Rice Market Monitor - March 2006

FAO;

Rice Market Monitor - March 2006

Year of publication 2006

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 25 p.

Author FAO;

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Newsletter

Series title Rice Market Monitor

Series number Vol. IX No. 1

Full item page

Synopsis (short abstract) 2005 was a record breaking year for the world rice economy. For the third consecutive season, global paddy production experienced a brisk expansion, which lifted it to an all time high of 628 million tonnes. Growth reflected relatively favourable weather conditions in Asia, western Africa and South America and the positive effects of high prices in 2004, which had fostered a general increase in plantings. Tight domestic supplies in a number of countries confronted with production shortfalls in 2004 prompted a surge of global imports in calendar 2005 to a record volume of 29.0 million tonnes. The expansion in trade in 2005 took place despite relatively tight export availabilities in Thailand and China (mainland), as reduced sales from these countries were more than compensated by increased shipments from the other major exporting countries, in particular India, Pakistan and Viet Nam.

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Prospects for world paddy production in 2006 have deteriorated, reflecting a bleaker outlook for crops in Asia which were affected by persistent drought problems, monsoon floods and, since September, by a series of typhoons. Insects and diseases were also reported to have caused extensive losses. Based on the latest FAO forecast of 631 million tonnes, global paddy production would decline by 1 million tonnes compared with 2005.
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FAO has revised upwards by 3 million tonnes its forecast for global paddy production in 2006, which now stands at 637 million tonnes, only 1.0 percent more than in 2005. Such a sluggish growth is imputable to a general rise in production, processing and marketing costs, but also reflects expectations that growing conditions in the current season might not be as favourable as in 2005. Asian countries are now expected to gather 577 million tonnes in 2006, 4 million tonnes more than previously fo recast and 7.5 million tonnes larger than last year. Much of the increase would reflect progress in Bangladesh, China and Viet Nam and, to a smaller extent, in Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand. Crop prospects continue to be negative in Japan, the Republic of Korea and Sri Lanka and, now, also in Pakistan.
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FAOs forecast for global paddy production in 2006 has been downgraded by 2 million tonnes from last report and now stands at 635 million tonnes, marginally above the 2005s level. Much of the downward revision reflects adverse weather conditions, which have led to much less buoyant crop prospects in Bangladesh, China and Nepal.

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