NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition 2023: Statistics and trends

1.2. Prevalence of Food Insecurity Based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale

The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) is an estimate of the proportion of the population facing moderate or severe constraints on their ability to obtain sufficient food over the course of a year. People face moderate food insecurity when they are uncertain of their ability to obtain food and have been forced to reduce, at times over the year, the quality and/or quantity of food they consume due to lack of money or other resources. Severe food insecurity means that individuals have likely run out of food, experienced hunger and, at the most extreme, have gone for days without eating, putting their health and well-being at serious risk.

Food insecurity as measured by the FIES refers to limited access to food, at the level of individuals or households, due to lack of money or other resources. The severity of food insecurity is measured using data collected with the Food Insecurity Experience Scale survey module (FIES-SM), based on a set of eight questions (FAO et al., 2022). One of the strengths of the FIES is its capacity to capture ongoing events that affect personal and household income and the ability to obtain food in a timely manner and in enough quantity to meet daily requirements (FAO et al., 2023).

The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity was 29.6 percent globally in 2022, at the same level as in 2021. In the Arab States, it was 36.6 percent in 2022, 7 percentage points higher than the global average (Figure 5, Table 3). From 2021 food insecurity decreased by 3.4 percent in the Arab States. The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity was the most elevated in Arab LDCs (63.4 percent), in low-income countries (58.3 percent), and in conflict countries (53.3 percent) in 2022. The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity was the lowest in high income countries (16.0 percent). In conflict countries, moderate or severe food insecurity was twice as high (53.3 percent) as in non-conflict countries (26.8 percent).

Severe food insecurity was 20.4 percent in Arab LDCs, 19.1 percent in conflict countries, and 18.9 percent in low-income countries.

Moderate or severe food insecurity increased worldwide from 21.7 percent in 2015 to 29.6 percent (by 36.4 percent) in 2022 (Figure 5, Table 3). The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity was higher in the Arab States than in the world in all years from 2015 to 2022, on average by 6.8 percentage points. Both moderate or severe food insecurity and severe food insecurity were higher in the region than the world average in all years between 2015 and 2022, on average by 8.6 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points, respectively.

At the global level, the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity increased between 2015 and 2022. In the same period, moderate or severe food insecurity increased in all income groups among Arab States, except in high-income countries, where it decreased by 23.1 percent. The increase in moderate or severe food insecurity between 2015 and 2022 was the most significant in Arab LDCs (24.8 percent), in lower-middle-income countries (22.6 percent), and in low-income countries (22.0 percent). Severe food insecurity increased most outstandingly in lower-middle-income countries (29.1 percent), in non-conflict countries (24.7 percent) and in Arab LDCs (21.4 percent).

The number of severely food-insecure people was 900.1 million people globally, out of which 61.0 million lived in the Arab States in 2022 (Figure 6, Table 4). In the Arab region, 22.7 million of severely food-insecure people lived in low-income countries, 22.3 million in lower-middle-income countries, and 21.4 million in the Arab States LDCs.

The number of moderately or severely food-insecure people was 2.4 billion people worldwide, out of which 170.1 million lived in the Arab States in 2022 (Figure 7, Table 5). In the Arab region, low-income countries had 70.1 million moderately or severely food-insecure people, compared to 62.4 million in lower-middle-income countries, 28.2 million in upper-middle-income countries and 9.4 million in high-income countries. Between 2015 and 2022, food insecurity increased across all country income groups, with the exception of the high-income country group, which saw a decline of 1.8 million. The rise in food insecurity was the highest among Arab LDCs (22.7 million people), low-income countries (22.5 million people), and lower-middle-income countries (17.0 million people).

The prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity (Figure 8) was extremely elevated in Comoros (79.7 percent), in Somalia (79.5 percent), and in Yemen (67.2 percent). Poverty and vulnerability to climate shocks are among the major drivers behind the food insecurity in Comoros. In Somalia, in the period October–December 2022, about 5.6 million people experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC, 2022a), classified as Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above⁵). Among these, 1.5 million people are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and 214 000 in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). The main driver of food insecurity is conflict and a high number of internally displaced people, and given the droughts, the dependence on imported grains. In Yemen, approximately 17 million people, over half the population, experienced high levels of Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), from which 6.1 million people were classified in IPC Phase 4 from October to December 2022 (IPC 2023c). The main drivers of food insecurity beyond conflict are high international food and fuel prices and the devaluation of the national currency. ⁵ Hunger hotspots and “acute food insecurity” refers to the indicator of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC/CH). For more details see for example page 2 of FAO-WFP, 2023.

Between 2014–2016 and 2020–2022, the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity (Figure 8) more than doubled in Mauritania. It increased significantly in Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya. The major driver behind the worrying multiplication of food insecurity in Lebanon is the economic-social crisis. The unfolding economic and financial crisis started in October 2019 and has been further exacerbated by the triple economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, the massive Port of Beirut explosion in August 2020, and the soaring food prices since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Its nominal food price inflation was the highest in the world recently, for example, at 350 percent from January 2023 to April 2023 (Gatti et al., 2023). Between September and December 2022, 37 percent of the total population was estimated to be in acute food insecurity situations⁶ (IPC, 2022b). In Mauritania, high food prices continue to worsen the food security situation, while flooding in 2022, has further aggravated the conditions of vulnerable households. In addition, as of November 2022, the country hosted over 100 000 refugees, mainly from Mali (FAO, 2023). The pandemic generated spikes in food insecurity in Morocco and Tunisia. Tunisia is experiencing a deep political and economic crisis, furthermore, three years of drought have dried up Tunisian reservoirs, threatening harvests (FAO, 2022c). Morocco has been in a drought since 2022. In addition, many countries in the region heavily depend on imported foodstuff and fertilizers from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, including wheat as a staple food, which makes the region vulnerable to the price and supply shock effects of the war in Ukraine. In 2021 the Russian Federation and Ukraine together accounted for about 75 percent of the total wheat and wheat flour imports of Egypt and Lebanon, close to 40 percent in Tunisia, more than 30 percent in Jordan and around 20 percent in Morocco (FAO, 2022a). ⁶ Hunger hotspots and “acute food insecurity” refers to the indicator of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC/CH). For more details see for example page 2 of FAO-WFP, 2023.

Moderate or severe food insecurity was the lowest in high-income countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (9.8 percent), Kuwait (10.9 percent) and Saudi Arabia (16.7 percent) in 2020-2022, and it decreased in these countries since 2014–2016, in Saudi Arabia significantly, by 24.4 percent.

The prevalence of food insecurity was higher among women than among men, both globally and in the Arab region (Figure 9 and Table 6). Worldwide, the gender gap in moderate or severe food insecurity between men and women was 2.4 percentage points, and in severe food insecurity 1.1 percentage points in favour of men in 2022. In the Arab States, the gender gap is higher in moderate or severe food insecurity5.4 percentage points in 2022.

In the Arab region, food insecurity was in all income categories higher for women than for men, except for high income countries. The gender gap in favour of men was the highest in upper-middle-income countries: 13.9 percentage points for moderate food insecurity and 8.3 percentage points for severe food insecurity. In high-income countries, the gender gap works in favour of women: for moderate food insecurity, the gap was 1.8 percentage points, and for severe food insecurity 0.8 percentage point.