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Current global market situation and medium term outlook









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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    Meat Market Review - Overview of global meat market developments in 2018
    mrt/19
    2019
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    Global meat output in 2018 is estimated at 336.4 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2017, principally originated in the United States, the EU, and the Russian Federation, but partially offset by a decline in China and stagnation in Brazil, two of the world’s largest meat producers. Meat output volumes expanded in all major regions in the world, especially in Europe and North America. Productivity improvements, as countries introduced better management practices, more streamlined production systems and new technology, were largely behind the output expansion. Moreover, droughts in some parts of the world, including in the United States in the first half of the year, in the EU during the summer months, and Australia almost throughout the year, led to higher animal slaughter. Across the various meat sub-sectors, bovine meat output (refer to meat derived from ruminant mammals including cows, ox and buffalos) registered the highest expansion (+2.1 percent), followed by poultry meat (+1.3 percent), but remained stable for ovine meat (meat derived from sheep and goats) (+0.6 percent) and pigmeat (+0.6 percent). World meat exports in 2018 is estimated at 33.8 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent from 2017, principally driven by increased shipments from the United States, Australia, Argentina and the EU, but retreated in India, China and Brazil. China, the world’s largest meat importer, increased its purchases significantly, as consumer demand for meat continued to rise amid a contraction in pigmeat output, partly due to the onset of the African swine fever. Elsewhere, imports increased in the Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam, while the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and the United States have cut back on imports. Across meat categories, world meat exports expanded at faster rates for ovine (+9.4 percent) and bovine (+6.1 percent) than for pigmeat (+1.6 percent) and poultry (+1.0 percent). The annual average value of world meat prices in 2018, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, was 2.2 percent lower than in 2017, reflecting the declines in prices of pig (-8.1 percent) and poultry (-4.8 percent) meats and stability of bovine meat prices (+0.2 percent). Ovine meat prices increased by as much as 17 percent, but did not affect the average index value significantly because of its low weightage in the index. The spread of the African Swine Fever (ASF) and associated import restrictions weighed on international pigmeat price quotations while generally sluggish poultry import demand caused its prices to weaken. Abundant export supplies and robust demand from across the world characterized the global bovine market, keeping its prices stable. Price strength of ovine meat during the whole year was a result of strong import demand, combined with limited supplies from Oceania.
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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    Dairy Market Review - Overview of global dairy market developments in 2018
    mrt/19
    2019
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    Global milk output in 2018 is estimated at 842 million tonnes, an increase of 2.2 percent from 2017, driven by production expansions in India, Turkey, the EU, Pakistan, the United States and Argentina, but partially offset by declines in China and Ukraine, among few others. This increase has come about as a result of higher dairy herd numbers along with improvements to milk collection processes (India and Pakistan), efficiency improvements in integrated dairy production systems (Turkey), increased yield per cow (the EU and the United States) and enhanced utilization of idle capacity and higher demand from the processing sector and imports (Argentina). Milk output declines largely stemmed from industrial restructuring processes and downscaling of small-scale farms (China) and reduced producer margins and farm gate prices (Ukraine). Across the regions, Asia registered the highest milk output expansion by volume in 2018, followed Europe, North America. Milk output expanded in all other regions too, but by smaller volumes. World exports of dairy products expanded to 75 million tonnes (in milk equivalents), an increase of 2.1 million tonnes, or 2.9 percent from 2017, principally coming from the United States and Argentina, but also India, Uruguay, and Mexico. By contrast, exports declined in a number of countries, in particular in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Across the main dairy products, in 2018, SMP registered the highest export expansion (+8.6 percent), followed by butter (+7.5 percent), WMP (+1.7 percent) and cheese (+0.8 percent). As for milk powders, consisting of SMP and WMP, export availabilities were abundant from almost all major international suppliers. Large stocks of SMP, held by the EU, the United States and India, also contributed to elevate global supply availabilities. EU SMP stocks, given their age, were mostly considered less suitable for human consumption. In addition to immediate human consumption in the form of milk, powders were also in high demand from food processors and manufacturers, boosting import demand from some countries such as Mexico. Although butter exports for the whole year expanded, supplies were relatively limited in the first six months. Global supplies rose only when supplies from Oceania began entering the global markets, starting from about July, when its milk production season was in full swing. Butter import demand nevertheless was robust, especially from Asia, as urbanization, rising income and changing food habits made butter demand less price sensitive. Cheese exports expanded at a slower pace in 2018, compared to that of 2017, reflecting import cutbacks of many importers, including Australia and the United States. A robust market, however, existed for high value cheese products, boosted by rising consumer demand for specialized cheese varieties, also with geographic labelling. International dairy prices in 2018, measured by the FAO Dairy Price Index, declined by 4.6 percent compared to that of 2017, reflecting declines in prices of all dairy products represented in the Index, with the highest fall registered for SMP (-5.6 percent), followed by cheese (-5.2 percent), butter (- 4.4 percent) and WMP (-2.9 percent). The global supply-demand balances of each commodity, induced by factors discussed above, are compatible with these price movements. An additional factor that is noteworthy of mentioning on international dairy prices was the significant differentials that existed between the EU and Oceania on butter, WMP and SMP prices. Prices for butter and WMP in the EU hovered at higher levels than for Oceania, and that prices of SMP from Oceania were higher than those from the EU. Market segmentation, associated consumer preferences, reflecting geographical proximity to markets, was thought to be behind the observed price differentials across the two regions.
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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    Dairy Market Review - April 2018 2018
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    World milk output reached 811 million tonnes in 2017, 1.4 percent higher than in 2016. Across geographic regions, milk output expanded in Asia, the Americas and Europe; stagnated in Africa; and declined in Oceania. World dairy exports in 2017 reached 71.6 million tonnes, 1.3 percent higher than in 2016. Milk exports from Africa, Central America, Europe and North America increased, but those from Asia, Oceania and South America declined. A key factor that influenced this expansion was the continued rise in import demand from China, United Arab Emirates, Japan, Mexico and Australia that counterbalanced import contractions from elsewhere, especially Egypt, Brazil, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Increased supplies from the EU, Mexico, Canada and the United States were adequate to cover export shortfalls from some leading exporters, including New Zealand, Argentina, Australia, Belarus, and Uruguay. The average dairy export price in 2017 was up 31 percent from 2016. In the first half of the year, prices remained stable as ample export supplies from the Northern Hemisphere were sufficient to meet import demand. But from May to September 2017 dairy prices strengthened, driven by strong import demand, especially from Asia, reflecting tighter exportable supplies from Oceania, South America and Europe. From September onwards, dairy prices started to weaken as export supplies increased from almost all major producing countries.

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