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Forest succession by space and time based on climate and landuse changes

XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022

Year of publication 2022

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 9p.

Author Moon, G., Kim, S., Park, J., et al.

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Article

Synopsis (short abstract) This research predicted the transition of forest structure by analyzing changes in the dominant vegetation and spatial distribution based on climate and land use changes. The research region involves the mountainous and city vicinity located in Okcheon-gun, Korea. Climate change detailing was carried out until 2100 by employing the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the MaxEnt model was used to predict the land cover change. The data stemming from the above were applied to the Landis-II model. The analysis of forest changes was performed based on the years 2050 and 2100 that showed the most dramatic prediction results of climate changes. Comparing to 2020, the mean minimum temperature fell down by 0.45°C in 2050 and increased by about 0.96°C in 2100. The mean maximum temperature increased by about 0.31°C in 2050 and about 1.96°C in 2100. In the prediction of land cover change, mountainous region exhibited a decreased tendency of agricultural lands in 2050 and 2100, and region city vicinity showed a decrease in residential lands, demonstrating very small land cover changes of the forest in both regions. As for the predicted vegetation change, both regions showed a decrease in the dominant area of Pinus densiflora, Pinus Koraiensis, and Pinus rigida, on the other hand, showing an increase in the dominant area of Quercus serrate, Quercus variabilis, and Quercus aliena. In conclusion, the future forest vegetation of two regions showed a decreased tendency in the alien species that could not reproduce under natural conditions, tree species that grow in cold climate regions, and the reforestaion species that were planted due to a necessity of human beings, whereas the area of Quercus species, which are mainly distributed to a relatively warm climate, increased. Therefore, in order to determine tree species for restoration where interfered nature and area that need logging, it should be decided based on the predicted vegetation change in a given area to maximize the forest function. Keywords: Forest transition; Climate change; Landuse change; LANDIS-II; Sustainable forest management ID: 3621835

Language English

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