7. DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND PROSPECTS

7.1 Demand and Future Production Estimates
7.2 National Fishery Plans in Selected Countries
7.3 Prospects for Planning and Development

7.1 Demand and Future Production Estimates

The best possible estimates of present fish consumption and estimated demand have been compiled by the Policy and Planning Service of the Department of Fisheries, FAO, and are presented in Table 7.1.

The per caput consumption varies from as little as 4.4 kilograms per year in Morocco to as much as 56.2 kilograms per year in Senegal. The regional per caput consumption is 10.4 kilograms and is expected to increase by 26 percent to 13 kilograms per year in 1990. The supply to meet the demand is presently 1,438,900 tons and is expected to rise by 109 percent to 3,005,600 tons in 1990, not only to meet the increased per caput demand but also to meet the demand of the Region's population (which will have increased 66 percent).

Although fish consumption in Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau and Guinea is presently under 10 kilograms per caput per year, it would seem reasonable to assume that their fish consumption could rise quite rapidly to that of neighbouring countries (about 20 kilograms per year) if local supplies were available. In spite of the projected increase in per caput consumption in Nigeria by 76 percent to 8.5 kilograms per caput in 1990, the consumption would still be low relative to the rest of the Region. It is possible that actual consumption could double to 17 kilograms per person per year (as projected in the Nigerian Plan) and, if so, the Nigerian demand would be doubled to 1,674,400 tons per year. Zaire is another country with a large population and low fish consumption, and it is probable that demand for fish will increase considerably as marketing channels improve. It is evident that the Region's demand for fish will be highly sensitive to demand in such countries as Nigeria and Zaïre, and that the forecast demand for food fish, as presented in Table 7.1, is probably highly conservative.

Table 7.1 Fish and fishery products - present consumption (1971/73) and estimated demand (1990)

	Fish food balance sheet - average 1971/73							1990				Underlying hypothesis
	Production	Feed	Imports	Exports	Total supply	Population	Per caput (p.c.) supply	Population1/	Projected p.c. demand	Total demand based on increase of		Annual rate of growth of p.c. P.C.E. 1990/75	Demand function2/	Income elasticity of demand
										population	pop. and income
	'000 tons live weight					'000	kg	'000	kg	'000 tons l.w.		%
Morocco	290.5	123.4	0.1	97.1	70.1	16,026	4.4	27,633	6.1	121.6	168.6	1.9	LL	1.0
Ex - Spanish Sahara	4.0	-	· · ·	2.5	1.5	73	20.0	89	22.8	1.8	2.0	3.6	SL	0.5
Mauritania	21.03/	· · ·	· · ·	4.2	16.8	1,208	13.9	1,795	14.6	25.0	26.2	1.2	SL	0.5
Senegal	282.8	17.5	0.4	34.5	-231.2	4,114	56.2	6,408	58.2	360.1	372.9	1.5	SL	0.3
Gambia	8.4	-	0.2	2.4	6.2	481	12.9	694	14.1	9.0	9.8	4.0	SL	0.8
Cape Verde	4.6	-	0.0	2.0	2.6	279	9.3	379	10.1	3.5	3.8	1.3	SL	0.8
Guinea Bissau	1.6	-	0.6	· · ·	2.2	498	4.4	695	6.1	3.1	4.2	1.3	LL	1.0
Guinea	14.0	-	6.0	-	20.0	4,108	4.9	6,538	6.0	32.0	39.2	1.2	LL	1.0
Sierra Leone	44.3	-	13.1	0.0	57.4	2,771	20.7	4,419	22.4	91.5	99.0	0.5	LL	0.9
Liberia	23.0	-	3.1	0.9	25.2	1,592	15.8	2,500	20.8	39.5	52.0	1.7	LL	0.9
Ivory Coast	64.7	-	31.7	7.4	89.0	4,527	19.7	7,358	26.1	145.0	192.0	2.0	LL	0.8
Ghana	231.0	-	48.6	6.0	273.6	9,079	30.1	15,710	30.6	472.9	480.6	0.2	SL	0.8
Togo	10.7	-	8.5	0.1	19.1	2,070	9.2	3,494	12.8	32.1	44.7	1.3	LL	1.4
Benin	32.9	-	5.3	1.0	37.2	2,833	13.1	4,681	16.9	61.3	79.1	1.0	LL	1.4
Nigeria	213.84/	-	50.9	0.5	264.2	58,013	4.6	98,497	8.5	453.0	837.2	3.5	LL	1.0
Cameroon	72.6	-	13.3	3.8	82.1	6,049	13.6	9,030	17.3	122.8	156.2	1.7	LL	0.8
Equat. Guinea	4.0	-	0.4	· · ·	4.4	294	15.0	410	19.7	6.2	8.1	1.7	LL	0.9
Gabon	4.0	-	4.7	-	8.7	511	17.0	593	18.6	10.1	11.0	2.4	SL	0.5
Sao Tome and Principe	0.8	-	0.2	0.0	1.0	76	13.2	88	17.6	1.2	1.5	1.8	LL	0.9
Congo	18.5	-	12.4	0.0	30.9	1,249	24.7	2,032	26.7	50.2	54.3	2.0	SL	0.5
Zaïre	123.9	-	71.7	0.1	195.5	22,764	8.6	37,061	9.8	318.7	363.2	0.9	LL	0.8
Total CECAF	1,471.1	140.9	271.2	162.5	1,438.9	138,615	10.4	230,104	13.1	2,360.6	3,005.6

