FAO Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin

Abstract

During the period July to September 2019, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (e.g. intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change (e.g. droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -ENSO, changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (e.g. cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.

In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (July to September 2019), FAO estimates that, globally, 41 countries (31 in Africa, nine in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.

Main Food Chain Threats: Thirty three plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period July to September 2019. A total of 284 forecasts were conducted in 122 countries.