FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

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MALI


Area: 1 220 000 sq.km
Climate: From north to south: arid, semi-arid and tropical wet-dry; one rainy season: May-October
Population: 9.25 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 250 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; land-locked sahelian country
Logistics: Roads inadequate during rainy season; river transport important; rail link to Dakar (Senegal)
Major foodcrops: Millet, sorghum, rice, maize
Marketing year: November/October; Lean season: July-September
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 75 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Overall crop prospects are mostly favourable. Following generally widespread and regular rains since the beginning of the rainy season, except in late July and early August in the west and the centre, growing conditions have been generally favourable. In September, precipitation was often above normal during the first and the third dekad. Soil moisture reserves are adequate. Coarse grains are being harvested. Rice is developing satisfactorily in the "Office du Niger" and an above average or even record crop is anticipated reflecting larger planted areas following high levels reached by the Niger river. Pastures are abundant and water points are well replenished.

Grain-eating birds attacks have been reported in the rice-producing areas. Grasshopper infestations are also reported on millet and sorghum in the Sahelian zone. Solitarious immature and mature Desert Locusts were present during the second half of October throughout the Adrar des Iforas and western Tamesna. Most were concentrated in the few wadis that remained green. An isolated hopper was seen at Tidjaladine indicating that breeding had occurred in the area. Although numbers are expected to remain low, adults may become concentrated in the few areas that remain green.

A joint FAO/CILSS Crop Assessment Mission visited Mali from 25 October to 3 November. Composed of experts or consultants from FAO/GIEWS and the DIAPER Programme of CILSS, this Mission worked closely with the national services involved in the monitoring of rainy season (meteorology, hydrology, plant protection, agricultural statistics) as well as the USAID/FEWS. The Mission estimated, on the basis of the national production survey, aggregate output of cereals at 2 384 000 tons, which is 7 percent above the previous year’s harvest and 9 percent above average of the last five years. Production increased for all types of cereals but more markedly for maize.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

3

439

1 808

2 250

Normal Imports

-

30

-

30

of which: Structural food aid

15

2

-

17

1996/97 Domestic Availability

8

430

1 718

2 156

1996 Production (rice in paddy terms)

3

632

1 588

2 223

1996 Production (rice in milled terms)

3

430

1 588

2 021

Possible stock drawdown

5

-

130

135

1996/97 Utilization

58

450

1 748

2 256

Food Use

57

314

1 484

1 855

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

(15)

(15)

Non-food use

1

76

244

321

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

20

20

Possible stock build up

-

60

-

60

1996/97 Import Requirement

50

20

30

100

Anticipated commercial imports

35

20

10

65

Food aid needs

15

-

20

35

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

2

-

10

12

of which: Delivered

2

-

10

12

Donor-financed purchases

-

-

7

7

of which: for local use

-

-

6

6

for export

-

-

1

1

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

7

34

160

201

Indexes





1996 production as % of normal:




99

1996/97 import requirement as % of normal:




333

1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal:




206


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