^1/ UN Medium Variant

^2/ LL = double logarithmic function log y = a + b log x where y is consumption and x is the private consumption expenditure p.c. SL = semi logarithmic function y = a + b log x

^3/ Excluding landings of foreign vessels

^4/ Including direct foreign landings estimated at about 50,000 tons

Source: FAO Yearbook of Fishery Statistics and estimates

The weight of non-tuna fish caught in the CECAF Region is presently about 3½ million tons. The weight caught in 1990 will depend on resource management measures taken by individual countries in their fishing zones, but it is indicated by Gulland (1972) that catches may not be much higher than 4.2 million tons. A purely speculative picture of what the production, imports and exports of each country might resemble in 1990 is presented in Table 7.2. Whereas in 1975 about 2 million tons of CECAF-caught fish were sent outside the Region, and mainly to Europe, it is expected that by 1990 the local African demand in itself will be approaching the 1975 CECAF catch. Nevertheless, due to proximity of markets and the prices to be obtained in the European market, much of the fish caught off Northwest Africa will probably continue to be sent to Europe. Indeed it could be expected that no Moroccan exports will go to the rest of Africa and that 75 percent of ex - Spanish Saharian exports, 50 percent of Mauritanian exports and 25 percent of Senegalese fish exports will go to Europe rather than to the rest of Africa.

Due to expansion of fishing zones and the increase in locally-based fishing fleets, the number of foreign-based distant water vessels operating in the Region may have greatly decreased by 1990. Indeed perhaps only 500,000 tons of CECAF - caught fish may be landed in South European ports (probably mainly in Spain and Portugal) and a maximum of 500,000 tons may be caught by foreign - based vessels not originating from South European countries. Between 100-200,000 tons of tuna could be caught in the Region in 1990. In view of the low projected demand for Nigeria (which in reality might require 600,000 tons of imports to satisfy the demand of 1,674,000 tons) and the optimistic assumption that many countries will be landing increased catches, the main conclusion from this preliminary analysis is that imports into the Region will not be less than 150,000 tons in 1990. To some extent this import total could be reduced by catches of distant water vessels based in Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon fishing off Angola, Namibia and South Africa, but such catches will depend on resource management measures taken in the ICSEAF area.

It is emphasized that a number of the estimates used in this section are purely speculative and should be treated with considerable caution. Nevertheless it is hoped that these first estimates will stimulate further study of the size of landings to be expected and the implications of these landings on resource management, trade and socio-economic development of the fishery sector in individual countries of the Region.

7.2 National Fishery Plans in Selected Countries

The Government of Morocco projects that, within the 1973-77 Plan, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase on average by 7.5 percent per annum. The value of primary products is expected to increase on average by 3.6 percent annually (with the value of fish and fish products increasing by 5.2 percent). The secondary sector, which includes mining, is to annually increase its product value by 11 percent, and the value of services in the tertiary sector is to increase annually by 7 percent. Per caput private consumption expenditure is expected to rise by 1.8 to 2.0 percent per annum. Capital expenditure by government in the fishery sector (excluding harbour facilities) is to approximate 105 million dirhams (about U.S.$ 24.4 million). Objectives of government fishery policy during the Plan are to include improvement in monitoring and management of the fish resources, a doubling of per caput fish consumption, and progressive state intervention in the sector by the use of grants, loans, purchase and management of nearwater vessels, and through taking equity in joint ventures.

