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Dairy Market Review: Price and policy update. December 2019









​FAO. 2019. Global Dairy Market: Price and policy update, December, 2019. Rome


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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    Dairy Market Review - Overview of global dairy market developments in 2018
    mrt/19
    2019
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    Global milk output in 2018 is estimated at 842 million tonnes, an increase of 2.2 percent from 2017, driven by production expansions in India, Turkey, the EU, Pakistan, the United States and Argentina, but partially offset by declines in China and Ukraine, among few others. This increase has come about as a result of higher dairy herd numbers along with improvements to milk collection processes (India and Pakistan), efficiency improvements in integrated dairy production systems (Turkey), increased yield per cow (the EU and the United States) and enhanced utilization of idle capacity and higher demand from the processing sector and imports (Argentina). Milk output declines largely stemmed from industrial restructuring processes and downscaling of small-scale farms (China) and reduced producer margins and farm gate prices (Ukraine). Across the regions, Asia registered the highest milk output expansion by volume in 2018, followed Europe, North America. Milk output expanded in all other regions too, but by smaller volumes. World exports of dairy products expanded to 75 million tonnes (in milk equivalents), an increase of 2.1 million tonnes, or 2.9 percent from 2017, principally coming from the United States and Argentina, but also India, Uruguay, and Mexico. By contrast, exports declined in a number of countries, in particular in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Across the main dairy products, in 2018, SMP registered the highest export expansion (+8.6 percent), followed by butter (+7.5 percent), WMP (+1.7 percent) and cheese (+0.8 percent). As for milk powders, consisting of SMP and WMP, export availabilities were abundant from almost all major international suppliers. Large stocks of SMP, held by the EU, the United States and India, also contributed to elevate global supply availabilities. EU SMP stocks, given their age, were mostly considered less suitable for human consumption. In addition to immediate human consumption in the form of milk, powders were also in high demand from food processors and manufacturers, boosting import demand from some countries such as Mexico. Although butter exports for the whole year expanded, supplies were relatively limited in the first six months. Global supplies rose only when supplies from Oceania began entering the global markets, starting from about July, when its milk production season was in full swing. Butter import demand nevertheless was robust, especially from Asia, as urbanization, rising income and changing food habits made butter demand less price sensitive. Cheese exports expanded at a slower pace in 2018, compared to that of 2017, reflecting import cutbacks of many importers, including Australia and the United States. A robust market, however, existed for high value cheese products, boosted by rising consumer demand for specialized cheese varieties, also with geographic labelling. International dairy prices in 2018, measured by the FAO Dairy Price Index, declined by 4.6 percent compared to that of 2017, reflecting declines in prices of all dairy products represented in the Index, with the highest fall registered for SMP (-5.6 percent), followed by cheese (-5.2 percent), butter (- 4.4 percent) and WMP (-2.9 percent). The global supply-demand balances of each commodity, induced by factors discussed above, are compatible with these price movements. An additional factor that is noteworthy of mentioning on international dairy prices was the significant differentials that existed between the EU and Oceania on butter, WMP and SMP prices. Prices for butter and WMP in the EU hovered at higher levels than for Oceania, and that prices of SMP from Oceania were higher than those from the EU. Market segmentation, associated consumer preferences, reflecting geographical proximity to markets, was thought to be behind the observed price differentials across the two regions.
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    Dairy market review - Price and policy update, July 2021 2021
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    International dairy prices, measured by the FAO Dairy Price Index, fell slightly in June, ending 12-month of uninterrupted increases. At 119.9 points in June, the global dairy price index stood at 22 percent above its level one year ago. International quotations for all dairy products represented in the index fell in June, with butter registering the highest decline, underpinned by a faster decline in global import demand and a slight increase in inventories, especially in Europe. Whole milk powder prices declined on reduced purchases by China and lower demand for spot supplies, while global export availabilities remained adequate to meet existing orders. Quotations for cheese and skim milk powder weakened slightly also on reduced global import demand amid somewhat higher export supplies from major producing regions.
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    Journal, magazine, bulletin
    Dairy market review: Price and policy update - July 2020 2020
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    International dairy prices in June, measured by the FAO Dairy Price Index, were down by 5.7 points (5.4 percent) from January 2020, with skim milk powder (SMP) registering the sharpest fall (-15.3 percent), followed by butter (11.8 percent), whole milk powder (WMP) (-11.2 percent), while cheese prices rose (+1.6 percent). In the key dairy importing countries, COVID-19-related lockdowns and social distancing measures reduced food-service sales in the first months of the year, especially of fresh milk and milk products, which were only partly offset by increased sales of dairy products with a longer shelf-life, such as UHT milk, packaged butter and cheese. As in other economic crises, the deterioration of income prospects weighed disproportionately on consumer demand for high-value food commodities, such as dairy products. Depressed retail milk sales resulted in larger volumes of milk being processed in industrial plants, where such facilities were operational. In dairy exporting countries, milk was mostly diverted to drying dairy plants, boosting production, and availability of milk powders. Overall, the downgrading of economic prospects and market disruptions caused by the pandemic are anticipated to result in a fall in global dairy imports in 2020, which, amid adequate availabilities in key exporting countries, could keep international prices under pressure.

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