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Book (stand-alone)Africa Report - No. 2 September 2005 2005
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Eastern Africa: Prospects for the 2005 main season cereal crops have improved in some major producing areas of the subregion due to favourable rains. The overall food situation, however, remains precarious with high malnutrition rates reported in several countries in the subregion due to the effects of war, displacement and earlier droughts. Currently, more than 18 million people in the subregion depend on humanitarian assistance. The situation in Sudan is particularly alarming due to con tinued conflict that has resulted in a serious food situation, especially in Darfur and southern Sudan. In Somalia, recent assessments indicate severe food insecurity in several parts of the country. Below average 2005 main “gu” season harvest in southern Somalia coupled with an upsurge in civil strife have exacerbated the situation. Nearly one million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Recent food aid pledges for Eritrea and Ethiopia have boosted the food aid pipeline, but deliv eries need to be accelerated. Southern Africa: About 12 million people in the subregion, two-thirds of them in Zimbabwe and Malawi, are in need of emergency food assistance in the current marketing year. The situation is expected to worsen during the lean months until the next harvest in April-May, unless international relief is provided urgently. Most countries of the subregion including Zimbabwe, Botswana, Malawi, Namibia, Lesotho, Zambia and Swaziland have gathered below average main s eason cereal harvests in 2005. In Zimbabwe, high inflation coupled with shortages of maize grain and fuel as well as transport problems are causing serious food insecurity. For the same reasons, prospects for 2006 are dire, regardless of rainfall. In Malawi, about 4.6 million vulnerable people are facing severe food shortages and require an estimated 414 000 tonnes of cereals in emergency assistance. Current high maize prices are exacerbating the situation. Above average cereal harvests ha ve been estimated for South Africa, Angola, Mozambique and Madagascar. South Africa’s record maize harvest of 12.4 million tonnes is estimated to result in an exportable surplus of about 5 million tonnes, more than enough to cover the subregion’s import requirements. WFP’s regional Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation has so far received only 30 percent of the 704 000 tonnes requirement over a three-year period (2005-07). Western Africa: The Sahel and northern parts of coastal countrie s continue to face a difficult lean season, due to depleted household food stocks and unusually high food prices. However, current season crop development in the Sahel has been satisfactory so far in main producing zones, due to favourable growing conditions. In Niger, the food situation remains critical, and WFP has expanded its emergency operation to assist 2.5 million people until the end of the lean season in October. In Côte d’Ivoire, insecurity, labour shortages and the de facto partit ion of the country continue to disrupt agricultural production and marketing activities. In Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, food assistance continues to be needed for internally displaced people and refugees. Central Africa: Cereal harvests of the main season (2005B) were favourable in Rwanda and Burundi with improvements in the order of 33 percent and 7 percent above the five-year averages in the two countries, respectively. Food insecurity persists in the violence-prone eastern part of DRC and in pockets of chronically vulnerable districts in Burundi and Rwanda. -
Book (stand-alone)Sahel Report , No. 1, 2006 2006
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The rainy season has started in the Sahel. Seasonal rains commenced in May in southern Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger and the extreme south-east of Senegal. Seasonably dry conditions prevail in the rest of Senegal, Cape Verde, The Gambia , Mauritania and most of Guinea-Bissau . According to ACMAD’s (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development) seasonal Climate Prediction for 2006, there are higher probabilities that most of the Sahel region will experience "near-normal" to "ab ove-normal” rainfall conditions during the period July-September (when the region receives about 80 percent of its annual precipitation). Land preparation and planting are in progress following the onset of the rains. Seed availability is expected to be adequate in most countries, although localized shortages are likely in a few countries including Cape-Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania and Niger, where crop production was insufficient in some areas last year. In spite of an overall s atisfactory food supply situation, following a sharp recovery of cereal production in 2005 from the previous year’s drought and locust affected harvest, serious localized food insecurity is reported in several countries. In Guinea-Bissau a failure of the 2005 rice crop in the southern regions of Quinara and Tombali, combined with market disruption in the cashew sector, the source of cash income for rural households, led to severe food difficulties in these regions. In Niger, high levels of acute malnutrition are still reported in parts of the country, while in Mauritania the hunger period reportedly came early this year for thousands of households due to insufficient cereal production in 2005 and a lack of income. In these countries and others, vulnerable groups need to be continuously monitored and assisted as necessary during the lean season. -
Book (series)Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 2 June 2016 2016Global cereal production prospects continue to improve although latest forecasts indicate that world cereal output in 2016 would still fall slightly short of the projected demand in 2016/17. COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that 37 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts, acutely undermining agricultural capacities and drought‑induced production declines, frequently linked to the now dissipating El Niño, are the main causes stressing food security in 2016. In AFRICA: The early aggregate outlook for the 2016 cereal crops points to a fall in production, mostly resulting from expected drought-reduced harvests in North and Southern Africa. In Central and West Africa, 2016 early crop prospects are uncertain, largely due to unfavourable weather and conflicts, while the overall outlook improved in East Africa, on account of recent favourable rains that eliminated early seasonal dryness. In ASIA: The outlook fo r 2016 points to a production recovery in the Far East, with a steep increase foreseen in India expected to more than offset a cut in China’s output. By contrast, cereal outputs are likely to fall in the Asian CIS subregion and in the Near East, where several countries continue to be severely affected by conflicts. In LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Aggregate cereal production in 2016 is forecast to decline on expectations of reduced crops in the key-producing countries of Brazil and Mexico, bu t still remain above average, mostly owing to a larger output anticipated in Argentina. Production recoveries from the 2015 drought‑reduced levels are foreseen in Central America and the Caribbean countries.
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