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A contribution to the analyses of the effects of foreign agricultural investment on the food sector and trade in Sub-Saharan Africa








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    The impact of changes in the fundamental drivers of trade – Productivity, trade costs, and trade policies
    Background paper for The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2022
    2022
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    Countries’ varying natural resource endowments are vital in explaining international trade. Traditional trade theory suggests that differences in technology and factor endowments lead countries to specialize and export certain goods or services in which they have a comparative advantage. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations used in this paper aim to explain agricultural trade patterns and show how agricultural trade would change in response to productivity, infrastructure and institutions improvements and trade cost changes from regional and global trade liberalization. A set of nine scenarios is used to explore the effects of productivity, transport costs, non-tariff barriers (NTB), and border measures changes on agricultural and food trade and related welfare implications. Policies driving agricultural productivity growth such as investments in research and development, economic reforms that strengthen incentives for farmers, rural education and extension, and improved infrastructure are shown to reduce the yield gap and improve productivity. Lower trade costs help comparative advantage play out, resulting in gains from trade. Measures taken to increase trade integration in Africa and Asia will be important for economic growth and development in these regions.
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    Potential Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa of Reducing Food Loss and Waste in the European Union
    A focus on food prices and price transmission effects
    2015
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    This paper uses scenario analyses to investigate how reductions in food loss and waste (FLW) in the European Union (EU) could influence prices in sub-Saharan Africa – as a source and destination of traded agricultural and food products. In addition to a baseline “business as usual” (BaU) scenario, four scenarios with 50-percent reductions are enacted using the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET). The analysis provides insights on potential impacts in terms of medium- to long-term g lobal and local price changes in sub- Saharan Africa and the mechanisms behind them – changes in production, consumption and trade patterns. It also provides insights into the potential welfare impacts. The research shows that loss or waste of safe and nutritious food for human consumption is being prevented and reduced in the EU concurrent to actions in other regions. The potential intra- and inter-regional impacts on food prices and welfare therefore need to be further researched and projected . The research also shows that high-level considerations of the socio-economic impacts of FLW need to be balanced with value chain analyses that include data on costs related to the prevention and reduction measures to be implemented for short-, mediumand long-term returns on investments along food supply chains, including at the end consumption level.
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    Report of the Workshop on Climate Proofing Aquaculture in sub-Saharan Africa: Review of Policies and Production Systems for Climate Change Resilience, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9-10 June 2016 2017
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    Regionally across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), aquaculture is a rapidly growing industry with its practices and operations increasingly more commercialized across the continent. An estimated six-fold production increase, from 55,690 tonnes in 2000 to 359,790 tonnes in 2010 was recorded. This trend is expected to increase as the continent’s aquaculture operations develops and industrializes. This inevitable production increase and consequent intensification will predominantly be based on fossil fuel s. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the FAO have entered an agreement to improve the implementation and management of existing critical climate change gaps. The series of projects aims to improve global understanding of climate change impact on fisheries and aquaculture development and highlight regional climate change adaptation measures taken on food systems and food security across the Africa region. Together, the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Center’s WorldFi sh and FAO-RAF (Regional Africa Office) have conducted an assessment of the region’s aquaculture development and climate change impact adaptation status under two project scopes: (i) a policy review; this component presents a diagnosis of the existing/non-existing African climate change policies related to aquaculture, the sector’s resiliency and aims to lay bare a regional overview. (ii) a vulnerability assessment model exercise; this exercise utilizes numerous datasets (i.e. meteorological, aq uaculture, and socio-economic variables) and inputs from country representative deliberations from a validation workshop. The exercise simulated the vulnerability of regional pond aquaculture systems to climate change impact, however it was agreed that due to data gaps at the country level, the deliberated simulation conclusions were not conclusive and unable to guide climate change adaptation policies. More importantly, the process highlighted what was required at the national level to make mor e realistic and conclusive assessments for tangible adaptation policies. Together, the policy review and the vulnerability assessment tool demonstrated the required country level actions necessary to prioritize action areas to develop and put in place climate change impact strategies.

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