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The impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses in rural economies - Findings from a local-economy general equilibrium modelling study

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FAO. 2022. The impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses in rural economies - Findings from a local-economy general equilibrium modelling study. Rome.




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    The impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses in rural economies
    Findings from a local-economy general equilibrium modelling study
    2023
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    The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies to limit its spread are multi-faceted and complex. Market linkages transmit these impacts through economies, from directly affected actors to others in both the urban and rural spheres. Economic contexts, including the structure of local economies, shape the transmission of impacts on rural men and women. Because of this, the pandemic, lockdowns, and mitigation policies influence outcomes in complex ways. In most cases, the magnitudes and even the signs of impacts cannot be determined ex ante. In this study, we use multiple local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) models to estimate the impacts of the pandemic and lockdowns on rural producers and households in a diversity of economic and agro-climatic settings, using simulation methods. We also examine the likely effects of alternative migitation measures.
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    The local economy impacts of social cash transfers
    A comparative analysis of seven sub-Saharan countries
    2016
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    This article presents findings on the local economy impacts of seven African country SCT programmes evaluated as part of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) “From Protection to Production” (PtoP) project. The countries are Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The PtoP project has facilitated expansion of the evaluations of SCT programmes to include productive and local-economy impacts. Local economy-wide impact evaluation (or LEWIE) employs simulation method s to reveal the full impact of cash transfers on local economies, including spillovers they create to non-beneficiaries. It does this by linking agricultural household models together into a general-equilibrium model of the local economy, in most cases a treated village or village cluster. Our LEWIE analysis finds evidence of significant spillovers, resulting in SCT income multipliers that are considerably greater than one in most cases. Most spillovers accrue to non-beneficiary households. Inte gration with outside markets shifts impacts out of local economies, reducing local income multipliers. Local supply constraints may result in price inflation which creates a divergence of real from nominal income multipliers for beneficiaries as well as non-beneficiaries. The existence of income spillovers reveals that SCT programmes have local economy impacts beyond the treated households, which could yield large benefits for rural developments.
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    Evaluating local general equilibrium impacts of Lesotho’s child grants programme
    PtoP from Protection to Production
    2014
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    This report presents findings from a local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) of Lesotho’s Child Grants Programme. Simulations indicate that total income impacts significantly exceed the amounts transferred under the programme: each maloti transferred stimulates local nominal income gains of up to 2.23 maloti. By stimulating demand for locally supplied goods and services, cash transfers have productive impacts, mostly in households that do not receive the transfer. Our simulations reveal the importance of the local supply response to changes in demand. Capital and labour constraints exert upward pressure on local prices and reduce the programme’s income multiplier in real terms. Nevertheless, real income multipliers remain significantly greater than 1.0 in most cases, even in the presence of factor constraints. Our findings raise questions about how to measure the impacts of cash transfers which include effects on non-beneficiaries as well as targeted households. Evaluations focusi ng only on the treated households are likely to significantly understate programme impacts because of general-equilibrium feedbacks in local economies.

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