	5.3	13
	Ht cotton			2.1	5
	Bt cotton			1.5	4
	Bt/Ht cotton			1.7	4
Total		271	100	44.2	100

Source: Clive James, ISAAA Briefs, No. 21, 2000

Table 25: Area of GM crops: global, 1996 to 2000

Year	Number of countries	Million hectare	Area increase (million ha)	Area increase (%)
1996	6	1.7	-	-
1997	-	11.0	9.3	547
1998	9	27.8	16.8	153
1999	12	39.9	12.1	44
2000	13	44.2	4.3	11

Source: Clive James, ISAAA Briefs, No. 21, 2000

Table 26: Area of GM crops: major growing countries, Year 2000

Countries		Million hectare		Percent of global GM crop area
		1999	2000	1999	2000
Developed		32.8	33.5	82	75
	USA	28.7	30.3	72	68
	Canada	4.0	3.0	10	7
	Australia	0.1	0.2	<1	<1
Developing		7.1	10.7	18	24
	Argentina	6.7	10.0	17	23
	China	0.3	0.5	1	1
Total		39.9	44.2	100	100

Source: Clive James, ISAAA Briefs, No. 21, 2000

The second generation of GM crops is expected to offer higher output together with better nutritional (and other) qualities in the produce. Many of the desired traits have been developed, but are yet to reach the market. They comprise a large range of different crops: notably soybeans with higher and better protein content, and crops with modified oils, fats, and starches to improve processing and digestibility (as with high-sterate canola and low-phytate or low-phytic-acid maize. Another promising application is cotton with built-in colours, and colour variants in various flower species. Nutraceutical transgenics are of great importance to undernourished and poor people. "Golden rice", a beta-carotene enriched cultivar (also rich in Fe content), will help combat Vitamin-A deficiency and thereby save millions of persons from blindness. This is particularly significant to the A-P Region - which produces and consumes 90 percent of the world's rice, and is home to the largest number of the world's undernourished and Vitamin-A deficient and anemic children.

Other GM technology-based products include speciality oil, biodegradable thermoplastics, hormones, "plantibodies", vaccines, and pharmaceuticals. GM poplars which demand less energy and produce less waste during processing are already grown in France. In the Asia-Pacific region, poplar plantations are expanding fast and the GM poplar could prove highly cost-effective.

As regards GM animals, although more than 50 transgenes have been inserted into farm animals, their expression and stability is not quite satisfactory. Ethical and consumer biosafety concerns are also intense in case of animals. Ingesting or being injected with certain pharmaceutical products from transgenic animals seems more acceptable to the public. GM fish, especially aquaculture species, have received genes that control the production of growth hormones impacting fish yield, but are yet to be commercialized and face the same biosafety concerns.

Genomics (structural and functional) - which is the determination of the DNA sequence and the locations and functions of all the genes in an organism - has progressed rapidly and has opened many opportunities for genetic engineering. The sequencing of entire genomes of organisms as diverse as bacteria, fungi, plants (Arabidopsis and rice), and animals (human) is leading to the identification of the complete set of genes found in many organisms. With the high degree of syntyny among diverse species, and with many traits being common among species, and with understanding of the function and expression of the sequences, several useful traits (genes) are increasingly known (discovered) that improve crop plants, farm animals, fish, and forest species for human benefit.

Molecular breeding (the molecular-marker-assisted selection and marker-based genetic-distance analysis) is widely used for gene pyramiding. These approaches help to accelerate back-crossing procedures and to predict the performance of progeny. These techniques and the products derived from them do not suffer from the biosafety concerns associated with GMOs, and hence are more likely to become popular.

