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ArticleVulnerability assessment of Ukrainian forests to climate change as the base of nature-based solutions for mitigation and adaptation
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.A wide range of climatic conditions in Ukraine causes significant regional differences in the vulnerability of forests to climate change. The mitigation/adaptation strategy should be based on assessments of their vulnerability at the regional level. Phytoindication model by prof. Y.P. Didukh (1994) was used to assess forest vulnerability. The model gives a quantitative estimation of climate as one of major environmental factors affecting the distribution, condition and productivity of vegetation on the base of climate-related indicators – continentality, humidity and frost. For these indicators climate suitability scales were calculated. Modeling was carried out for main forest species: Pinus sylvestris L., Quercus robur L., Fagus sylvatica L., Picea abies (L.) H.Karst, Betula pendula Roth., Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Robinia pseudoacacia L. Climate projections based on the Euro CORDEX time series (up to 2100) and 2 scenarios of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) were used. By means of Q-GIS the maps containing zones of suitability to climate for each of studied species were created for current climate conditions and future time series. The directions for strengthening the mitigation and adaptive capacity of forests are considered. The mainstream for nature-based solutions is adaptive sustainable forest management, which provides: 1)optimization of land use structure and increasing the forested area; 2) development and implementation of a national forestry program considering the priorities of climate change and low-carbon development; 3) using wood to substitute greenhouse gas intensive-materials and fossil fuels; 4) best forestry practices through the introduction of modern Climate Smart Forestry principles. Keywords: RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, Euro CORDEX, climate trends, adaptive forest management ID: 3487120 -
ArticleIntegrating adaptive management strategies for coping with climate change impacts on farming households in forest communities of Nigeria
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.Most Nigerians depend on natural ecosystems such as forests, for extensive rain-fed farming and short fallow periods. Forest communities interact with their ecosystems for income, food, nutritional security and livelihood sustenance. It is important to determine the response of these communities to climate change vulnerability through modified livelihood activities. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to assess the perceived impact of climate variability on farming communities in major ecosystems (rainforest, savannah and mangrove) of Nigeria. Using focus group discussions, we identified perceived impacts, traditional adaptive measures and new technologies that communities were adopting to cope with climate change. Over the last 30 years, there were perceived shifts in the rainfall patterns, durations and intensities with negative effects on rain-fed agriculture. Planting operations and cropping calendars had been altered, especially in the savanna, which had the highest incidence of drought and flooding. Climate variability negatively affected food production and available land for farming. Livelihoods most impacted were farming, hunting, fishing, timber and non-timber forest products’ collection. High temperatures, illegal logging and charcoal production were the most important environmental drivers of climate change. While poor governance, poverty and unemployment were the key political and economic elements. Local adaptation strategies included crop rotation, mixed cropping, diversification of trade, water conservation and adjustment of planting calendars based on traditional weather forecast. Sustainable adaptation strategies required included provision of credit facilities, affordable insurance policy; increased supply of drought and disease resistant crops; road networks, favourable forestry regulation; and improved climate information systems. Farmers were struggling with adaptive strategies and required external assistance to cope with climate change. Keywords: adaptive and integrated management; climate change; agriculture; sustainable forest management; food systems. ID: 3474255 -
ArticlePrediction of distribution changes of carpinus laxiflora and C. tschonoskii based on climate change scenarios using MaxEnt model in the Republic of Korea
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.Hornbeams (Carpinus spp.), which are widely distributed in South Korea, are recognized as one of the most abundant species at climax stage in the temperate forests. Although the distribution and vegetation structure of the C. laxiflora community have been reported, little ecological information of C. tschonoskii is available. Little effort was made to examine the distribution shift of these species under the future climate conditions. This study was conducted to predict potential shifts in the distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii in 2050s and 2090s under the two sets of climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution of two species using the occurrence data derived from the 6th National Forest Inventory data as well as climate and topography data. It was found that the main factors for the distribution of C. laxiflora were elevation, temperature seasonality, and mean annual precipitation. The distribution of C. tschonoskii, was influenced by temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal rang. It was projected that the total habitat area of the C. laxiflora could increase by 1.05% and 1.11% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the distributional area of C. tschonoskii could expand under the future climate conditions. These results highlighted that the climate change would have considerable impact on the spatial distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii. These also suggested that ecological information derived from climate change impact assessment study can be used to develop proper forest management practices in response to climate change. Keywords: Carpinus laxiflora, C. tschonoskii, Climate change, Distribution change, MaxEnt ID:3619140
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