Table 7.2 Speculative estimate of fish production and demand (1990)

thousand tons liveweight
Country	Production						Demand		Export (import)
	1971/73			1990
	Freshwater	Marine	Total	Freshwater	Marine	Total	1971/73	1990	to Europe	to Africa
Morocco	·	·	290.5	·	500.0	500.0	70.1	168.6	331.4	·
Ex-Spanish Sahara	·	·	4.0	·	200.0	200.0	1.5	2.0	135.0	45.0
Mauritania	10.0	11.0	21.0	20.0	180.0	200.0	16.8	26.2	86.9	86.9
Senegal	20.0	262.8	282.8	30.0	570.0	600.0	231.2	372.9	56.8	170.4
Gambia	0.8	7.6	8.4	2.0	28.0	30.0	6.2	9.8	·	20.2
Cape Verde	·	·	4.6	·	10.0	10.0	2.6	3.8	·	6.2
Guinea Bissau	·	·	1.6	5.0	45.0	50.0	2.2	4.2	·	45.8
Guinea	·	·	14.0	5.0	45.0	50.0	20.0	39.2	·	10.8
Sierra Leone	·	·	44.3	10.0	90.0	100.0	57.4	99.0	·	1.0
Liberia	4.0	19-0	23.0	5.0	45.0	50.0	25.2	52.0	·	(2.0)
Ivory Coast	11.0	53.7	64.7	15.0	85.0	100.0	89.0	192.0	·	(92.0)
Ghana	35.8	195.2	231.0	50.0	400.0	450.0	273.6	480.6	·	(30.6)
Togo	3.0	7.7	10.7	5.0	15.0	20.0	19.1	44.7	·	(24.7)
Benin	19.1	13.8	32.9	30.0	20.0	50.0	37.2	79.1	·	(29.1)
Nigeria	49.6	164.2	213.8	100.0	500.0	600.0	264.2	837.2	·	(237.2)
Cameroon	18.0	54.6	72.6	20.0	80.0	100.0	82.1	156.2	·	(56.2)
Equatorial Guinea	·	·	4.0	2.0	6.0	8.0	4.4	8.1	·	(0.1)
Gabon	0.4	3.6	4.0	10.0	80.0	90.0	8.7	11.0	·	79.0
Sao Tome and Principe	·	·	0.8	·	5.0	5.0	1.0	1.5	·	3.5
Congo	6.0	12.5	18.5	20.0	40.0	60.0	30.9	54.3	·	5.7
Zaïre	110.1	13.8	123.9	160.0	20.0	180.0	195.5	363.2	·	(183.2)
Total	287.8	819.5	1,471.1	489.0	2,964.0	3,453.0	1,438.9	3,005.6	610.1	(180.6)

Source: CECAF Project estimates

The present Senegalese Plan (1973-77) projects the GNP growth per annum to be 57 percent. Within the fishery sector the per annum increase in value of production is to be 4.8 percent. Total fish production is targeted to increase from 248,000 tons in 1972 to 301,000 tons in 1977. The general Government fishery policy is to assist the maritime fishermen in the socio-economic context so as to establish a modern artisanal fishery, and the creation and organization of infrastructure, administration and management structures so as to induce greater fishing activity throughout the fishing sector. As part of the Government's commitment to assist fishery development, a number of imaginative projects have been initiated or planned, in almost all cases with technical and financial assistance from bilateral and multilateral organizations. In fact the Plan's target for national landings was surpassed in 1973 and, in 1974, over 347,000 tons were landed.

A Government development Plan for the Gambia is due to be published in 1976. The priority of fishery policy is to ensure that the internal fish demand is fully satisfied from local landings. Although the prospects for a substantial fishery sector of the size of Senegal or Morocco are not practical due to the limited territorial waters, there are good prospects for establishing a sizeable sector which would be a large percentage contributor to GNP and export earnings of the country. Two important joint ventures have been established between the Government of Gambia and interests from Ghana and Japan. These joint ventures are export - oriented and have increased the opportunities for diversifying the market away from just home consumption. As in a number of countries, a principal issue of policy within the fishery sector will be the encouragement of industrial fisheries in harmony with the development of artisanal fisheries.