The way ahead must map out ways to optimize the benefits and minimize the negative effects of biotechnology on a case by case basis (Singh, 2000). The potential of biotechnology should be approached with a balanced perspective by integrating it within the national research technology and development framework and using it as an adjunct to - and not as a substitute for - conventional technologies in solving problems identified through national priority setting mechanisms. Priority setting should also take into account national development policies, private sector interests, market possibilities, potential for adoption by farmers, public perceptions of safety, and consumers' views. Accordingly, various stake holders, public sector, private sector, industries, NGOs and wider segment of civil societies should be involved in the formulation and implementation of national biotechnology policies, strategies, plans and programmes. Pro-poor features of biotechnology should be judiciously harnessed to attack directly the issues of food insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty (Persley, 2000; Pinstrup-Andersen, 2000a).

Technology-inherent as well as technology-transcending risks must be critically and scientifically assessed in a transparent manner. Capacities and measures should be in place to manage the risks, minimize negative effects, and promote the positive impacts (FAO, 2001c). Each country must have the necessary infrastructure, human resources, financial support, and policy for meeting the challenges and capturing the novel opportunities. Competence will particularly be needed in the formulation of country-specific rules and regulations on biosafety- and intellectual-property-rights management regimes, along with commensurate financial, institutional, information and human resources for their effective implementation.

FAO, UNIDO, CGIAR centres and other concerned international organizations should assist developing countries both in the R & D aspects of biotechnology - which are expensive and often beyond the reach of many developing countries - and also in the regulatory processes, particularly biosafety and intellectual property rights. National capacities must be created/strengthened to implement the Cartagena Agreement on biosafety. FAO, with support from Japan, is establishing a regional project and network to assist countries in the A-P Region. The FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (RAP) will implement this project in close collaboration with other relevant and international initiatives. The proposed Asian Biotechnology Network will strive also to create a regional biotech consortium, strengthen public-private sector linkages, and harmonize various regulatory measures and standards suitable to the needs and prospects of countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

Information revolution: knowledge-based development

Strides in the field of informatics, including bio-informatics, have greatly enhanced the potential to ensure that knowledge and information on important technologies and practices are accessible to the masses. Information is now the least expensive input for agricultural and rural development. Instantaneous transfer of knowledge and information to the rural masses could thus ensure knowledge-based development and substitute knowledge for monetary inputs. Rural communities require data and information not on only agriculture but also on associated economic and social aspects as also on new technologies, early warning systems, credit, market, prices, etc.

Information is power and will underpin future progress and prosperity. Efforts must be made to strengthen informatics in agriculture by developing new databases, linking national and international databases and adding value to information to facilitate decision-making at various levels. Development of production models for various agro-ecological regimes to forecast production potential should assume greater importance. Using remote-sensing and GIS technologies, natural and other agricultural resources should be mapped at micro and macro levels and effectively used for land and water use planning as well as agricultural forecasting, market intelligence and e-business, contingency planning and prediction of disease and pest incidences. The bulging youth population will find these developments challenging. With their skills in computer use and information handling, they should be attracted to run agricultural clinics, technology transfer and advisory services, and e-business in agriculture. Knowledge must increasingly substitute monetary inputs, increase efficient use of resources, and reduce cost of production - thus enhancing overall competitiveness of agriculture: a necessity in the trade-liberalized world.

Table 27: Internet users: (percentage of population, by region)

Region	1998	2000
United States	26.3	54.3
High-income OECD (excl. USA)	6.9	28.2
Latin America and the Caribbean	0.8	3.2
East Asia and the Pacific	0.5	2.3
Eastern Europe and CIS	0.8	3.9
Arab States	0.2	0.6
Sub-Saharan Africa	0.1	0.4
South Asia	0.04	0.4
World	2.4	6.7

Source: Human Development Report, UNDP 2001

Yet, as the technology takes a giant leap forward in the region, there is a widening gap between the urban and rural sectors in the gains realized from advanced and emerging technologies. The widening gap is pronounced in the case of rural women since the technology development process generally does not take into account their workload and technology needs. Rural women continue to maximize their productivity with limited understanding of these emerging technologies. The technology transfer professionals are also lagging behind in updating their knowledge on these emerging technologies. Furthermore, effective utilization of these emerging technologies requires a basic level of education which most Asian rural women lack. The know-how gap among rural women as users of technology and emerging technologies could continue to widen. Agricultural- services support provided to rural women should be tailored to match the local realities of women's specific contribution to the food sector. Providing support to women is most often viewed simplistically as assistance to women, but in reality it is interventions to improve the prospects for household food security (Balakrishnan, 2000).

