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Book (stand-alone)Africa Report - No. 3 December 2005 2005
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Eastern Africa Harvesting of the 2005 main season cereal crops is underway in northern parts of the subregion while it has been completed in southern parts. A generally better 2005 harvest compared to 2004 is expected to improve food availability in most countries of the subregion. The overall food situation, however, remains precarious with high malnutrition rates reported in several countries arising from effects of war, displacement and past droughts. In Somalia, below av erage 2005 main “gu” season harvest in the south and an upsurge in civil strife have exacerbated the already precarious food situation. Nearly one million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. The food situation in Sudan is also alarming due to continued conflict and population displacement that have resulted in serious food insecurity, especially in Darfur and southern Sudan. Southern Africa There are delays in planting of main season crops due to inadequate rainfall so far in most countries in the subregion. Food insecurity is worsening during this lean period and nearly 12 million people, mainly in Zimbabwe and Malawi, are in need of emergency food assistance. Shortages of key farm inputs such as seed, fertilizer and draft power are reported in Zimbabwe. High inflation coupled with fuel and transport problems are exacerbating food insecurity. In Malawi, markets continue experiencing escalating prices of maize, the main staple food. So far, co mmercial imports and food aid deliveries have been meagre in spite of the significant amounts pledged by international donors. South Africa’s record maize harvest of 12.4 million tonnes is estimated to result in a potential exportable surplus of about 4.66 million tonnes, more than enough to cover the subregion’s import requirements. Western Africa Good harvests are expected in the Sahel, following generally favourable weather conditions throughout the growing season. Howeve r, the severe food crisis that hit the subregion in 2004/05 had serious income, livelihoods and nutrition effects and resulted in depletion of household assets including animals, as well as high levels of indebtedness, notably in Niger and parts of Burkina Faso, Mali and Mauritania. In spite of the improved food supply situation in these countries, assistance is still needed for income generating and asset reconstitution activities in order to strengthen access to food for vulnerable househ olds. In Côte d’Ivoire, insecurity and the de facto partition of the country continue to disrupt agricultural production and marketing activities. In Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, food assistance continues to be needed for internally displaced people and refugees. Central Africa Crop prospects and food security outlook are unfavourable in several countries due mainly to civil strife and insecurity. Overall crop prospects are favourable in Cameroon, but food insecurit y persists in Chari and Logone Division of the Extreme North which experienced a severe food crisis in 2005. The National Early Warning System in Burundi has warned of serious food insecurity beginning December 2005 due to a prolonged dry spell. A similar weather pattern is expected to affect the 2006 A season crops. -
Book (stand-alone)Crop Prospects and Food Situation - No. 1 April 2006 2006World cereal production in 2006 is forecast to decline marginally from last year's good level. Wheat output is expected to decrease reflecting smaller crops in the United States and the CIS in Europe, due to adverse weather. Production of coarse grains is tentatively forecast to decline mostly as a result of reduced plantings anticipated in the United States. Rice output may increase as very early prospects are favourable. In Eastern Africa, recent rains eased somewhat drought conditions i n the pastoral areas of the Horn, where 7.9 million people require emergency food aid. In Southern Africa, the 2006 maize crop, being gathered, has recovered from last year's drought-affected harvest in most countries of the subregion. However in South Africa and Angola, production will decline. In North Africa, bumper wheat and barley crops are in prospect. In Asia, the outlook for the 2006 wheat crop, being harvested, has deteriorated in India, but it is positive in other main producers of the region. Emergency assistance in needed in Mongolia and Timore-Leste following a sharply reduced 2005 cereal production. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the 2006 wheat output is anticipated substantially up in Mexico. In South America, maize output is forecast as sharply down in Argentina but production will recover in Brazil. However, rice crop in Brazil is put well below the record level of 2005. In Paraguay, the soybean crop will be again severely reduced by dry weather. A larger 2006 wheat crop is forecast in the EU but production is expected to decline in the United States. In the Russian Federation and Ukraine this year's wheat production is put sharply down due to abnormally cold winter.
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Book (stand-alone)Sahel Report , No. 1, 2006 2006
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The rainy season has started in the Sahel. Seasonal rains commenced in May in southern Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger and the extreme south-east of Senegal. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the rest of Senegal, Cape Verde, The Gambia , Mauritania and most of Guinea-Bissau . According to ACMAD’s (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development) seasonal Climate Prediction for 2006, there are higher probabilities that most of the Sahel region will experience "near-normal" to "ab ove-normal” rainfall conditions during the period July-September (when the region receives about 80 percent of its annual precipitation). Land preparation and planting are in progress following the onset of the rains. Seed availability is expected to be adequate in most countries, although localized shortages are likely in a few countries including Cape-Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania and Niger, where crop production was insufficient in some areas last year. In spite of an overall s atisfactory food supply situation, following a sharp recovery of cereal production in 2005 from the previous year’s drought and locust affected harvest, serious localized food insecurity is reported in several countries. In Guinea-Bissau a failure of the 2005 rice crop in the southern regions of Quinara and Tombali, combined with market disruption in the cashew sector, the source of cash income for rural households, led to severe food difficulties in these regions. In Niger, high levels of acute malnutrition are still reported in parts of the country, while in Mauritania the hunger period reportedly came early this year for thousands of households due to insufficient cereal production in 2005 and a lack of income. In these countries and others, vulnerable groups need to be continuously monitored and assisted as necessary during the lean season.
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