Thumbnail Image

Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops








This is the draft pre-print paper of an article published externally in Nature Food December 2020, pp. 775–782. Published 11 December 2020


Toreti, A., Deryng, D., Tubiello, F.N. et al. Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops. Nat Food 1, 775–782 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4


Also available in:
No results found.

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Thumbnail Image
    Book (series)
    The AquaCrop model – Enhancing crop water productivity
    Ten years of development, dissemination and implementation 2009–2019
    2021
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    Water resources are linked to the global challenges of food insecurity and poverty, as well as to climate change adaptation and mitigation. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SGD), FAO works towards several dimensions of sustainable development, including the promotion of coherent approaches to efficient, productive and sustainable water management, from farm to river basin scales. Accordingly, FAO is enhancing well-informed on-the-ground decision-making processes on water management through projects, knowledge advancement, information-sharing and tools development, such as AquaCrop, the FAO crop-water productivity model. This model assists in assessing the effects of environment (including atmospheric CO2 concentration) and management on crop production through the simulation of yield response to water of herbaceous crops. It is particularly suited to address conditions where water is a key limiting factor in crop production. In 2009, FAO officially launched AquaCrop, being the result of several years of collaborative work among scientists, water and crop specialists and practitioners worldwide, bringing together previously fragmented information on crop yields in response to water use and water deficit. AquaCrop has evolved over the different versions released since its first launch, but it always balances accuracy, simplicity and robustness. This has enabled it to remain faithful to its goal, i.e., to be a dynamic tool accessible to several types of users, mainly practitioner-type end users, in different disciplines and for a wide range of applications. In addition, AquaCrop may be considered a valuable tool by research scientists for analysis and conceptualization.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Article
    A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks
    Nature, published on 07 October 2020, Volume 586, pages 248–256
    2020
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum–maximum estimates: 12.2–23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9–17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2–11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies—particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O–climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Document
    Immersive Forest: Using VR to communicate the impacts of climate change and management practices on future forests
    XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
    2022
    Also available in:
    No results found.

    The expected changes in the Earth’s climate could affect substantially how forests contribute to climate mitigation. Education, as a pillar for development and growth, needs practical tools to help future forestry experts better understand the underlying mechanisms and shape adaptive forest management strategies. Three-dimensional (3D) visualization and Virtual Reality (VR) have a great potential to help scientific knowledge transfer and enhance learning in forest management and planning. We developed a software system able to project forest stands under climate change uncertainty, by coupling a forest dynamics and ecosystem services simulator with VR technology.

    As a case study, we selected representative forest stands along the climatic gradient of Catalonia, Spain, and projected them 100 years into the future under two climate change scenarios and increasing thinning intensities. Forest dynamics simulations were based on SORTIE-ND spatially explicit process-based model, while ecosystem services estimations relied on statistical models from the literature. The simulated outputs were translated into high fidelity 3D models and visualized in the VR platform developed in the Unity game engine. The VR application allows navigation through different stages of the simulation, exploring the impacts of management prescriptions and climate change scenarios on individual trees and forest ecosystem services.

    Our approach can serve as an excellent exercise for forest management practitioners and forestry students. While we specifically focus on its educational potential, the VR tool can facilitate communication between experts and the public on the interactive effects of climate change and management actions on forested areas. Keywords: Climate change, Sustainable forest management, Adaptive and integrated management, Education ID: 3487007

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

No results found.