Through initiatives of FAO and APAARI (Asia-Pacific Association of Agricultural Research Institutions), and under the overall umbrella of WAICENT (World Agricultural Information Centre), it is proposed to establish an Asia-Pacific Agricultural Research Information System (APARIS). Its objectives are to: (i) improve communication and exchange of knowledge on agriculture and natural resources, (ii) improve the efficiency of the research/extension/market interface, by opening new technology uptake pathways, and (iii) foster national information capacity building. To achieve these objectives, APARIS will formulate a regional information strategy, create a management information system for R&D institutions, and establish a regional reference centre. It will also provide a forum and services for knowledge sharing for agricultural growth and development.

Managing natural resources: land, water and biodiversity

Land, water, and biodiversity are the base not only of agriculture but of the very life and existence of humankind. Conservation, sustainable use and development of these resources are fundamental to the survival and progress of humanity. Science and technology therefore must play a leading role in arresting and even reversing the ongoing trend of degradation and erosion of these basic resources. Per caput agricultural land availability in the Asia-Pacific region is one-sixth of that in the rest of the world (FAO-RAP 2001) and per caput water availability in the region is also the lowest (3.3 cubic kilometers per year) among regions of the world (against 28.3 cubic kilometers per year in South America) (Ayibotele, 1992). East and Southeast Asia have almost run out of any further land disposal for agricultural expansion. In South Asia, agriculture has encroached into land that should have never come into cultivation. Therefore, the need for most judicious and efficient use of land and water resources through the blend of appropriate technologies, policies and people's power can hardly be over emphasized.

Average cumulative loss of global cropland productivity since the Second World War as a result of human-induced soil degradation is 12.7 percent, and in Asia 12.8 percent (Oldeman, 1998). In certain agro-ecological pockets in some countries, primarily due to wrong technologies, poor management and greed, the resources have degraded almost to the point of no return. These trends must be noted as warning bells against the threat of dwindling of the very livelihood system and even of society and civilization.

The relative impact of soil degradation will vary under different agricultural settings. For instance in Asia, it is projected that by 2020 the economic effects of future soil degradation will be most severe in densely marginal lands followed by that in irrigated lands (Table 28). National policy priorities for managing degraded lands will thus vary widely and must be determined by each country's resource endowment, the structure of agricultural supply, distribution of poverty, and the principal agricultural sources of economic growth (Scherr, 1999). Research and technology development priorities will thus need to be set in consonance with the individual production regimes.

Table 28: Soil degradation in various agricultural pathways

In order of global policy priority	Anticipated impact of soil degradation on				Severity of problem	Dependence on direct policy action to resolve
	Consumption by poor farmers	Agricultural market supply	Economic development	National wealth
1. Densely populated marginal lands	***	**	***	**	***	***
2. Irrigated lands	**	***	***	***	**	**
3. High-quality rainfed lands	**	***	***	***	*	*
4. Urban and peri-urban agricultural lands	*	*	*	*	*	***
5. Extensively managed marginal lands	**	*	*	*	*	*

Source: Scherr, 1999

Notes: To resolve soil degradation problems (see last column), all of these agricultural pathways require a strong agricultural economy, so that farmers have incentives and capacity for good land husbandry. This calls for sensible general agricultural and rural policies, infrastructure investments, and so on. The last column refers to the need for policies and public investments specifically aimed at controlling soil degradation. *** indicate high, ** medium, and * low.

