FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - August 1997

GUINEA


Area: 246 000 sq.km
Climate: Tropical wet-dry; one rainy season: March/June to October/November
Population: 6.9 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 550 (1995)
Specific characteristics of the country: Low-income food-deficit country; mountainous coastal country
Logistics: Ports and roads inadequate
Major foodcrops: Rice, roots and tubers, coarse grains
Marketing year: January/December; Lean season: July-September
Share of cereals in total calorie intake: 52 percent


CURRENT SITUATION

Rains started in late March in the extreme south-east, increased in the south in April and became abundant over the entire country in May and June. Cumulative precipitation as of the end of June is above average. The first maize crop, millet and sorghum are growing satisfactorily and are at emerging/tillering stage in the centre. Sorghum is still being planted in the north. Planting of rice is completed, except for swamp and low-lying areas rice in the south. As a result of below normal, though widespread rainfall in 1996, and shortage of fertilizers, aggregate cereal output in 1996 is estimated at 890 000 tons, which is about average.

In March, the price of local rice increased but was still lower than last year in the same period. Markets were well supplied with both local and imported rice. Quantities of rice imported during the first quarter of the year are much lower compared to last year. In April, the government imposed a ban on potato imports as local potatoes are currently being harvested and prices were decreasing substantially due to large amounts of imported potatoes on the markets. The cereal import requirement for 1997 is anticipated to be 375 000 tons. In June, it was estimated that about 545 000 Liberian and Sierra Leonean refugees were in Guinea, most of whom are assisted with emergency food aid. With the ongoing peace process in Liberia, refugees are likely to begin returning while about 8 000 refugees from Sierra Leone have arrived, following civil disturbances. The caseload of refugees targeted for food aid distribution from January 1997 amounted to 293 000 Liberians and 173 000 Sierra-Leoneans. Following recent upheaval in Sierra Leone and subsequent population movements, the number of Sierra Leonean refugees will need to be reviewed.



CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1997 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)


Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production

-

720

200

920

Normal Imports

-

110

260

370

of which: Structural food aid

1

32

2

35

1997 Domestic Availability

5

446

227

678

1996 Production (rice in paddy terms)

-

668

222

890

1996 Production (rice in milled terms)

-

446

222

668

Possible stock drawdown

5

-

5

10

1997 Utilization

115

706

232

1 053

Food Use

112

616

192

920

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

-

-

Non-food use

3

90

40

133

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

-

-

Possible stock build up

-

-

-

-

1997 Import Requirement

110

260

5

375

Anticipated commercial imports

105

250

-

355

Food aid needs

5

10

5

20

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

-

5

-

5

of which: Delivered

-

3

-

3

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

16

89

28

133

Indexes





1996 production as % of normal:




97

1997 import requirement as % of normal:




101

1997 food aid requirement as % of normal:




57

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