The Development Plan of Sierra Leone for 1974/75 to 1978/79 sets out in detail the macro - economic aims of the country and the objectives of fishery development. GDP growth is projected to be 6.2 percent per annum, with agricultural growth at 4.6 percent, manufacturing at 10.6 percent and mining at 4.8 percent. Population growth is estimated at 2.6 percent per annum and per caput income is projected to increase by approximately 3.6 percent per annum. The annual increase in demand for fish is expected to be 5.1 percent (assuming an income elasticity of demand for fish at 0.9) and it is planned that the country be self-sufficient in fish before the end of the Plan period. Development aims of the fishing sector which are in line with the overall development policy are as follows:

(i) to increase production of fish and other aquatic resources to satisfy demand for cheap protein;

(ii) to increase foreign exchange earnings through export of fish and shellfish;

(iii) to modernize the industry through the use of a wide range of suitable motorised boats using improved techniques;

(iv) to establish the necessary infrastructure facilities to support industrial fisheries;

(v) to promote research activities into all aspects of fisheries to ensure rational utilisation;

(vi) to improve training and extension services to fishermen; and

(vii) to establish an efficient pricing, marketing and distribution system.

Liberia currently has no Development Plan, although a UNDP/IBRD team is preparing a Plan. The company Mesurado Co. Ltd. dominates the country's fishing and fish marketing system, and the Government seems unwilling to encourage operations which might compete with the company. The artisanal fisheries, for example, receive no Government assistance.

The Ivory Coast Plan for 1976 to 1980 has not yet been published. However the planners working on the document aim to provide on average 30 grams per day of animal protein per caput by 1995. The intake in 1980 is expected to be 17.5 grams of animal protein per person per day (increased from 15.4 grams in 1975), and thus 240,000 tons of meat and 240,000 tons of fish will be required to feed the population of about 8 million (giving a fish consumption of about 30 kilograms per person per year). This requirement can only be met by a massive increase in imports and/or local production. The fishery service hopes to expand locally-based fishing through increased investment and through negotiation with neighbouring countries to permit fishing by Ivory Coast vessels, so that 160,000 tons will be landed in the Ivory Coast (20,000 tons of which - mainly tuna - will be exported). Provisional information on the Plan indicates that the GDP is projected to increase by 8 percent per year, and that 16 milliard FCFA (about U.S.$ 80 million) will be spent on modernisation of the fishing fleet. If the ambitious targets of Ivory Coast planners are achieved, then 450,000 tons of fish will be required in the Ivory Coast in 1990 to give a per caput annual fish consumption of 36.1 kilograms. This is clearly a very much higher projection of demand than that given in Table 7.1 of 26.1 kilograms.

The guidelines for the Ghanaian five - year development plan of 1975 to 1980 state that the aim is to achieve GDP growth of 5.5 percent per annum. The population will continue to grow at the rate of 2.7 percent and per caput consumption is to grow by at least 2 percent annually. The fishery policy aims to ensure greater availability of fish to increase protein intake, and at the same time to increase employment opportunities in the fishing sector. The problems peculiar to fishing have been listed as: the neglect of inland fisheries development, inadequate supply of equipment and spare parts, inadequate repair, landing and storage facilities, and the lack of any significant impact on the productivity of the small operator. During the course of the Plan, the Elmina fishing harbour will be built to provide additional landing facilities for fishing along the coast, and studies will be undertaken to site two more fishing harbours, one in the Western Region and the other between Ada and Keta.

The objects of the Second Economic and Social Development Plan of Togo 1971-75 in regard to the fishery sector were to diminish fish imports, achieve a better distribution of production (i.e. increase freshwater fish production), and increase local production, from all sources, by 11,000 tons. During the Second Plan it was planned to spend 772.7 million FCFA (about U.S.$ 3.3 million) on investments in the fishery sector, over 60 percent of which was to be spent on purchasing vessels. There is no record of how much money was in fact spent on investment in fisheries during the Plan but it is clear that no vessels were purchased. It is probable that only 30 million FCFA were spent on building a laboratory, giving credit to fishermen, etc. Nevertheless, out of a non - fishery budget, some 400 million FCFA (U.S.$ 1.8 million) were spent on building the fishery quay and this infrastructural project will have a considerable impact on fishery development in the country.