Agriculture is the biggest user of water, accounting for over 70 percent of global water withdrawals. There are pressures for diverting water from agriculture to other sectors. IFPRI has warned that re-allocation of water from agriculture can have a dramatic impact on global food markets. It projects that availability of water for agricultural use in India may be reduced by 21 percent by 2020, resulting in a drop of yields of irrigated crops, especially rice, a price rise, and withdrawal of food from poor masses. Policy reforms are needed from now to avoid negative developments in years to come. These reforms may include the establishment of secure water rights to users, the decentralization and privatization of water management functions to appropriate levels, pricing reforms, markets in tradable property rights, and the introduction of appropriate water-saving technologies. Community land and water care movements should be launched to ensure commitment of the masses towards conservation and judicious use of these resources.

The needs of other sectors for water cannot be ignored. Therefore it is necessary that an integrated water use policy is formulated and judiciously implemented. Several international initiatives on this aspect have been taken in recent years. Developing countries should critically examine these initiatives and develop their country-specific system for judicious and integrated use and management of water. National institutions should be established to assess the various issues, regulatory concerns, water laws and legislations, research and technology development and dissemination, social mobilization and participatory and community involvement, including gender and social equity concerns and economic aspects.

Commonly encountered environmental degradations such as waterlogging, salinization, overextraction, use of fossil aquifers, pollution of surface and ground water, and their associated economic and social costs, can be minimized through appropriate and timely management interventions. Land and water investment decisions also have serious implications for global warming and climate change. The potential for carbon sequestration in soil may be as high as 40 percent of total amount of annual atmospheric increase in CO₂ concentration. Water management practices can greatly impact methane emission from paddy fields - an important point of consideration for Asia-Pacific as about 90 percent of the world's paddies fall in this region.

Land and water are intimately interrelated resources. The extent, quality and productivity of the two resources are highly interdependent. Therefore, while there must be land-specific and water-specific conservation, development and utilization policies, strategies and programmes, there is a need to have a clear policy and approach for synergistic development and effective integration of land and water to enhance overall productivity, sustainability, profitability and reduction of environmental costs.

Agricultural area expansion in land-hungry Asia-Pacific is largely dependent on gross cropped area expansion (increased cropping intensity), which is closely linked with irrigation intensity. It is often noticed that the expansion of irrigation when uncoupled with drainage facilities and efficient on-farm water management have resulted in vast land degradation in the form of waterlogging and salinity, thus negating the gain. This highly costly and negative trend can be and must be discouraged and reversed only by integrating the development of the two resources. Clearly, an interdisciplinary approach involving land and soil specialists, water and irrigation experts, agronomists, engineers, designers, economists, sociologists and even anthropologists, and above all the peoples themselves, working as partners in a participatory mode, is essential. Therefore, an integrated approach of policies and investment is needed to promote land and water protection, rehabilitation, development and quality improvement leading to sustainable agricultural supply, economic growth, rural welfare and long-term national wealth.

Based on the various considerations discussed in this section, the following priority areas for research and technology development in the land and water sector are suggested:

• mapping and utility classification of land and water resources;

• improving the efficiency of land and water use in agriculture;

• policy, institutional, economic and social aspects of land and water management;

• management of watersheds for multiple functions;

• management of aquatic ecosystems, in particular those with boundaries with terrestrial ecosystem;

• recycling of wastewater, conjunctive use of water, improvement of water quality and reduction of water pollution;

• restoration of fertility and structure of degraded lands and prevention of further degradation, bioremediation; and

• integrated soil-water-plant-nutrient management and fertility improvement.

Water accounting methods developed by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) can help planners to improve water productivity by analyzing where water goes, who uses it, and how productive it is per cubic meter, and whether it is available for re-use. Likewise, soil fertility and health indicators are becoming increasingly available and should be used for assessing the resources and investment priorities.

