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ArticleForest succession by space and time based on climate and landuse changes
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.This research predicted the transition of forest structure by analyzing changes in the dominant vegetation and spatial distribution based on climate and land use changes. The research region involves the mountainous and city vicinity located in Okcheon-gun, Korea. Climate change detailing was carried out until 2100 by employing the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the MaxEnt model was used to predict the land cover change. The data stemming from the above were applied to the Landis-II model. The analysis of forest changes was performed based on the years 2050 and 2100 that showed the most dramatic prediction results of climate changes. Comparing to 2020, the mean minimum temperature fell down by 0.45°C in 2050 and increased by about 0.96°C in 2100. The mean maximum temperature increased by about 0.31°C in 2050 and about 1.96°C in 2100. In the prediction of land cover change, mountainous region exhibited a decreased tendency of agricultural lands in 2050 and 2100, and region city vicinity showed a decrease in residential lands, demonstrating very small land cover changes of the forest in both regions. As for the predicted vegetation change, both regions showed a decrease in the dominant area of Pinus densiflora, Pinus Koraiensis, and Pinus rigida, on the other hand, showing an increase in the dominant area of Quercus serrate, Quercus variabilis, and Quercus aliena. In conclusion, the future forest vegetation of two regions showed a decreased tendency in the alien species that could not reproduce under natural conditions, tree species that grow in cold climate regions, and the reforestaion species that were planted due to a necessity of human beings, whereas the area of Quercus species, which are mainly distributed to a relatively warm climate, increased. Therefore, in order to determine tree species for restoration where interfered nature and area that need logging, it should be decided based on the predicted vegetation change in a given area to maximize the forest function. Keywords: Forest transition; Climate change; Landuse change; LANDIS-II; Sustainable forest management ID: 3621835 -
ArticlePredicted climate change impact on natural teak forests in the Greater Mekong sub-region
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable hardwood species. Natural teak forests, largely distributed in South Asia and Southeast Asia, but they are in danger because of over-exploitation, non-sustainable management, encroachment, and potentially the long-term effect of climate change. The objectives of this research are to predict the presence and future geographical range of natural teak forests in the Greater Mekong Sub-region, and to determine the effectiveness of protected areas for in-situ conservation. Geo-referenced species occurrences of natural teak across the Mekong region were gathered from previous studies and ongoing ITTO Teak Project in Mekong. In addition, potential environmental requirement variables were developed or gathered from various sources. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt Model), a present-only spatial distribution model was employed to generate present and predicted species range in 2050 under the CMIP6 scenarios. The results of species distribution models show that the suitable habitats of native teak are likely stable by 2050 as the result of wide climatic tolerance range. However, its distribution in southern Myanmar and northeast Lao PDR would loss climatic suitable habitats, whereas semievergreen forests in northern Myanmar are becoming more suitable by all scenarios. Keywords: Distribution range, teak, conservation, Mekong, protected areas ID: 3486560 -
ArticleEstablishment of seed zones based on native plant species
XV World Forestry Congress, 2-6 May 2022
2022Also available in:
No results found.Since forest ecosystems constitute a complex ecosystem, the health of the ecosystem must be maintained. Seed zones are areas of relative climatic similarity, and movement of seeds within them should help minimize maladaptation. This study intends to build Korean seed zones by applying the US seed zone construction method.In the United States, winter minimum temperature and annual heat: moisture index (AH:M; aridity) were used to construct seed zones. Climate data for the entire Korean Peninsula was provided by Worldclim. Winter minimum temperature was determined as the minimum value per cell from December through February and was classified into 5°F (2.2°C) bands ranging from <-15° to >35°F (-26.1 to 1.6°C). The AH:M data is average temperature (°C) plus 15°C (to obtain positive values) divided by precipitation in meters. The AH:M map was divided into six discrete classes (<–16, 16–19, 19–21, 21–24, 24–27, >27). Korean provisional seed zones of 65 climatic zones were formed by overlapping both maps. Five native plant species were selected to test correspondence with the provisional seed zones. For Pine(Pinus Densiflora), Oak(Quercus acutissima), Oyster oak(Quercus variabilis), the winter minimum temperature of 15– 20°F and the AH:M of 19–21 and 21–24°C/m accounted for 37%, 43%, and 34%, respectively. Due to the latent habitat area of fern wood(Acer pictum subsp. mono), the Maxent AUC was 0.844, showing a high fit. The winter minimum temperature of 20–25°F and AH:M of 16–19°C/m accounted for 42%. Due to the latent habitat of hornbeam(Carpinus tschonoskii), Maxent AUC was 0.930, showing high accuracy. The winter minimum temperature of 25–30°F and AH:M of <16°C/m occupied 33%. In this study, provisional Korean seed zones were established and their association with five native plant species was identified. This study will be used to define initial seed zones and identify seed zones inhabiting similar climatic zones. Keywords: Provisional seed zones; Climate variables; Ecosystem; MaxEnt; Korean Peninsula ID: 3623161
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