The Third Development Plan (1976-80) of Togo has not yet been published so no clear objects for the fishery sector have been established. Nevertheless it has been agreed that about 890 million FCFA be set aside for investment in fishing vessels and on shore facilities of the Office National des Pêches. Pour further trawlers of the 23 metre length type already operating are to be purchased, as are two freezer trawlers and six handline boats. These fishing vessel investments are to be complemented by investments in cold stores, insulated and refrigerated trucks, and vehicles. Other projects to be paid for out of Plan funds are a net factory, an extension to the fishing port, and an investment study. This investment study is to be undertaken by a French consulting company in 1976 and will cover detailed design and costs of fishing vessels, cold stores, etc., up to the preparation of tender documents, so that expenditure on such recommended investments can be undertaken during the Plan period.

Nigeria has a detailed Development Plan to cover the years 1975-80. The projected GDP growth rate averages 9.5 percent per annum, and per caput income is projected to rise 6.5 percent annually from N 205 to N 290 (U.S.$ 470 at 1974 constant prices). Population is expected to grow by 2.5 percent per annum. The objectives of development in the fishery sector during the Plan are:

(i) to increase domestic fish production so as to meet the local fish demand;

(ii) to earn foreign exchange by exporting products like shrimps;

(iii) to encourage local manufacturing of fish products such as fishmeal and dehydrated fish;

(iv) to provide employment to Nigerians especially young school leavers in the coastal areas;

(v) to increase the per caput income of indigenous fishermen with the proposed package type of development (which would result in increased catch and better prices due to improved processing and storage facilities).

There is clearly a divergence of views on present production and consumption of fish in Nigeria. Whereas in Table 7.1 it is estimated that fish consumption approximates 4.6 kilograms per caput per year, the Nigerian planners estimate that consumption is 11.8 kilograms per caput per year. These two estimates, when used to project demand in 1990, can be so divergent that the impact on demand in the CECAF Region is considerable. It is thus obvious that the two estimates need to be reconciled in the near future if effective regional demand projections are to be determined.

The overall targets of the 1975-80 Third National Development Plan are ambitious and the target for the fishery sector is particularly so. In comparison with an annual growth rate of 4.8 percent in overall food production, fish production is targeted to annually increase by 10 percent. Besides the targeted increase in fish production from the present 700,000 tons to 1,190,000 tons, it is projected that imports will increase from the present (estimated) 350,000 tons to 450,000 tons. Over U.S.$ 150 million has been allotted for capital expenditure in the fisheries field over the next five years, more than half of it through the Federal Department of Fisheries and the remainder through the fisheries services of the various states. About U.S.$ 40 million are allocated for the construction of a big fish terminal on Tin Can Island in Lagos, and the expenditure of about U.S.$ 35 million on establishment of the Nigerian National Fishing Company is expected to lead to the supply of about 30,000 tons of fish per annum. The Government is also investing in a shrimp fishing company through a joint venture with a foreign company.

The 1971-75 Gabon Development Plan forecast a GDP annual growth of 7 percent. Within the Plan, investments were to be made on establishing a fishing company and a chain of cold stores. Both these projects were the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry and not of the Ministry of Agriculture, but neither came to fruition. The 1976-80 Plan has not yet been published.

There appears to be little commitment by the Government of the People's Republic of the Congo to assist the marine fishing industry. Some investment has been provided for expansion of a Congolese - Italian joint venture, but no investment is envisaged for providing fishing port facilities (particularly for tuna transhipment) or credit for artisanal fishermen.