For the third group of natural resources - biodiversity - it may be reiterated that genetic resources are the building blocks of functions and forms of living organisms and will always be needed to produce new genotypes to meet the ever changing needs of humankind. New sciences of biotechnology and bioinformatics, coupled with conventional sciences, should be judiciously used for developing efficient and effective methods of conservation, utilization and exchange of genetic resources. Due to economic and population pressures the resources are eroding fast. Moreover, their availability is getting increasingly restricted due to their propriety protection under several systems. The Cartagena protocol for conservation, biosafety and sharing of genetic resources provides largely accepted and harmonized current practices and standards, and should be accepted by all countries. Along with Plant Breeders Rights, Farmers' Rights should be honoured and implemented for equitable and fair sharing of genetic resources. In this context, the indigenous rights over genetic knowledge and women's sphere of plant knowledge should be recognised under any intellectual property rights regime (Swaminathan, 1998).

The FAO-led International Treaty and Global Plans of Actions on Plant Genetic Resources for Food provide the mechanism for rationally conserving and utilizing genetic resources. Dynamic national research systems should be in place to address the research, development and sharing issues of germplasms. Biotechnology should increasingly be used for characterization, conservation, and utilization of genetic resources. Recognizing that the abundant genetic resources in developing countries could constitute invaluable bargaining chips to procure new technologies and products from industrialized countries, then appropriate documentation, registration and transfer agreements of the resources is a prerequisite for sharing of these resources. On the pattern of UNESCO's Human Genome and Human Rights, FAO should adopt a universal declaration on the "Plant Genome and Farmers' Rights" to provide a balance between the rights of conservers of biodiversity and the researchers, developers, and users of modern biotechnological products. In this gene-rich region there is an urgent need to develop guidelines and procedures for the realization of Farmers' Rights to sustain on-farm in-situ community-based conservation of biodiversity and associated traditional knowledge. A fair, transparent and implementable reward and recognition system should be created for this purpose.

Environmental concerns

For each agro-ecological zone, a suitable agricultural production system must be promoted with adoption of a package of technologies that optimize the productivity and minimize the negative impact on the environment. Depending on the level of intensification, the positive effects of agricultural intensification are in saving encroachment on forest lands (Figure 7), providing more crop cover on land, more carbon sequestration (Table 29) and above all in ensuring food and employment security and in reduction in poverty and hunger. Unscientific and unsustainable adoption of agricultural production methods will intensify environmental degradation, as described earlier.

Figure 7: Land area saved by the green revolution (India)

Source: Based on Production Year Books, FAO

Region	Total carbon (million tons)		Carbon (tons/ha)
	1995-97	2030	1995-97	2030
South Asia	93-186	169-338	0.51-1.03	0.57-1.73
East Asia	176-352	265-529	0.82-1.65	1.18-2.36
Industrial countries	155-310	203-405	0.83-1.66	1.05-2.11
World	590-1181	927-1853	0.61-1.23	0.84-1.69

Source: Agriculture: Towards 2015/30 - Technical interim report, FAO Rome (2000)

The technological package of IPNM should be coupled with effective and efficient pest, soil and water management technologies. Government policy should be geared to promote this synergy between the different technological components by improving research, monitoring, participation, and the extension of effective integrated pest, soil, water and plant nutrients management approaches. New biotechnological inventions for increasing the efficiency of plant water and nutrients use systems should also be encouraged. Appropriate government policies on pricing of inputs and outputs and institutional and infrastructure supports will be essential to maximize the positive effects of technological and non-technological factors towards enhancing and sustaining crop and overall agricultural production. In this context, it may be noted that several Asian countries have explicit policies and programmes on integrated pest management, which are paying rich dividends. Almost two decades of active partnership of FAO and the national programmes, now through the Farmers' Field Schools, have succeeded not only in reducing pest incidences and crop losses but also in lessening the use of hazardous pesticides. In rice, with intensification under the green revolution process new pests and biotypes emerged, necessitating increased applications of pesticides, but with the adoption of IPM, the situation was controlled and the pest incidence returned to the pre-green revolution level (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Rice-pest dynamics: progression

