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Book (stand-alone)Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interactions between developed and developing countries
Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 10.
2004Also available in:
No results found.The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 5.4 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions between the possible strategies of two wide country groups – developed and d eveloping countries on the basis of game theory, and to search for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached. -
Book (stand-alone)Rice prices and growth, and poverty reduction in Bangladesh 2018
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No results found.This paper examines the complex relationship between rice prices and economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security in Bangladesh including the impact on producers and consumers. The impact on macro variables is also examined. Using available literature and knowledge of Bangladesh, the researchers examine whether or not a relationship between economic growth/poverty reduction in Bangladesh and rice prices likely exists, and also discusses the mechanisms through which the two are potentially related. The paper finds that historically, the rice sector used to dominate Bangladesh agriculture and the economy as a whole, determining GDP growth rates, inflation, wages, employment, food security and poverty with the rice price being a very sensitive economic and political economy variable. This has changed dramatically with a much more diversified agricultural economy, declining share of agriculture and rice in GDP and rapid industrialization and growth of services. The rice sector (production) has benefited immensely from the Green Revolution, tripling production in three decades and continuing to play a significant role in employment creation and food security. It also benefited from the trade liberalization and structural adjustment reforms of the 1980s and 1990s that served to open up agriculture to world market forces while also reducing subsidies and withdrawing from a number of direct interventions. The startling fact is that the performance of the sector was accompanied by a long–term decline in real rice prices. It is unlikely that this kind of performance is sustainable in the absence of any further technological, cost–reducing breakthroughs so that policy makers need to focus on how to deliver price and non–price incentives to this important sector. -
Book (stand-alone)No. 11. Dairy - Measuring the impact of reform
FAO TRADE POLICY TECHNICAL NOTES
2005Determining the impact of reforms to dairy sector policies is problematic and controversial. The extent and pervasiveness of intervention in the sector, and the resulting distortions to the international market, would suggest that liberalization could potentially lead to large gains, and indeed these are consistently reflected in most model-based analyses. The size of impacts has long been thought of as the key reason why dairy reforms and trade discussions have been so diffi cult. However, there are reasons for questioning estimates of the likely magnitudes of such impacts across different importing and exporting countries.
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