The dominant feature in the small marine fishery of Zaire is the state-owned food company, Société Générale d'Alimentation, which, through a subsidiary (PEMARZA), owns a fleet of 9 inshore and 2 freezer trawlers. The fleet is old and difficult to maintain and there have been a number of management problems with the consequence that annual catches have been falling. The food company does not intend to replace the present vessels but rather expects to expand on the present operation (as in so many countries) of importing frozen Soviet-caught fish. Cold storage capacity is thus being increased at the port of Matadi and in Kinshasa. It is possible that this frozen fish-importing operation may come to equal in volume the already sizeable import of dried and cured fish. The balance of payments of Zaire is highly dependent on the price of copper remaining high. At present the copper price is low (about L 600 per ton) and the country is experiencing a critical payments deficit. In spite of this shortage of foreign exchange, the Government has not discouraged the import of foods such as meat and fish, and indeed appears to encourage more the import of foodstuffs than investment in food-producing activities. Catches could be considerably increased from the great freshwater lakes of Central Africa that Zaïre shares with Zambia, Tanzania, Burundi and Uganda. A UNDP/IBRD team is presently writing a Plan and it is hoped that implementation can start within two years. It is probable that a great deal more attention will be given to projects in the rural areas than has been the case in the recent past.

7.3 Prospects for Planning and Development

As has been seen in the previous section, the majority of CECAF countries have some sort of Development Plan. However, the approach to planning varies greatly from one country to another. Most nations draw up Plans which run for a fixed time period, although the only common theme between such Plans appears to be the approach of listing items to be financed by capital expenditure. In practice the actual expenditure often varies markedly from the projected expenditure. There is no rigid centrally planned economy in the Region and all plans are similar with regard to their extreme flexibility. The Plans of a number of countries set targets for the fish catch and sometimes base targeted catch and imports on protein requirements of the population.

Some countries, such as Benin and Zaire, have no Development Plan and no general documents which give planners in a sector such as fisheries any indications of government policy, objectives or targets to attain. For example some data such as income projections, income elasticity of demand for foodstuffs, and per caput consumption expenditure on the national level are of basic importance if a fishery development plan is to be drawn up. On the other hand, fishery development planners need to have a good idea of the potential of the country's fish resources, fishing technology, and manpower resources, so that realistic projections of the capabilities of the fishing sector can be passed on to national planners. Hamlisch (1973) has succinctly described the general relationship between sectoral and national planning as follows: "National plans cannot be realistically formulated without a proper economic appraisal of sectoral proposals and their contribution to national economic and social objectives cannot be properly ascertained except within the framework of the national plan. Good planning, therefore, requires a constant two - way flow of information between the planners at the higher (national) level and at the lower (sectoral) levels, and willingness on the part of both to accept adjustments". The criteria by which sectoral objectives, backed up by strategies involving programmes and projects, are judged must be in sympathy with the government's general system of priorities, and they must be related to what is in practice possible. This implies that the strategies must be acceptable to those outside government, such as producers, consumers, traders, and investors without whose complementary decisions implementation may not be possible. Thus the role that government decisions can play in providing incentives and establishing the conditions within which others will take action is crucial.

The three objectives of any national fishery plan generally involve, to a greater or lesser degree depending on the country concerned, (i) fish resource management, (ii) the need to provide adequate fish supplies to meet demand, and (iii) balanced socio-economic development of the fishery sector to meet national socio-economic needs. In order to determine the priority of the objectives and formulate the supporting development strategies, it is essential that adequate data be collected and analysed. If adequate data are not immediately available, then assumptions will have to be made on which judgements and decisions on development strategy can be based. As further data become available, then the assumptions and judgements can be modified and improved.

Some of the development strategies more commonly used in support of achieving the objectives of a fishery plan are (i) an increase in small-scale fishing activities (artisanal development), (ii) promotion of the processing industry and exports, (iii) foreign exchange savings by limiting fish imports or vessel spare parts, or encouraging local production increases, (iv) joint ventures and international cooperation to secure foreign fish supplies, (v) infrastructure and improved internal marketing, (vi) expansion of the inshore fishing fleet with vessels of up to 40 metres in length, and (vii) aquaculture and inland fisheries development. As a contribution to encouraging further study, analysis and discussion, a tentative order of priority of those strategies appropriate to CECAF countries has been listed in Table 7.3. On the basis of this admittedly subjective analysis, it could be concluded that the strategies of principal concern to the Region are artisanal development, the need to expand locally-based fishing fleets, and the need to improve processing (including freezing and cold storage) facilities often linked to promoting export markets.