Mindless expansion of industrial livestock production is creating several environmental problems. Creation of buffer areas (zoning) around the intensive livestock production sites will help in reducing the problem of odour, spread of diseases through insect vectors, and pollution of natural waterways. Research to minimize the build up as well as the negative impact of greenhouse gases such as methane should be undertaken and strengthened (Singh and Velayutham, 2001). Policy measures should promote gradual reduction of animal production and processing in areas with high animal concentrations and waste loads and increase of mixed farming system and specialized livestock crop-production systems in rural areas. Removal of subsidies on concentrates would increase the cost of feeds and hence favour grazing-based animal production systems. Several East Asian countries are striving to locate their industrial animal production systems away from urban centres (FAO, 1998b). A success story of private-sector cooperative pig farming in Thailand (Sitanon Jesdapipat, 1998) shows one way for dispersed production systems in the rural areas. In this model, 50 farmers (households) in Nongwha Agricultural Village in Chachoengsao Province, who did not own any land, were in 1977 allotted 4 ha of land per household, on which pig rearing was integrated with mango cultivation. The project was financed by low-interest agricultural loans totaling 25 million Baht (then about US$ 1 million). Each household was guaranteed a minimum monthly income of 2000 Baht. The model, with three working phases, has shown good results.

An effective system of environmental assessment and monitoring must be put in place at various levels of governance and through social groups. Such an agency and exercise should assess periodically the existing systems and their management levels, predict potential negative impacts of proposed development interventions, and monitor the state of environment due to these production systems, their management and development. Usually a pressure-state-response (PSR) framework is adopted in the analysis. Pressure identifies why is it happening - the activities that are causing environmental changes; state seeks what is happening - describing the physical/ecological state of the environment; response explores what is being done/to be done about it - describes the policies and actions that affect the way people use the environment. In combination, they lead to identification of solutions. Such a resource accounting - tracing the flow of natural resources through their life cycle from harvesting/extraction to marketing/disposal and environmental impacts - at national level can be linked to the UN System of National Accounts (SNA).

Appropriate indicators - which quantify and simplify phenomena and help understand complex processes and realities - are used in the PSR analysis. More recently, the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework for reporting on environmental issues was developed (Steinfeld, 2001). These analyses add value in decision making in the sense that the physical indicators of change are linked with socio-economic indicators of pressure and political/institutional indicators of response. Suitably trained manpower and institutional support will be needed to fully deploy these frameworks and monitoring devices. The pressures like "pollutor pays" and "beneficiary compensates" should increasingly be mounted under globalization and international trade agreements. Asian countries must be equipped to handle these provisions and restrictions as the region intensifies crop and livestock productivity and improves its share and competitiveness in the international market (Singh and Velayutham, 2001).

Managing climate change

Climate change is a reality and it is now widely accepted that the change is currently taking place at a much faster pace than in the past. Recent global meetings on climate change have noted that about 80 years from now the average temperature will have increased by 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius, and average on-land precipitation by 2 to 4 percent. The planet will divide into clear winners and losers. The winners will mostly be the developed countries and the losers will mostly be the developing countries. The studies have further revealed that India, with about one-sixth of the world population, will be the biggest loser from global warming, losing tens of millions of tons from its potential cereal harvest each year because of climate change. An Indian study has shown that a 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature in North India would reduce the duration of the wheat crop by one week, thereby reducing yield by 500 to 600 kg/ha (Personal communication P.K. Aggarwal, IARI).

It is cruelly ironic that the poor in the developing countries who are least to blame for the global warming are the ones to suffer most. About 80 percent of the greenhouse gases contributing to global warming are emitted by developed countries. In this context, the stand currently taken by USA on the implementation of Kyoto Protocol and its overall energy policy in relation to global warming needs to be re-examined by US scientists and policy makers together. FAO and the entire United Nation system must influence policy decisions and the role of science for obviating and eliminating the catastrophic impacts of climate change. Anticipatory research, including conservation, characterization and utilization of topical genetic resources and use of biotechnology and other cutting-edge sciences, to meet the challenges of global warming and climate change must be initiated now. The countries likely to be negatively impacted by climate change should collaborate not only in strengthening their relevant research and technology development, but also in their negotiations at various international forums.

