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Assessing the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sectors in Malawi

The MOSAICC methodology for national adaptation planning











Fujisawa, M., Gordes, A. & Heureux, A. 2020. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sectors in Malawi. The MOSAICC methodology for national adaptation planning. Rome, FAO.



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    The project “Promoting coherence between disaster risk reduction, climate action and social protection in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi)” aims to support poor and vulnerable households to strengthen their resilience to climate change and climate variability through social protection (SP) and the adoption of proven climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices blended with disaster risk reduction (DRR). FAO Malawi leads the implementation of the project in two targeted districts of Mwanza and Neno, targeting 2 400 farmers, some of them being beneficiaries of existing SP programmes. At community level, the project is implemented through the farmer field school (FFS) approach and delivered through 80 FFS groups located in 74 villages.To evaluate impacts of the project, we use a crossover design to compare the relative merits of its different components and combine various evaluation methods. This is a baseline report on the “Promoting coherence between disaster risk reduction, climate action and social protection in sub-Saharan Africa (Malawi)” project.
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    This working paper analyses the financial cost and benefit of adopting two different bundles of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, which are tailored for the diverse conditions that prevail in southern Malawi. The results show the integration of CSA practices, including soil conservation, agroforestry, and livestock diversification, into conventional maize-legume and maize monocrop systems is profitable for farmers. Moreover, the profitability of these systems increases under extreme weather conditions that occur with increasing frequency in the region. However, the upfront costs and cost variability associated with the adoption of these CSA scenarios is high relative to conventional practices. In addition, while the Net Present Value is positive for the CSA scenarios, the monetary returns are small and are spread over a long investment period. These factors act as significant barriers to adopting CSA practices. Supporting farmers through climate financing or other mechanisms to make long-term private investment in CSA, based on the public benefits these investments generate for the environment, is critical for achieving widespread adoption.

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