Conclusions and recommendations

In recent decades, there has been an explosion in the volume of research on climate-change biology, resulting in many publications each year, particularly over the past ten years (e.g. Björkman and Niemelä, 2015; Juroszek et al., 2020; Peterson, Menon and Li, 2010). Most studies (summarized in Table 5) indicate that, in general, the pest risk from insects, pathogens and weeds will increase in agricultural ecosystems under climate-change scenarios (Choudhary, Kumari and Fand, 2019; Clements, DiTommaso and Hyvönen, 2014; Juroszek et al., 2020), especially in today’s cooler Arctic, boreal, temperate and subtropical regions. Evidence suggests that all climates will be impacted but that the nature and extent of the impact will vary with the ability of production systems and natural ecosystems to adapt and evolve. This is also mostly true for pathogens and insect pests in forestry (Seidl et al., 2017).

Table 5. Examples of recent review articles focusing on climate change and future pest risk for plant ecosystems in agriculture, horticulture, forestry, and unmanaged natural habitats

Climate-smart strategies for controlling pests were recently outlined by Heeb, Jenner and Cook (2019). These and other preventive and curative plant-protection measures will be needed for countries to adapt to a new climate scenario (Almekinders et al., 2019; Erikson and Griffin, 2014; Thomas-Sharma et al., 2016). But consideration will also need to be given to regulatory arrangements, research needs, international cooperation and capacity building, and recommendations on these aspects are outlined in this section of the report.

Policy making and regulatory issues

Adjusting pest risk analysis with regard to climate change

Pest risk analysis provides the scientific justification for all phytosanitary measures, including those developed under the auspices of the IPPC Secretariat. It is suggested that ISPMs relevant to PRA are assessed with regard to their suitability to address issues related to climate change. Pest risk analysis activities need to be intensified at national, regional and international levels and climate-change aspects need to be included in the assessment of pest risk.

Surveillance and monitoring relevant to climate change

Surveillance and monitoring are important tools to detect the introduction of new pests or to monitor their status. It is suggested that ISPMs and guidance on these topics developed under the auspices of the IPPC Secretariat are assessed to determine whether they need revising to take account of the effects of climate change. National, regional and international surveillance and monitoring activities for plant-health threats should be intensified. It is suggested that consideration be given to the development of model templates for multilateral surveillance programmes, especially for developing countries, to demonstrate how such programmes may be set up to offset phytosanitary threats.

Active information exchange and reporting

The international exchange of information on trade flows, pest occurrences and pest interceptions is extremely important to offset the paucity of information generated by scientific research with regard to the impacts of climate change on plant health. It is also critical that information on changes to pest distributions, host range, and adaptability of pests and host plants are shared. It is necessary to enhance the IPPC reporting system, which combines official reporting by contracting parties with other available and published information.