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食品价格监测与分析 (FPMA) 简报 #4 CH, 2020年5月12日

食品价格趋势月度报告













See full version of Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin #4, 12 May 2020 (in English only)



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    3月,小麦和玉米的平均出口价格低于2月。尽管出于对2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)疫情的担忧,小麦和玉米的贸易活动活跃,但全球的大量供应和良好的生产前景继续主导市场情绪,导致平均价格下跌。相比之下,新冠肺炎疫情引发的担忧和越南暂停签署新出口合同的消息,造成国际稻米价格持续上涨。 3月下半月,新冠疫情导致的粮食需求激增以及供应链冲击,推动了一些国家食品价格的上涨。为了应对定价过高并确保疫情期间的国内供应,各国政府正在采取一系列政策干预措施。 在墨西哥和南非,受到新冠疫情将引发经济衰退这一预期的主要影响,3月份货币大幅贬值,白玉米价格随之显著上涨。 在苏丹,由于外汇严重短缺以及官方汇率和平行汇率间差距扩大,货币进一步贬值,该国主粮价格3月份出现飞涨,创下历史最高记录。燃料短缺、2019年谷物产量低于平均水平,以及高昂的生产和运输成本,进一步加剧了价格的上行压力。
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    由于收割工作逐步推进且全球供应前景良好,6月小麦出口价格继续下跌。国际稻米价格自年初以来首次下降,主要原因是贸易活动放缓。相比之下,因全球需求走强,以及美国气候条件不利,玉米价格在连续下跌数月后出现上扬。 在东非,随着新收成的上市和2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19,以下简称“新冠”)疫情封锁措施的放宽,市场供应状况出现改善,6月粗粮价格下跌。相比之下,苏丹的粗粮价格继续攀升,原因是国内供应紧张、货币疲软,以及新冠疫情遏制措施导致供应链受到冲击。 在中美洲,由于季节性上行压力,加之对新冠疫情的担忧推高国内外需求,6月豆类价格继续大幅上扬,一些国家的价格达到历史新高。
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    由于全球需求持续旺盛,11月国际小麦和主要粗粮的价格进一步上涨。然而,稻米价格维持稳定,原因是东南亚部分出口国供应紧张和货币波动,抵消了其他主要产地需求有限和收成压力带来的影响。 在东非,11月,苏丹和南苏丹的粗粮价格进一步上涨,两国国内若干市场的价格创下历史最高纪录,原因是市场供应不足,以及宏观经济形势艰难,包括国家货币持续贬值。 在西非,随着2020年收成进入市场,尼日利亚粗粮价格进一步下跌。然而,由于供应链遭遇瓶颈,加之宏观经济形势整体艰难,目前价格远高于去年同期水平,东北部尤甚,原因是持续的冲突加剧了经济挑战。 在中美洲,玉米和豆类价格上涨,尤其是遭受伊塔和艾奥塔飓风侵袭的危地马拉、洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜。

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