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Economic analysis of supply and demand for fish, fishery products and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa up to 2022 – special focus on fish and fishery products. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1101.












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    Demand for products of irrigated agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa 2006
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    If irrigated production is to make a significant contribution to food security and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it will have to be re-structured across the region as a whole. This is the main conclusion of a study undertaken by FAO to analyse the drivers of demand for irrigated production in SSA. Steeply rising commercial food import bills for staple crops across SSA are indicative of the level of demand that is not being met from domestic production. The increase in area und er equipped/spate irrigation for the whole of Africa over the last ten years amounts to 1.27 million ha, which is equal to about 127 000 ha per year. This rate of growth has proved too low to have an impact on food import bills and buffer regional food security. However, within subregional trading groups there is scope for consolidation of market supply. Some key conclusions emerge: first, matching the structure of the irrigated subsector to the structure of demand is essential; second, it w ill be necessary to realize the value of the existing asset base where supply chains, storage and processing can be concentrated to address specific, well identified markets; third, prior to new public expenditure or the encouragement of private investment, the full implications of price impacts must be taken into account; and, finally, the costs of supplying into specific crop markets will need to be assessed. With these provisions in mind and the political and institutional constraints not withstanding, irrigated production opportunities in SSA could be realized where natural resources and markets coincide, but only through a great deal more attention to costs of production, price formation, effective water allocation mechanisms, economically efficient water use and strong, responsive institutions.
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    Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps 2017
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    A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential future fish demand and supply gaps at the country (nearly 200 countries or territories), regional (about 40 country groups), and global levels for nine species groups. Salient results at the global, regional and country levels are presented in the main text. Key results for all countries and all the nine species groups (including both standard and conservative projections) are documented in the appendix. The results indic ate that: (i) if fish prices and consumer preferences remain the same, income growth would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection); (ii) the income-driven per capita fish demand hike, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million tonnes under the conservative projection); (iii) the 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated b y the trend growth of world aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand growth (or 62 percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-supply gap of 28 million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative projection) in the early 2020s; (iv) the demand-supply gap for shellfish (i.e. crustaceans and molluscs) would be bigger than that for finfish – they would account for, respectively, 55 percent and 45 percent of the 28-million-tonne fish deman d-supply gap; (v) while world aquaculture production following its recent trend would grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, it would take a 9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent under the conservative projection) to fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s; (vi) the trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth driven by population and income growth; e xcess demand is expected to occur in 170 countries (or 163 countries under the conservative projection); and (vii) should the world aquaculture production fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e. 9.9 percent or 6.9 percent under the standard or conservative projection), and assuming world capture fisheries production would remain at the current level, the world fish price would have to increase to reduce fish demand in order to clear the market (i.e. no demand-supply gap). Results gen erated by the short-term projection model are useful for policymaking, development aids, business or investment planning, and other decision-making by various stakeholders in aquaculture and fisheries. They are a complement to and can potentially enhance the understanding of the results of more sophisticated forecasting models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model.
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    Socio-economic and biological impacts of the fish-based feed industry for sub-Saharan Africa 2022
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    As populations grow and urbanize, demand also increases for animal-source foods, including farmed livestock and fish, and for feed products that can include fish-derived ingredients. Low- and middle-income countries are increasingly concerned about the fish-derived ingredient and fish-based feed industry, as many of the fish species used for fish-derived ingredients and fish-based feed production are important for communities as a source of livelihoods and food and nutrition security. The objective of this study was to understand the drivers, outcomes, and trade-offs of the fish-based feed industry for sub-Saharan Africa. The study, using various information sources and mixed methods for data collection and analysis, found that fish-based feeds are mainly exported, offering some economic benefits to governments and fish workers throughout the value chain. At the same time, however, the study results suggest that the industry constitutes a threat to the livelihoods and food and nutrition security of local communities. Looking to the future, a range of actions that are required to ensure that the fish-based feed industry contributes to equitable social and economic development, nutritional benefits, and environmental sustainability were identified. Using a stakeholder Delphi assessment, the study prioritized recommendations for decision-making and future research and these included the establishment of and/or compliance with regulations for environmentally friendly and healthy/safe fish-derived ingredients and fish-based feed production, as well as continued efforts to identify and promote alternative efficient to use feed products that do not rely (or rely less on) fish-based ingredients.

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