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Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #7, 12 September 2024

Monthly report on food price trends













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    Seasonal supplies continued to weigh on the world prices of wheat and maize in August 2023, as their harvesting operations were concluded in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, respectively. By contrast, international rice prices rose to their highest level in 15 years, in nominal terms, largely reflecting trade disruptions registered in the aftermath of India’s July ban on Indica white rice exports. In most countries monitored by FAO, domestic prices of basic food commodities persisted at year-on-year higher levels in July and August 2023 due to the impact of conflict and insecurity, adverse weather, high prices of agricultural inputs, elevated distribution costs and currency weaknesses. On a monthly basis, domestic rice prices increased seasonally in most countries in East Asia, while supplies from 2023 harvests supported a decline in maize prices in Southern Africa and South America. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia countries and in East Asia, ample carryover stocks and supplies from recent harvests underpinned month-on-month declines in wheat and wheat flour prices.
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    International prices of all major cereals increased in May 2024. Significant increases were registered for wheat export prices, reflecting concerns about the impacts of unfavourable crop conditions in major producing countries, while maize export prices rose due to various factors. The FAO All Rice Price Index also increased in May, driven by higher Indica quotations. In many countries monitored by FAO, domestic staple food prices remained at high levels in April and May 2024, underpinned by adverse weather events, conflict-related disruptions to supply chains and macroeconomic difficulties contributing to high food distribution costs. The lingering effect of prolonged conflict and insecurity remained a major driver of the high food prices in Haiti, Myanmar, South Sudan, the Sudan and Sahelian countries. In Southern Africa and Argentina, the anticipated year-on-year decline in the maize output sustained upward pressure on prices, amidst ongoing harvests. In South America and Far East Asia, rice prices were generally higher year-on-year in the major producing countries despite seasonal harvest downward pressure.
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    International wheat and coarse grain prices declined in January 2024 as large seasonal supplies exerted downward pressure on prices. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.2 percent in January, largely reflecting increases in Indica quotations. FAO’s analysis of domestic staple food prices shows that high price levels persisted in December 2023 and January 2024. In most countries, domestic staple food prices remained elevated due to multiple factors, including conflicts, insecurity and extreme weather events, which constrained food availability and access. Currency weakness remains a compounding factor tightening supply, especially in net food importing countries, through reduced imports due to financial constraints and increasing debt burdens.

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    In recent years, several major drivers have put the world off track to ending world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. The challenges have grown with the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures. This report presents the first global assessment of food insecurity and malnutrition for 2020 and offers some indication of what hunger might look like by 2030 in a scenario further complicated by the enduring effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also includes new estimates of the cost and affordability of healthy diets, which provide an important link between the food security and nutrition indicators and the analysis of their trends. Altogether, the report highlights the need for a deeper reflection on how to better address the global food security and nutrition situation.To understand how hunger and malnutrition have reached these critical levels, this report draws on the analyses of the past four editions, which have produced a vast, evidence-based body of knowledge of the major drivers behind the recent changes in food security and nutrition. These drivers, which are increasing in frequency and intensity, include conflicts, climate variability and extremes, and economic slowdowns and downturns – all exacerbated by the underlying causes of poverty and very high and persistent levels of inequality. In addition, millions of people around the world suffer from food insecurity and different forms of malnutrition because they cannot afford the cost of healthy diets. From a synthesized understanding of this knowledge, updates and additional analyses are generated to create a holistic view of the combined effects of these drivers, both on each other and on food systems, and how they negatively affect food security and nutrition around the world.In turn, the evidence informs an in-depth look at how to move from silo solutions to integrated food systems solutions. In this regard, the report proposes transformative pathways that specifically address the challenges posed by the major drivers, also highlighting the types of policy and investment portfolios required to transform food systems for food security, improved nutrition, and affordable healthy diets for all. The report observes that, while the pandemic has caused major setbacks, there is much to be learned from the vulnerabilities and inequalities it has laid bare. If taken to heart, these new insights and wisdom can help get the world back on track towards the goal of ending hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition in all its forms.
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    The FAOSTAT emissions database is composed of several data domains covering the categories of the IPCC Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector of the national GHG inventory. Energy use in agriculture is additionally included as relevant to emissions from agriculture as an economic production sector under the ISIC A statistical classification, though recognizing that, in terms of IPCC, they are instead part of the Energy sector of the national GHG inventory. FAO emissions estimates are available over the period 1961–2018 for agriculture production processes from crop and livestock activities. Land use emissions and removals are generally available only for the period 1990–2019. This analytical brief focuses on overall trends over the period 2000–2018.