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NewsletterRice Market Monitor - June 2005 2005According to the FAO second forecast, global paddy production in the current 2005 season could increase by 2.7 percent to 621 million tonnes, or 16 million tonnes more than in 2004, as most countries are expected to react to the rise in prices witnessed in 2004 by expanding cultivation. The current prospects are almost 7 million tonnes above the preceding FAO forecast, reflecting improved expectations for production in Brazil, India, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Thailand. Much of the expansion foreseen in 2005 is likely to be concentrated in Asia, with mainland China forecast to boost production by 6 million tonnes compared to last year, with large additions also coming from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. By contrast, the outlook is less buoyant for Indonesia, Japan and Viet Nam, which might experience a contraction. In recent months, the news that China had started cultivating genetically modified (GM) rice on a commercial basis gained the headlines. H owever, it is not clear whether the Government has formally authorized the release on the market of the GM rice seeds, which would set an important precedent, especially in relation with a food crop.
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Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 2 June 2016 2016Global cereal production prospects continue to improve although latest forecasts indicate that world cereal output in 2016 would still fall slightly short of the projected demand in 2016/17. COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that 37 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts, acutely undermining agricultural capacities and drought‑induced production declines, frequently linked to the now dissipating El Niño, are the main causes stressing food security in 2016. In AFRICA: The early aggregate outlook for the 2016 cereal crops points to a fall in production, mostly resulting from expected drought-reduced harvests in North and Southern Africa. In Central and West Africa, 2016 early crop prospects are uncertain, largely due to unfavourable weather and conflicts, while the overall outlook improved in East Africa, on account of recent favourable rains that eliminated early seasonal dryness. In ASIA: The outlook fo r 2016 points to a production recovery in the Far East, with a steep increase foreseen in India expected to more than offset a cut in China’s output. By contrast, cereal outputs are likely to fall in the Asian CIS subregion and in the Near East, where several countries continue to be severely affected by conflicts. In LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Aggregate cereal production in 2016 is forecast to decline on expectations of reduced crops in the key-producing countries of Brazil and Mexico, bu t still remain above average, mostly owing to a larger output anticipated in Argentina. Production recoveries from the 2015 drought‑reduced levels are foreseen in Central America and the Caribbean countries.
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NewsletterRice Market Monitor - November 2003 2003Despite a recent deterioration of prospects for global paddy production this season, a recovery from the 2002 low levels continues to be foreseen, with 2003 global paddy production now forecast to grow by 3 percent to 591 million tonnes. Much of the year-to-year increase would be on account of India, where production is forecast to rise by 18 percent. Sizeable production gains are anticipated in several other Asian countries, in particular Bangladesh, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Myanma r, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Those increases will more than offset an expected contraction in China, Japan and the Rep. of Korea.
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