FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - November 1997:

NIGERIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Rains started in mid March in the south, remained abundant and widespread, moving northwards in April and continued copious and above average in May, June. Below average rainfall was recorded in the south and the centre during July and early August but might not have strongly affected crop production. Satellite imagery shows about average vegetation in the south and above average in the north, and the global crop prospects are good. In the south and the centre, the second maize crop is growing satisfactorily while irrigated rices is being harvested. African migratory locusts infestations are likely to develop in north-western Nigeria, from recently reported swarms in southern Chad, and could damage the millet and sorghum crops that are currently harvested.

Food supply is still constrained by high levels of post-harvest losses and high distribution costs. Shortages of fertilizers, improved seeds and pesticides were reported during the whole growing season. As a result, many farmers have switched from rice and maize to millet, sorghum and groundnuts, which are less fertilizer dependent. A decrease in rice and maize production is expected for 1997, but might be compensated by a higher output of millet and sorghum depending on the development of the locust infestation. This is likely to have an impact in the neighbouring countries, notably Niger and Chad, which usually import coarse grains from Nigeria to cover their needs. It might also increase the need for rice imports. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is estimated at 1 250 000 tons, including 900 000 tons of wheat and 250 000 tons of rice.