The implementation of development strategies involves the formulation and execution of programmes and projects. Programmes normally refer to on - going actions that might involve subsidies, incentives, taxation or other regulatory devices whereas projects involve investment over a set period for a specific activity that directly or indirectly affects productivity.

The choice of programmes in support of development strategies is multiple and the options need careful analysis before implementation. The priority of these programmes will obviously depend on the state of fishery development in each country. For example some countries might prefer to subsidise local fleet operations, whereas other countries might prefer to increase fish prices to local fishermen, through increasing the entry tax on imported fish. Countries such as Mauritania give priority to raising government revenue ' through licensing foreign vessels fishing in its fishing zone.

A number of investment projects are already being implemented in the Region. However substantial investment will continue to be required and an indication of some investment possibilities is given in Table 7.4. The ability of countries to attract foreign investment or to mobilise capital financing from the country's own resources will depend very much on the government's general attitude to investment and the ability of government institutions to formulate realistic projects and to establish effective executing agencies. The role of the fishery 'Service' or 'Department' is therefore crucial if investment projects in the fishery sector are to be undertaken.

One of the more difficult decisions in development planning concerns the choice of investment between projects which yield high returns, but in one concentrated area, and projects which yield low returns but with benefits spread over a wider area affecting many people. Indeed the balance between conflicting criteria - whether, for instance, to maximize economic growth or to ensure a fairer distribution of economic rewards - must ultimately be a matter for (often political) judgement.

Table 7.3 Indicative priority of fishery development strategies

	Processing and exports	Artisanal dev.	Foreign exchange savings	International coop. to secure supplies	Internal marketing	Fleet dev.	Inland and aquaculture
Morocco	1	·	·	·	2	3	·
Mauritania	3	2	·	·	·	1	·
Senegal	2	3	·	·	·	1	·
Gambia	2	3	·	·	·	1	·
Gape Verde	2	·	3	·	·	1	·
Guinea Bissau	2	3	·	·	·	1	·
Guinea	2	3	·	·	·	1	·
Sierra Leone	3	2	·	·	·	1	·
Liberia	·	1	·	2	·	·	3
Ivory Coast	·	3	·	1	2	·	·
Ghana	·	3	1	2	·	·	·
Togo	·	2	3	·	·	·	1
Benin	·	2	3	·	·	·	1
Nigeria	·	3	·	·	1	2	·
Cameroon	·	3	·	2	1	·	4
Equatorial Guinea	·	1	2	·	·	·	3
Gabon	2	3	·	·	·	1	·
Sao Tome and Principe	2	3	·	·	·	1	·
Congo	2	·	·	·	·	1	3
Zaire	·	·	·	3	1	·	2

Source: CECAF Project estimates

Table 7.4 Summary of selected investment possibilities

Country	Possibility	Comment
Morocco	Marketing	In progress through O.N.P.
	Fleet increase	In progress through O.N.P.
	Southern fishing port	Under study
Mauritania	Fishing port	Commitment by IBRD
	Fishery control vessels	Recently purchased
	Fleet expansion	Investment possible
Senegal	Artisanal development	Bilateral aid
	Tuna vessels	Recently purchased
	Cold storage	Recently constructed
	Artisanal ports	Bilateral aid
	Fishmeal plant	Under study
	Fleet expansion and modernisation	In progress
	Fishery control vessels	Bilateral aid
	Refrigerated cargo vessels	Under study
Sierra Leone	Inshore vessels	Investment possible
	Artisanal development	Investment possible
	Processing industries	Investment possible
	Aquaculture	Investment possible
Liberia	Artisanal development	Investment possible
Ivory Coast	Cold storage	Recently constructed
	Fleet modernisation	In progress
Ghana	Joint venture in Gambia	In progress through private business
	Tuna cannery	Private business investment
	Tuna vessels	Recently purchased
Togo	Fleet increase	Under study
Benin	Lagoon development	Under study
Nigeria	Fishing port	Government commitment
	Long range fleet	Government commitment
	Shrimp fleet	In progress
	Aquaculture	Under study
	Artisanal ports	Government commitment
Cameroon	Artisanal development	Bilateral aid
Gabon	Fleet increase	Investment possible
	Processing industries	Investment possible
Congo	Fishing port	Investment possible
Zaïre	Fleet modernisation	Investment possible