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Book (series)Future prospects for fish and fishery products. 4. Fish consumption in the European Union in 2015 and 2030. Part 2. Country projections [Available on the Web only] 2008
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No results found.This report presents the major results by country for fish consumption (consumption per capita and apparent consumption), production (captures and aquaculture and commodities) and fish trade (exports and imports) estimations and projections for 28 countries in Europe from 1989 to 2030. The increasing demand of ready-to-eat products are projected for everywhere in Europe in 2030 but with a more marked trend in the western countries because of high purchasing power in the region. Changes in consumption are mainly changes in commodities rather than species: the same species will be consumed in 2030 but in a different form. Eastern European countries will progressively catch up and conform to the consumption pattern of the Western countries. The improvement of their economies and changing consumption habits will slowly allow Eastern countries to develop a demand-driven market rather than the current supply-driven one. But, behind the apparent standardisation of consumption, regional differences will still exist: a Spanish consumer will not have the same consumption pattern as a Swedish or a Romanian one. National preferences will be conditioned through the net supply of commodities that respect historical tastes and habits but also integrate modern living conditions. -
Book (stand-alone)Short-term projection of global fish demand and supply gaps 2017
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No results found.A short-term projection model is developed to assess and monitor potential future fish demand and supply gaps at the country (nearly 200 countries or territories), regional (about 40 country groups), and global levels for nine species groups. Salient results at the global, regional and country levels are presented in the main text. Key results for all countries and all the nine species groups (including both standard and conservative projections) are documented in the appendix. The results indic ate that: (i) if fish prices and consumer preferences remain the same, income growth would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid-2010s to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s (or 23 kg/year under the conservative projection); (ii) the income-driven per capita fish demand hike, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 million tonnes (or 31 million tonnes under the conservative projection); (iii) the 19-million-tonne fish supply growth generated b y the trend growth of world aquaculture production would cover only 40 percent of the projected demand growth (or 62 percent of the conservative projection), leaving a fish demand-supply gap of 28 million tonnes (or 16 million tonnes under the conservative projection) in the early 2020s; (iv) the demand-supply gap for shellfish (i.e. crustaceans and molluscs) would be bigger than that for finfish – they would account for, respectively, 55 percent and 45 percent of the 28-million-tonne fish deman d-supply gap; (v) while world aquaculture production following its recent trend would grow 4.5 percent annually from the mid-2010s to the early 2020s, it would take a 9.9 percent annual growth (or 6.9 percent under the conservative projection) to fill the world fish demand-supply gap in the early 2020s; (vi) the trend aquaculture growth in only 17 countries (or 24 countries under the conservative projection) would be sufficient to cover the demand growth driven by population and income growth; e xcess demand is expected to occur in 170 countries (or 163 countries under the conservative projection); and (vii) should the world aquaculture production fall short of the required annual growth rate (i.e. 9.9 percent or 6.9 percent under the standard or conservative projection), and assuming world capture fisheries production would remain at the current level, the world fish price would have to increase to reduce fish demand in order to clear the market (i.e. no demand-supply gap). Results gen erated by the short-term projection model are useful for policymaking, development aids, business or investment planning, and other decision-making by various stakeholders in aquaculture and fisheries. They are a complement to and can potentially enhance the understanding of the results of more sophisticated forecasting models such as the OECD-FAO Fish Model and the World Bank-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 model. -
Book (series)Fish Supply and Demand in the Near East Region 2005
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No results found.According to FAO Near East fisheries data for 2003, the thirty two member countries as a group produced a total of 4.4 million tonnes of fish from all sources (marine and inland waters as well as catch and aquaculture). About 3.7 million tonnes (85 percent) of this production came from capture fisheries while the balance of 669 000 tonnes (15 percent) came from aquaculture in marine, brackish and fresh water bodies. A computerized calculation was formulated to project the food supply gap by 2015 ; the demand for fish for the target year was calculated on the basis of the average annual growth in fish production which resulted to be 4.2 million tonnes. Consequently, the population growth was a given rate. Assuming that fish per capita consumption remains constant at 5.83 by 2015, the supply gap is likely to be about 735 000 tonnes, which is a relatively modest quantity. However, only some countries will suffer from a supply gap.
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