Impacts of climate change on the production and trade of seafood

Abstract

Global seafood production has been increasing steadily in recent decades, at a rate faster that global population growth. Seafood is the most important source of animal protein in several regions, being of particular importance in several African countries. Fish and fisheries products are provided from two main modes of production – fisheries and aquaculture. While fisheries landings has been stagnant since the late 1980s, aquaculture is the world´s fastest growing food production technology. The impact of climate change on global seafood production remains uncertain on aggregate. Recent evidence suggests that global capture fisheries production will remain relatively unchanged, but with significant variation across regions as various species change migration patterns due to direct and indirect effects of climate change. In addition to impacting food security and local economies, this may also cause jurisdictional challenges. Aquaculture production will continue to be the main driver of growth in the seafood sector, and climate change is likely to impact areas where production takes place.

If it turns out to be correct that the main impact of climate change on seafood production will be on where production takes place, trade has the potential to serve as an adaptive tool. Places that experience a reduction in production can compensate through imports. Seafood is also better placed than most other foods in terms of capacity to respond to climate change through increased international trade since it is already one of the most traded animal protein products worldwide. Several challenges remain, however, and countries whose fisheries and aquaculture are most vulnerable to climate change are also the poorest with the most limited capacity to adapt.