Natural disasters: minimizing adverse impacts

The A-P Region is the most disaster-prone region in the world - experiencing nearly one half of the reported disasters in the 1990s. Eighty percent of the 130 million people world-wide who since 1975 were killed, injured, rendered homeless, or otherwise affected by catastrophes were Asians.

The frequency of disasters is high and the impact intense because of climatic, geographic and natural resource diversity, high population density and poverty. Increasingly, environmental degradation, climate change and settlement of marginal lands are making people vulnerable to natural hazards. The A-P Region is subject to almost every conceivable natural hazard. Additionally, it is increasingly susceptible also to man-made disasters such as war, civil strife, economic crisis and plunder of natural resources. For both natural and man-made catastrophes, national capacities in GIS, weather forecasting, connectivity with regional and world weather data and forecast must be in place for appropriate preparedness.

Devastation is disproportionately high in the agricultural sector. Apart from human death and injury, there is damage and loss to standing crops, livestock, food stocks, tools, equipment, buildings, irrigation and drainage systems, transportation networks and other capital. There is underemployment and unemployment leading to destitution and undernutrition. Emigration to cities follows. The ill effects are transmitted from farms to rural communities and eventually to cities, as many vulnerable economies are agriculture based. For many low-income food-deficit countries, years of painstaking economic development can be erased by one or more natural disasters. Some vulnerable peoples never recover: there are many A-P examples of such disaster-impoverished communities and countries.

It is hard to define cost-effective technologies, policies and programmes to deal with disasters because governments lack timely, comprehensive and accurate data on natural and man-made hazards. Until governments know (for individual communities) who are the vulnerable peoples, where they are located, and why, then measures and remedial resources will remain superficial, fragmented and thinly spread. The problem is further compounded by the fact that available technologies to combat storm, drought, flood and other natural hazard induced agricultural disasters are not good enough. More research and development in climate prediction, agro-meteorology, natural resource management, engineering works and farming systems is needed to mitigate repeated and prolonged natural hazards.

As the poor face a wide range of variable and unpredictable risks, their ability to invest in technologies is dynamic. Science should provide a diversity of options/choices that suit a wide range of investment profiles. Farmers will then be able to choose the most suitable options according to their particular circumstances, including contingency farming practices to mitigate adverse effects of natural and man-made disasters.

Governments and communities are finding it increasingly difficult to manage preventive, preparedness, relief and recovery measures due to paucity of resources. This is because of the rising frequency and scale of disasters, insufficient resources and rising costs of reaching vulnerable areas, and sometimes due to poor links and balance between public and private services. Priority must be to save those who are on the edge.

Further, there is the neglect of nutritional needs of the victims on a long-term basis. Food relief is generally provided to reduce hunger and starvation in the immediate post-disaster period. But, undernourishment and malnutrition prevail long after the disasters occurred. Much more could therefore be achieved if the victims were regularly surveyed and assisted to acquire adequate and balanced diets. In this context the role of women is particularly important - both for themselves and for their children.

The scale of the problem, nature of shortcomings, and required actions strongly suggest that governments must make disaster early warning, prevention, preparedness and management a component of the agricultural development process. These activities must not be fragmented, discontinuous, patchy and thinly spread as they are now. In short, governments must mainstream disaster management. FAO and other concerned international organizations should assist member nations in developing strategies and programmes to mainstream disaster management within the framework of national and regional self-reliance. Community involvement in building local seed, grain, and drinking-water banks, micro-credits and micro-irrigation will greatly mitigate the hardships caused by disasters.