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Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 1- March 2016












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    Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4 2015
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    FAO’s latest forecasts for global supply and demand of cereals continue to point to a generally comfortable 2015/16 marketing season, with world inventories by the close of seasons in 2016 expected to fall only slightly below their record opening levels. AFRICA: Cereal production in 2015 is forecast to fall, mainly reflecting the impact of adverse weather on Southern Africa’s output and the ongoing harvest in East Africa. Harvests in West and Central Africa are forecast to remain close to the levels of 2014, while a production recovery in North Africa is anticipated to prevent a steeper regional decline. Conflicts in several countries continued to severely affect food security and the agriculture sector, while drought conditions in East Africa have severely impacted pastoralist livelihoods. ASIA: A record 2015 cereal crop in China boosted aggregate regional production to levels above the previous year, while a recovery in Turkey’s output also contributed. However, dry weather in so me areas of the Far East lowered production in several countries, with a significant decline estimated in India. The persistent conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen continued to severely impact on agricultural production and aggravate the humanitarian crisis. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Despite improved prospects for second season crops, El Niño-associated dry weather reduced overall 2015 crop production in Central America and the Caribbean, excluding Mexico, where a bumpe r crop was gathered. Large 2015 maize harvests are also estimated in South America, where plantings for the 2016 crops are expected to decline, mainly reflecting ample regional supplies and lower commodity prices. El Niño continues to impact on global agriculture: Following El Niño-related dry weather that adversely affected 2015 crop production in parts of Asia, Central America and the Caribbean, and Oceania, developing dryness in Southern Africa has dampened early 2016 production prospects. FAO estimates that, globally, 33 countries, including 26 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food.
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    Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.3, 8 October 2015 2015
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    World cereal supply and demand balance in the 2015/16 marketing season is likely to remain in a generally comfortable situation. While world cereal production is expected to fall below last year’s record, supplies will be almost sufficient to meet the projected demand, requiring only a small reduction in global inventories by the end of the season. AFRICA: Aggregate 2015 cereal production is forecast to decline mostly on account of poor prospects in East Africa and an expected reduced output i n Southern Africa. Average crops are foreseen in West and Central Africa, while a recovery in North Africa’s production averted a sharper regional decline. In East Africa, pockets of starvation have been reported in some conflict-affected areas of South Sudan calling for urgent and concerted efforts to avert a disaster. In addition, food security conditions deteriorated in Southern Africa, while persistent and disruptive conflicts in parts of Central, East and West Africa continue to devastate t he agricultural sector and acutely impact on food security conditions. ASIA: Despite a forecast increase in the 2015 aggregate regional cereal harvest, mainly as result of a record output forecast in China, dry weather diminished production in India and several countries of the Far East subregion. In the Near East, a production recovery is foreseen from last year’s drought-affected output, but conflicts in Iraq, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen continue to aggravate the humanitarian crisis. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: El Niño-associated dry weather conditions have sharply reduced crop production forecasts in Central America and the Caribbean. On the other hand, record maize harvests are estimated in South America and Mexico, while a bumper wheat output is also forecast in South America. Strong El Niño predicted to persist into early 2016. El Niño-related dry weather patterns have already adversely impacted on production in parts of Asia and Central America and the Caribbe an. The expected prevalence and continuation of El Niño-associated weather patterns into 2016 have raised alarms in many parts of the world where the cropping season has started or is about to start, including parts of Asia and Southern Africa. FAO estimates that, globally, 35 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food.
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    Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 2 June 2016 2016
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    Global cereal production prospects continue to improve although latest forecasts indicate that world cereal output in 2016 would still fall slightly short of the projected demand in 2016/17. COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that 37 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts, acutely undermining agricultural capacities and drought‑induced production declines, frequently linked to the now dissipating El Niño, are the main causes stressing food security in 2016. In AFRICA: The early aggregate outlook for the 2016 cereal crops points to a fall in production, mostly resulting from expected drought-reduced harvests in North and Southern Africa. In Central and West Africa, 2016 early crop prospects are uncertain, largely due to unfavourable weather and conflicts, while the overall outlook improved in East Africa, on account of recent favourable rains that eliminated early seasonal dryness. In ASIA: The outlook fo r 2016 points to a production recovery in the Far East, with a steep increase foreseen in India expected to more than offset a cut in China’s output. By contrast, cereal outputs are likely to fall in the Asian CIS subregion and in the Near East, where several countries continue to be severely affected by conflicts. In LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: Aggregate cereal production in 2016 is forecast to decline on expectations of reduced crops in the key-producing countries of Brazil and Mexico, bu t still remain above average, mostly owing to a larger output anticipated in Argentina. Production recoveries from the 2015 drought‑reduced levels are foreseen in Central America and the Caribbean countries.

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