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Book (stand-alone)Food Outlook, June 2006 2006The recent months saw commodity markets as a whole becoming more volatile with a steady upward trend in prices. In agricultural markets, some important food and feed commodities gained on supply tightness and stronger demand while in the energy complex and metals, the tighter supply and demand balance resulted in a steep increase in prices. Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also had to confront abnormal incidences of natural disa sters, ranging from devastating hurricanes to fast spreading animal diseases. Based on current indications, several agricultural commodities are likely to experience still more unstable months ahead and, in most instances, the fundamentals point to even further gains in prices. This eventuality seems strongest for cereals, as world cereal demand is forecast to surpass its supply in the new season and push down stocks to an uncomfortably low level. For sugar, while a further surge in prices from the current high levels could be considered as less probable, the main risk remains the continuing price volatility. For the oilseed complex, as well as meat and dairy, fundamentals at this point in time do not support a tightening in the markets and the near-term price prospects are more on the downside instead. Against this background of mixed outlook but generally firm prices, FAO is forecasting an increase of over 2 percent in the world food import bill in 2006 compared to 2005. The increase is expected to be strongest for cereals and sugar but smallest for meat. Given their higher share as importers of food and feed, the developing countries’ bill is forecast to grow by 3.5 percent while that of the Low Income Food Deficit Countries is forecast to jump by nearly 7 percent.
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